Small Craft Advisory 451, NWS Anchorage, AK

065 
FZAK52 PAFC 072357
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
357 PM AKDT Wed Jun 7 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-081245-
357 PM AKDT Wed Jun 7 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

Bogoslof Volcano at 54N 168W remains active.

A 996 mb low at 54N 170E moves to 51N 179E at 1008 mb and 
dissipates Fri afternoon. The associated front remains south of 
the Aleutians. North Pacific high pressure crosses the Central 
Aleutians into the northern Bering by Fri morning. A 989 mb North
Pacific low moves to 53N 163W by Fri afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-081245-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
357 PM AKDT Wed Jun 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt becoming NW 15 kt after midnight. Seas
9 ft subsiding to 6 ft towards morning.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ155-081245-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
357 PM AKDT Wed Jun 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt becoming NW 10 kt after midnight. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ160-081245-
Bristol Bay-
357 PM AKDT Wed Jun 7 2017

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt in the evening becoming NW. Seas 3 ft. 
Patchy fog.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ165-081245-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
357 PM AKDT Wed Jun 7 2017

.TONIGHT...Nw wind 15 kt becoming variable 10 kt towards morning. 
Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ170-081245-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
357 PM AKDT Wed Jun 7 2017

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ171-081245-
Unalaska Bay-
357 PM AKDT Wed Jun 7 2017

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-081245-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
357 PM AKDT Wed Jun 7 2017

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt becoming 10 kt after midnight. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ173-081245-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
357 PM AKDT Wed Jun 7 2017

.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ174-081245-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
357 PM AKDT Wed Jun 7 2017

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ175-081245-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
357 PM AKDT Wed Jun 7 2017

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ176-081245-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
357 PM AKDT Wed Jun 7 2017

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ177-081245-
Adak to Kiska-
357 PM AKDT Wed Jun 7 2017

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ178-081245-
Kiska to Attu-
357 PM AKDT Wed Jun 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ179-081245-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
357 PM AKDT Wed Jun 7 2017

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Areas of fog.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Areas of fog.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ180-081245-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
357 PM AKDT Wed Jun 7 2017

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ181-081245-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
357 PM AKDT Wed Jun 7 2017

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ185-081245-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
357 PM AKDT Wed Jun 7 2017

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
502 PM AKDT Tue Jun 6 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The overall weather pattern is not changing rapidly today, and
resembles an "Omega block" pattern that features a closed high in
the northern Bering Sea flanked by nearly-stationary low pressure
systems in the western Bering and also in the southern Gulf. This
sets most of the souther mainland into moist east/southeast flow
with most precipitation confined to the coastal mountains, with
more showery conditions inland. The Gulf low pressure system is in
the process of re-organizing as a new surface low is moving
quickly into the northern Gulf to become the main circulation
center. This low is forming under a 100 kt jet streak coupled with
an upper level shortwave rotating around the east side of the
overall Gulf circulation. Satellite data and ship observations
from midday Tuesday confirm that high-end Gale-force winds are
already occurring with this fast-moving low, and these conditions
are expected to move toward the northern Gulf coast rapidly this
evening along with another round of steady rain.

Meanwhile, the southwest mainland is getting a one-day reprieve
from the strong thunderstorms that affected the area yesterday.
This break is compliments of a cooler and more stable airmass
moving in from the east. Way out west, the low pressure system
near Attu/western Aleutians features a fairly weak pressure
gradient overall, with winds pretty tame around the area and
seasonal fog/stratus the most significant condition over the
western Bering Sea.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

With a slow-moving longwave weather pattern, the models are not-
surprisingly in good overall agreement. The high-resolution
NAMNest was used on the east domain to capture interactions of
strong winds with the complex terrain. There is a bit more model
discrepancy on the western/Aleutian forecast domain, specifically
as relates to the movement of a low along and south of the
Aleutian Islands for the latter half of this week. The Canadian
GEM and ECMWF models are both notably faster/further east than the
American models at this point. For consistency sake, the forecast
today will stick with the slower American solution at this point,
pending better agreement in the global models. The good news is
that all solutions show this low staying south of the chain, with
fairly minimal impacts to the population centers in the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

A rather un-seasonably strong low pressure system will quickly
push across the northern gulf coast late this afternoon through
early Wednesday morning. This low will help produce max gale force
winds (45 kts) south of Prince William Sound but with the speed
that the low is currently moving, the low should be near Kodiak
Island close to sunrise on Wednesday. This will allow winds to
quickly diminish by Wednesday morning across the northern gulf
coast. Some gusty winds up to 40 kts may poke into Prince William
Sound just prior to midnight tonight but will quickly diminish as
mentioned earlier. Accompanying the period of stronger winds will
be a rather significant slug of moisture that will bring periods
of moderate to heavy rainfall to the gulf coast through Wednesday
morning with additional upslope rainfall continuing into Thursday.
Inland locations look to remain on the dry side as typical with
synoptic southeasterly wind events but there is still a very
slight chance for a few showers. Temperatures look to rebound
Wednesday through the end of the week with temperatures once again
returning to above normal values. Convection looks pretty
unlikely through the remainder of the week with cloud cover
continuing to limit instability but a few diurnal rain showers
remain possible, especially over the mountainous terrain of the
Copper River Basin and the Susitna Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

A low pressure system centered South of Kodiak Island will
continue to provide Easterly flow aloft bringing increased cloud
cover and moisture to SW AK. Expect scattered showers this
afternoon and evening over higher terrain but thunderstorm
activity will be kept to a minimum as abundant cloud cover and
cooler conditions are limiting the amount of instability in the
atmosphere today. A short wave wrapping West along the top of the
low will bring steady rain to the East side of the AKPEN tonight
and tomorrow morning but strong 700 mb NE winds will cause
downsloping and drying on the West side of the peninsula, keeping
locations like King Salmon mostly dry.

For tomorrow, scattered clouds and mostly dry conditions can be
expected across most of SW AK as the low in the Gulf shifts SW.
Winds could be a bit gusty during the day as NE flow sets up over
the interior leading to possible issues for wildfire crews in the
region. Temperatures are expected to be above average with highs
reaching into the mid to upper 70's in spots. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop later in the afternoon but
should be limited to the Western Kuskokwim Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

A large area of high pressure will continue to build over the
Bering Sea and will slowly drift North over the next couple of
days. A low pressure system will move in over the Western
Aleutians by Wednesday bringing near gale force southerly winds.
By Thursday, high pressure builds back in over the Bering Sea
bringing fairly benign weather to the area though fog and low
stratus is expected to form and become more widespread over the
week.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

The weather pattern is shifting some to a typical early Alaska
Summer pattern for the second half of the week with weak ridging
along the north Gulf of Alaska coast and a thermal low in the
interior. This will bring some periods of rain along the Gulf
coast with diurnal showers inland. Also expect gusty afternoon and
evening winds in the typical locations (Turnagain Arm, along the
Copper River and the other usual suspects).
A low in the eastern Bering Sea will also help keep a trough over
most of southwest Alaska with diurnal showers and possibly a
thunderstorm over inland areas.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gales 119 120 130 131 132 138.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...AD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KWV
LONG TERM...EZ