Small Craft Advisory 475, NWS Anchorage, AK

107 
FZAK52 PAFC 192351
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
351 PM AKDT Mon Jun 19 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-201245-
351 PM AKDT Mon Jun 19 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
Bogoslof Volcano 53 NM West of Dutch Harbor remains active.

Several weak troughs move eastward across the Bering through Wed 
morning. A high pressure ridge builds into the Central Bering and 
Aleutians by Tue afternoon before moving eastward into the Eastern
Bering/Aleutians Wed afternoon. A 1000 mb low tracks 300 nm west 
of Shemya Wed morning moves 230 nm west of Shemya at 998 mb Thu 
morning. An associated front moves into the Western Aleutians Wed 
afternoon before tracking into the western Bering by Thu morning.

$$

PKZ150-201245-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
351 PM AKDT Mon Jun 19 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ155-201245-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
351 PM AKDT Mon Jun 19 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ160-201245-
Bristol Bay-
351 PM AKDT Mon Jun 19 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 
ft subsiding to 5 ft in the afternoon.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ165-201245-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
351 PM AKDT Mon Jun 19 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt except NW 25 kt from Port Moller E. Seas
8 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ170-201245-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
351 PM AKDT Mon Jun 19 2017

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ171-201245-
Unalaska Bay-
351 PM AKDT Mon Jun 19 2017

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-201245-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
351 PM AKDT Mon Jun 19 2017

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ173-201245-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
351 PM AKDT Mon Jun 19 2017

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ174-201245-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
351 PM AKDT Mon Jun 19 2017

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ175-201245-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
351 PM AKDT Mon Jun 19 2017

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ176-201245-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
351 PM AKDT Mon Jun 19 2017

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ177-201245-
Adak to Kiska-
351 PM AKDT Mon Jun 19 2017

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ178-201245-
Kiska to Attu-
351 PM AKDT Mon Jun 19 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ179-201245-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
351 PM AKDT Mon Jun 19 2017

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ180-201245-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
351 PM AKDT Mon Jun 19 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
5 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ181-201245-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
351 PM AKDT Mon Jun 19 2017

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Areas of fog.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ185-201245-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
351 PM AKDT Mon Jun 19 2017

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Areas of fog.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

128 
FZAK52 PAFC 201200
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
400 AM AKDT Tue Jun 20 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-210045-
400 AM AKDT Tue Jun 20 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

Bogoslof Volcano 53 NM West of Dutch Harbor remains active.

A 998 mb low in the northwestern Pacific will move to 390 nm
southwest of Shemya at 999 mb tonight...then move to 270 nm
southwest of Shemya at 998 mb Wed night. The associated front 
will enter the western Aleutians Wed morning and approach the 
central Aleutians Wed night. High pressure will build over the 
eastern Bering through Wed night. 


$$

PKZ150-210045-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
400 AM AKDT Tue Jun 20 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
8 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ155-210045-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
400 AM AKDT Tue Jun 20 2017

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ160-210045-
Bristol Bay-
400 AM AKDT Tue Jun 20 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt becoming 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ165-210045-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
400 AM AKDT Tue Jun 20 2017

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ170-210045-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
400 AM AKDT Tue Jun 20 2017

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ171-210045-
Unalaska Bay-
400 AM AKDT Tue Jun 20 2017

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt becoming W after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NW wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...S wind 10 kt. Seas 1 foot.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-210045-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
400 AM AKDT Tue Jun 20 2017

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ173-210045-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
400 AM AKDT Tue Jun 20 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ174-210045-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
400 AM AKDT Tue Jun 20 2017

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ175-210045-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
400 AM AKDT Tue Jun 20 2017

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ176-210045-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
400 AM AKDT Tue Jun 20 2017

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ177-210045-
Adak to Kiska-
400 AM AKDT Tue Jun 20 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ178-210045-
Kiska to Attu-
400 AM AKDT Tue Jun 20 2017

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft building to 13 ft in the
afternoon.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ179-210045-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
400 AM AKDT Tue Jun 20 2017

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ180-210045-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
400 AM AKDT Tue Jun 20 2017

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft...except 7 ft in the morning south 
of Cape Newenham. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED...NW wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ181-210045-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
400 AM AKDT Tue Jun 20 2017

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ185-210045-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
400 AM AKDT Tue Jun 20 2017

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
444 PM AKDT Sun Jun 18 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
An upper-level low is moving eastward through the Gulf of Alaska
and strengthening southerly flow aloft for Southcentral Alaska.

The Bering Sea is under the influence of an upper-level low
centered near Cape Lisburne and its northerly flow moving off the
Chukchi Sea.

Southwest Alaska remains under a residual continental flow
pulling into the Gulf of Alaska low. Two other minor circulations
are noted over the Western Bering and North Pacific in the
vicinity of the Aleutians.

The atmosphere has stabilized compared to recent days. Some
showers remain over the Susitna and Matanuska Valleys today.

