Small Craft Advisory 474, NWS Anchorage, AK

261 
FZAK51 PAFC 192355
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
355 PM AKDT Mon Jun 19 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-201300-
355 PM AKDT Mon Jun 19 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 998 mb low 210 nm southeast of Kodiak City Mon afternoon moves 
eastward before phasing with a secondary low to develop a 1012 mb
low 140 nm southwest of Sitka Tue afternoon. This system remains 
nearly stationary before dissipating by Wed afternoon. A 1023 mb 
low develops 150 nm southeast of Kodiak City Wed afternoon and 
moves to 180 nm southeast of Kodiak City at 1027 mb Thu morning.

$$

PKZ119-201300-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
355 PM AKDT Mon Jun 19 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt. Seas
8 ft.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ120-201300-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
355 PM AKDT Mon Jun 19 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt becoming E 15 kt after midnight. Seas 7
ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming W after midnight. Seas 4 
ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ121-201300-
Resurrection Bay-
355 PM AKDT Mon Jun 19 2017

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ125-201300-
Prince William Sound-
355 PM AKDT Mon Jun 19 2017

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Rain.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-201300-
Port Valdez-
355 PM AKDT Mon Jun 19 2017

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-201300-
Valdez Narrows-
355 PM AKDT Mon Jun 19 2017

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-201300-
Valdez Arm-
355 PM AKDT Mon Jun 19 2017

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable
less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-201300-
Passage Canal-
355 PM AKDT Mon Jun 19 2017

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-201300-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
355 PM AKDT Mon Jun 19 2017

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt diminishing to Variable less than 10 kt 
after midnight. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ131-201300-
Barren Islands East-
355 PM AKDT Mon Jun 19 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt becoming E 15 kt after midnight. Seas 6
ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ132-201300-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
355 PM AKDT Mon Jun 19 2017

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt except N 20 kt N of Dangerous Cape. Seas
6 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to Variable less than 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt except SE wind 10 kt N of Dangerous Cape. 
Seas 4 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ136-201300-
Chiniak Bay-
355 PM AKDT Mon Jun 19 2017

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after
midnight.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-201300-
Marmot Bay-
355 PM AKDT Mon Jun 19 2017

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.

$$

PKZ138-201300-
Shelikof Strait-
355 PM AKDT Mon Jun 19 2017

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt becoming W 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ139-201300-
Cook Inlet Kalgin island to Point Bede-
355 PM AKDT Mon Jun 19 2017

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-201300-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
355 PM AKDT Mon Jun 19 2017

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt becoming S 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft 
building to 5 ft after midnight.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming S 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-201300-
Kachemak Bay-
355 PM AKDT Mon Jun 19 2017

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

627 
FZAK51 PAFC 201155
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
355 AM AKDT Tue Jun 20 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-210115-
355 AM AKDT Tue Jun 20 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1003 mb low centered 340 nm south of Middleton Island will 
weaken to 1017 mb over the eastern Gulf tonight before dissipating
Wed morning. A 1019 mb low will develop 50 nm east of Sitkinak 
tonight and move to 150 nm southeast of Sitkinak at 1027 mb Wed 
night. 

$$

PKZ119-210115-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
355 AM AKDT Tue Jun 20 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT AND WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ120-210115-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
355 AM AKDT Tue Jun 20 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT AND WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ121-210115-
Resurrection Bay-
355 AM AKDT Tue Jun 20 2017

.TODAY...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt becoming S 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ125-210115-
Prince William Sound-
355 AM AKDT Tue Jun 20 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt 
in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-210115-
Port Valdez-
355 AM AKDT Tue Jun 20 2017

.TODAY...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable 
less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...W wind 10 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-210115-
Valdez Narrows-
355 AM AKDT Tue Jun 20 2017

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable 
less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SW wind 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-210115-
Valdez Arm-
355 AM AKDT Tue Jun 20 2017

.TODAY...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable 
less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-210115-
Passage Canal-
355 AM AKDT Tue Jun 20 2017

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Gusts to 20 kt near Whittier 
after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...W wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable 
less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-210115-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
355 AM AKDT Tue Jun 20 2017

.TODAY...SE wind increasing to 20 kt. Seas building to 6 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ131-210115-
Barren Islands East-
355 AM AKDT Tue Jun 20 2017

.TODAY...SE wind to 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT AND THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ132-210115-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
355 AM AKDT Tue Jun 20 2017

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt becoming variable 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT AND THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ136-210115-
Chiniak Bay-
355 AM AKDT Tue Jun 20 2017

.TODAY...NW wind 10 kt becoming E in the afternoon. 
Seas building to 3 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt 
in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.THU...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-210115-
Marmot Bay-
355 AM AKDT Tue Jun 20 2017

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt becoming E in the afternoon. 
Seas building to 3 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ138-210115-
Shelikof Strait-
355 AM AKDT Tue Jun 20 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt...except becoming W 20 kt south 
end of strait in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind to 15 kt...except W 25 kt south end 
of strait. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ139-210115-
Cook Inlet Kalgin island to Point Bede-
355 AM AKDT Tue Jun 20 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 10 kt increasing to 25 kt by late morning. 
Seas 3 ft building to 8 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 6 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight.
.WED...S wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-210115-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
355 AM AKDT Tue Jun 20 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 10 kt increasing to 25 kt by late morning. 
Seas 3 ft building to 8 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt becoming S 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 6 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight.
.WED...S wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-210115-
Kachemak Bay-
355 AM AKDT Tue Jun 20 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt 
by afternoon. Seas building to 3 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable 
less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft subsiding.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 15 kt 
in the afternoon. Seas building to 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
444 PM AKDT Sun Jun 18 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
An upper-level low is moving eastward through the Gulf of Alaska
and strengthening southerly flow aloft for Southcentral Alaska.

