Small Craft Advisory 452, NWS Anchorage, AK

538 
FZAK51 PAFC 081139
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
339 AM AKDT Thu Jun 8 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-090045-
339 AM AKDT Thu Jun 8 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

High pressure lingers over the North Gulf Coast through Thu
afternoon. A 998 mb low will develop near Yakutat this evening,
then move west and dissipate near Prince William Sound Fri 
morning. Troughs push across the Western Gulf through Fri 
afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-090045-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
339 AM AKDT Thu Jun 8 2017

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ120-090045-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
339 AM AKDT Thu Jun 8 2017

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ121-090045-
Resurrection Bay-
339 AM AKDT Thu Jun 8 2017

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than 10 
kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 10 kt after 
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-090045-
Prince William Sound-
339 AM AKDT Thu Jun 8 2017

.TODAY...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-090045-
Port Valdez-
339 AM AKDT Thu Jun 8 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-090045-
Valdez Narrows-
339 AM AKDT Thu Jun 8 2017

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 
ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt becoming NE after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-090045-
Valdez Arm-
339 AM AKDT Thu Jun 8 2017

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable less than 10
kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-090045-
Passage Canal-
339 AM AKDT Thu Jun 8 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...W wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-090045-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
339 AM AKDT Thu Jun 8 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ131-090045-
Barren Islands East-
339 AM AKDT Thu Jun 8 2017

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ132-090045-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
339 AM AKDT Thu Jun 8 2017

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ136-090045-
Chiniak Bay-
339 AM AKDT Thu Jun 8 2017

.TODAY...NW wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SE 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 1 ft building to 3 ft in the afternoon.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-090045-
Marmot Bay-
339 AM AKDT Thu Jun 8 2017

.TODAY...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SE 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-090045-
Shelikof Strait-
339 AM AKDT Thu Jun 8 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ139-090045-
Cook Inlet Kalgin island to Point Bede-
339 AM AKDT Thu Jun 8 2017

.TODAY...variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ140-090045-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
339 AM AKDT Thu Jun 8 2017

.TODAY...S wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ141-090045-
Kachemak Bay-
339 AM AKDT Thu Jun 8 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
405 AM AKDT Wed Jun 7 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The eastern Gulf has several shortwaves rotating around the
closed upper level low located south of the Gulf this morning.
This upper level feature is reflected at the surface with a 994 mb
low pressure system located just south of Kodiak Island. The
satellite imagery is showing a large swath of moisture streaming
through the northern Gulf coastal communities, and spreading
across the Alaska Range into the Southwest Alaska region. The
Scatterometer wind imagery was showing gale force northeasterly
winds in the northern Gulf as the frontal boundary tracks through
the region this morning.

Meanwhile, the satellite imagery is showing the comma cloud that
is associated with the 994 mb surface low just west of Shemya.
The associated front is over the western Bering extending through
the Central Aleutians into the North Pacific Ocean. This system is
bringing westerly gusty wind through the Western Aleutians, and the
Scatterometer wind imagery is reflecting the same winds. The closed
upper level high has moved farther north into the lower Chukchi Sea
with the associated surface ridge extending through the northern
Bering Sea through eastern Beaufort Sea. The Southwest Alaska region
has the thermal trough setting up again over the Lower Kuskokwim
Valley extending across the Kuskokwim Mountains into the Kuskokwim
Delta today. This coupled with diurnal heating, and shortwave will
provide convective unstable conditions for the aforementioned region
this afternoon through the early evening hour time-frame.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The models are in better agreement with the low moving just south
of Kodiak Island this morning before moving southward, and phasing
in with a North Pacific Low out of our AOR. The models are
struggling with a low pressure system moving towards the Central
Aleutians by Thursday. The ECMWF is faster with this system, while
the GFS/NAM have a slower solution as this system gets kicked out
of the base of the longwave trough over the North Pacific Ocean.
The NAM was the preferred model of choice, and the forecast
confidence remains average through the short-term time-frame.

&&

.PANC...
The Anchorage Bowl remains under the influence of VFR conditions
with majority of the showers along the Chugach and Kenai Mountains.
The winds will be slightly gusty coming off the Turnagain Arm with
a more southerly flow before weakening by the late afternoon
time-frame.

&&

 .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The low centered south of Kodiak Island will move south of the
area today. Southeasterly flow aloft will be over Southcentral
Alaska through Thursday evening, before becoming more southerly
Friday morning as a ridge builds in over eastern Alaska. This
pattern will bring considerable showers to the coastal areas and
coastal mountains, with inland areas just seeing some isolated
showers. High temperatures will warm for inland areas over the
next couple of days with the increasing heights associated with
the building ridge. Highs could approach 80 degrees in the Copper
River basin on Thursday, with lower to mid 70s in the Matanuska
and Susitna valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A rather impressive cyclone for this time of year is wrapping up
and moving west from Kodiak Island this morning. This is
tightening the pressure gradient as the surface low moves just
south of Kodiak Island. The strongest winds are across the Bristol
Bay region where there is steady light rain along the southern
Alaska Peninsula. The front crossing the Alaska Range this
morning will make westward progress and stall along the Kuskokwim
Delta. Vertical mass ascent along the leading edge of a shortwave
trough axis, possibly enhanced by a lee trough axis west of the
Kilbuck Mountains, will help spark off isolated thunderstorms and
enhanced shower activity across the Kuskokwim Delta this afternoon
and early evening.

After this evening, broad easterly flow aloft will remain dominant
through Thursday, keeping a similar pattern in place with isolated
to scattered rain showers and periods of clouds. A weak thermal
trough axis will form over the Lower Kuskokwim Valley Thursday
evening with enough instability and favorable northwest flow over
the Kuskokwim Mountains and Kilbuck Mountains for some isolated
thunderstorm threats. Otherwise, another shortwave trough will
eventually lift north on Thursday evening, bringing more
widespread rain and rain shower threats to Southwest. However, at
this juncture, there is very low certainty on the track of that
wave or the overall precipitation distribution, so for now, a more
broad area of chance POPS will be used by Thursday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
There has been no change in the Bering Sea pattern this morning
as a 30 knot low remains over the far Western Aleutians with broad
high pressure over the central Bering Sea. A stronger gale force
low has impinged on the far Eastern Aleutians this morning, but
that will quickly weaken and move back into the North Pacific by
tonight. Bering sea fog and stratus should continue to establish
itself as the weak winds and high pressure remains dominant.

Late Thursday and Thursday night a North Pacific low will spread
rain towards the Central and Eastern Aleutians as the low moves
toward the Alaska Peninsula.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The weather pattern is shifting some to a typical early Alaska
summer pattern for the second half of the week with weak ridging
along the northern Gulf of Alaska coast, and a thermal low in the
interior. This will bring some periods of rain along the Gulf
coast with diurnal showers inland. Also expect gusty afternoon and
evening winds in the typical locations (Turnagain Arm, along the
Copper River and the other usual suspects). A low in the eastern
Bering Sea will also help keep a trough over most of southwest
Alaska with diurnal showers and possibly a thunderstorm over
inland areas.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale Warning...131 138.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JA
LONG TERM...EZ