Most of the region is between shortwaves. The next focus will be
on the Gulf of Alaska shortwave moving up the Southeast coastline
today.

At the surface, High pressure is building into the Northern Gulf
Coast from 1021mb. A cold front stretches from Anaktuvuk Pass to
just south of Nome to the Gulf of Anadyr.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are decent agreement through midday Monday when strength
and location of the Gulf low and Kenai Peninsula / Prince William
Sound high centers begin to lose focus.

For Southcentral, a NAM/GFS blend was preferred. A GFS/ECMWF blend
was used for Southwest and the Aleutians.

The forecast challenge in the short term will be focused on timing
the incoming easterly wave. The NAM is faster and stronger with
the initial vort max and again with a second wave midday Tuesday.
GFS and ECMWF are considerably less excitable. This will have an
impact on precipitation amounts during the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions will continue until 12z Tuesday at which
point ceilings will decrease with incoming precipitation. Winds
will also increase near the same point.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

A generally quiet afternoon and overnight tonight is expected,
with a slight chance of an isolated storm along the Talkeetnas
later this afternoon. Ridging aloft and a lack of disturbances is
why a quiet afternoon and overnight is expected, though extra lift
in the Talkeetnas may be enough for a storm or two.

A North Pacific low will move into the Gulf Monday afternoon.
Ahead of the low, an easterly wave tracking across the Copper
Basin combined with daytime heating, and added moisture from the
wave will result in a better chance of thunderstorms, especially
on the Susitna Valley side of the Talkeetnas on Monday afternoon.
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible once again along the
Alaska Range. Slightly above normal temperatures are expected on
Monday.

The area of rain associated with the low will move into the Copper
River Basin Monday night, and spread westward across much of the
rest of Southcentral by Tuesday. A steady soaking rain is expected
from the wave, but diminishing instability associated with it
will significantly reduce the thunderstorm threat behind the
wave. Overcast skies and rains will make Tuesday to be by far the
coolest day this week.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
A relatively quiet weather pattern ensues through the beginning of
the week as the Southwest remains wedged between two upper level
low pressure systems, with one located over the Bering Strait and
the other in the southern gulf. At the surface, a thermal trough
along the interior extends an axis across the Kuskokwim Valley
into Tuesday. This set up, along with a shortwave moving from the
base of the trough over the Strait, brings scattered showers
through the beginning of the week along with isolated
thunderstorms for the Kuskokwim Valley and western Alaska Range on
tonight and Monday. On Tuesday, showers will taper off from west
to east. The one exception to this will be along the western
Alaska and Aleutian Ranges where wrap around moisture streams in
from the gulf low, which will initiate scattered showers during
peak heating Tuesday and Wednesday. Kept thunderstorm mention out
of the forecast at this time as subsidence drying along a building
ridge over the southern mainland looks like it may be limiting
factor.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

A benign weather pattern is expected through the beginning of the
week across much of the Bering as ridging builds across the
central Bering through Tuesday, shifting east into Wednesday. Low
pressure currently south of the Alaska Peninsula, will bring a
few wrap around showers as far west as the eastern Aleutians
tonight, then taper off on Monday. One other feature to the west
brings showers to the western Aleutians/Bering tonight as a weak
disturbance aloft moves in from the North Pacific. The next
pattern shift begins on Tuesday with a developing low off of
Kamchatka which is expected to move a front into the western
Bering. This system will slowly begin to break down the ridge over
the central waters mid week.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

Upper level high over the mainland will remain steadfast through
Thursday, keeping the upper level low over the gulf. This upper
high will eventually recede to the east briefly to make way for
an upper level trough track into the southwest Mainland on Friday.
By Saturday morning, upper level ridging over the Bering will
begin to push into the southern Mainland. Further west, an upper
low over the Kamchatka Peninsula will shift eastward over the
western Aleutians by Thursday morning, then bank northward over
the far western Bering along the western periphery of the building
Bering sea ridge. What this means for the sensible weather at the
surface is the return of the thermal low forming over the
interior through much of the week, with warming temperatures and
convective afternoon/evening showers. To the west, high pressure
over the Bering may result in widespread foggy conditions through
Thursday, and rainy and windy conditions pushing into the western
Aleutians mid week with the approach of a frontal system entering
the area. The front will continue to slowly push eastward over
central Aleutians through the beginning of the weekend.

Models have come into better agreement overall with the synoptic
scale systems in both the upper and lower levels, especially with
regards to the timing and strength of the Bering Sea ridge.
National guidance was again heavily weighted towards the
operational EC and GFS through days 3 through 5, with a more
ensemble approach to the forecast from days 5 through 8. There
still remains some uncertainty with regards to the upper level
high over the interior and its interaction with the closed low
that is progged to be in the Gulf.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JW
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KH
LONG TERM...MTL