The Bering Sea is under the influence of an upper-level low
centered near Cape Lisburne and its northerly flow moving off the
Chukchi Sea.

Southwest Alaska remains under a residual continental flow
pulling into the Gulf of Alaska low. Two other minor circulations
are noted over the Western Bering and North Pacific in the
vicinity of the Aleutians.

The atmosphere has stabilized compared to recent days. Some
showers remain over the Susitna and Matanuska Valleys today.

Most of the region is between shortwaves. The next focus will be
on the Gulf of Alaska shortwave moving up the Southeast coastline
today.

At the surface, High pressure is building into the Northern Gulf
Coast from 1021mb. A cold front stretches from Anaktuvuk Pass to
just south of Nome to the Gulf of Anadyr.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are decent agreement through midday Monday when strength
and location of the Gulf low and Kenai Peninsula / Prince William
Sound high centers begin to lose focus.

For Southcentral, a NAM/GFS blend was preferred. A GFS/ECMWF blend
was used for Southwest and the Aleutians.

The forecast challenge in the short term will be focused on timing
the incoming easterly wave. The NAM is faster and stronger with
the initial vort max and again with a second wave midday Tuesday.
GFS and ECMWF are considerably less excitable. This will have an
impact on precipitation amounts during the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions will continue until 12z Tuesday at which
point ceilings will decrease with incoming precipitation. Winds
will also increase near the same point.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

A generally quiet afternoon and overnight tonight is expected,
with a slight chance of an isolated storm along the Talkeetnas
later this afternoon. Ridging aloft and a lack of disturbances is
why a quiet afternoon and overnight is expected, though extra lift
in the Talkeetnas may be enough for a storm or two.

A North Pacific low will move into the Gulf Monday afternoon.
Ahead of the low, an easterly wave tracking across the Copper
Basin combined with daytime heating, and added moisture from the
wave will result in a better chance of thunderstorms, especially
on the Susitna Valley side of the Talkeetnas on Monday afternoon.
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible once again along the
Alaska Range. Slightly above normal temperatures are expected on
Monday.

The area of rain associated with the low will move into the Copper
River Basin Monday night, and spread westward across much of the
rest of Southcentral by Tuesday. A steady soaking rain is expected
from the wave, but diminishing instability associated with it
will significantly reduce the thunderstorm threat behind the
wave. Overcast skies and rains will make Tuesday to be by far the
coolest day this week.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
A relatively quiet weather pattern ensues through the beginning of
the week as the Southwest remains wedged between two upper level
low pressure systems, with one located over the Bering Strait and
the other in the southern gulf. At the surface, a thermal trough
along the interior extends an axis across the Kuskokwim Valley
into Tuesday. This set up, along with a shortwave moving from the
base of the trough over the Strait, brings scattered showers
through the beginning of the week along with isolated
thunderstorms for the Kuskokwim Valley and western Alaska Range on
tonight and Monday. On Tuesday, showers will taper off from west
to east. The one exception to this will be along the western
Alaska and Aleutian Ranges where wrap around moisture streams in
from the gulf low, which will initiate scattered showers during
peak heating Tuesday and Wednesday. Kept thunderstorm mention out
of the forecast at this time as subsidence drying along a building
ridge over the southern mainland looks like it may be limiting
factor.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

A benign weather pattern is expected through the beginning of the
week across much of the Bering as ridging builds across the
central Bering through Tuesday, shifting east into Wednesday. Low
pressure currently south of the Alaska Peninsula, will bring a
few wrap around showers as far west as the eastern Aleutians
tonight, then taper off on Monday. One other feature to the west
brings showers to the western Aleutians/Bering tonight as a weak
disturbance aloft moves in from the North Pacific. The next
pattern shift begins on Tuesday with a developing low off of
Kamchatka which is expected to move a front into the western
Bering. This system will slowly begin to break down the ridge over
the central waters mid week.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

Upper level high over the mainland will remain steadfast through
Thursday, keeping the upper level low over the gulf. This upper
high will eventually recede to the east briefly to make way for
an upper level trough track into the southwest Mainland on Friday.
By Saturday morning, upper level ridging over the Bering will
begin to push into the southern Mainland. Further west, an upper
low over the Kamchatka Peninsula will shift eastward over the
western Aleutians by Thursday morning, then bank northward over
the far western Bering along the western periphery of the building
Bering sea ridge. What this means for the sensible weather at the
surface is the return of the thermal low forming over the
interior through much of the week, with warming temperatures and
convective afternoon/evening showers. To the west, high pressure
over the Bering may result in widespread foggy conditions through
Thursday, and rainy and windy conditions pushing into the western
Aleutians mid week with the approach of a frontal system entering
the area. The front will continue to slowly push eastward over
central Aleutians through the beginning of the weekend.

Models have come into better agreement overall with the synoptic
scale systems in both the upper and lower levels, especially with
regards to the timing and strength of the Bering Sea ridge.
National guidance was again heavily weighted towards the
operational EC and GFS through days 3 through 5, with a more
ensemble approach to the forecast from days 5 through 8. There
still remains some uncertainty with regards to the upper level
high over the interior and its interaction with the closed low
that is progged to be in the Gulf.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JW
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KH
LONG TERM...MTL