Small Craft Advisory 440, NWS Anchorage, AK

079 
FZAK51 PAFC 040212 CCA
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
612 PM AKDT Sat Jun 3 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-041300-
612 PM AKDT Sat Jun 3 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
High pressure lingers over the north Gulf Coast and Southeastern 
Alaska through Sun afternoon. A front tracks into the northern 
Gulf Mon morning. A second front will reach the north Gulf Coast 
Monday evening.

$$

PKZ119-041300-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
612 PM AKDT Sat Jun 3 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft building to 7 ft after midnight.
.MON...E wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ120-041300-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
612 PM AKDT Sat Jun 3 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 15 kt becoming NE 25 kt after midnight. 
Seas 5 ft.
.MON...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ121-041300-
Resurrection Bay-
612 PM AKDT Sat Jun 3 2017

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less 
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming N after midnight. 
Seas 2 ft.
.MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-041300-
Prince William Sound-
612 PM AKDT Sat Jun 3 2017

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-041300-
Port Valdez-
612 PM AKDT Sat Jun 3 2017

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable
less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt becoming W 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable
less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-041300-
Valdez Narrows-
612 PM AKDT Sat Jun 3 2017

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 15 kt becoming NE wind 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 15 kt becoming N 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-041300-
Valdez Arm-
612 PM AKDT Sat Jun 3 2017

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming NE after midnight. 
Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-041300-
Passage Canal-
612 PM AKDT Sat Jun 3 2017

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-041300-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
612 PM AKDT Sat Jun 3 2017

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ131-041300-
Barren Islands East-
612 PM AKDT Sat Jun 3 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ132-041300-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
612 PM AKDT Sat Jun 3 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ136-041300-
Chiniak Bay-
612 PM AKDT Sat Jun 3 2017

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft building to 5 ft after
midnight.
.MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-041300-
Marmot Bay-
612 PM AKDT Sat Jun 3 2017

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming E 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-041300-
Shelikof Strait-
612 PM AKDT Sat Jun 3 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ139-041300-
Cook Inlet Kalgin island to Point Bede-
612 PM AKDT Sat Jun 3 2017

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ140-041300-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
612 PM AKDT Sat Jun 3 2017

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming S 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ141-041300-
Kachemak Bay-
612 PM AKDT Sat Jun 3 2017

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt in the evening becoming SE 10 kt. 
Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

407 
FZAK51 PAFC 041138
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
338 AM AKDT Sun Jun 4 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-050030-
338 AM AKDT Sun Jun 4 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
High pressure lingers over the northern Gulf Coast through this 
afternoon. A front tracks into the southern Gulf Mon morning...then 
into the northern Gulf Coast by Mon evening. The associated 990 mb 
low tracks from 400 nm southeast of Kodiak City Monday morning to 
180 nm south of Kodiak City at 987 mb by Tuesday morning.

$$

PKZ119-050030-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
338 AM AKDT Sun Jun 4 2017

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
6 ft.
.MON...E wind 25 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ120-050030-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
338 AM AKDT Sun Jun 4 2017

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt becoming NE 25 kt after midnight. Seas 5
ft.
.MON...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ121-050030-
Resurrection Bay-
338 AM AKDT Sun Jun 4 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Higher winds and
seas s of Caines Head.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-050030-
Prince William Sound-
338 AM AKDT Sun Jun 4 2017

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt becoming N 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-050030-
Port Valdez-
338 AM AKDT Sun Jun 4 2017

.TODAY...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED through thu...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-050030-
Valdez Narrows-
338 AM AKDT Sun Jun 4 2017

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming NE 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 
ft. Rain.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-050030-
Valdez Arm-
338 AM AKDT Sun Jun 4 2017

.TODAY...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT through thu...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-050030-
Passage Canal-
338 AM AKDT Sun Jun 4 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT through wed...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-050030-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
338 AM AKDT Sun Jun 4 2017

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ131-050030-
Barren Islands East-
338 AM AKDT Sun Jun 4 2017

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ132-050030-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
338 AM AKDT Sun Jun 4 2017

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ136-050030-
Chiniak Bay-
338 AM AKDT Sun Jun 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-050030-
Marmot Bay-
338 AM AKDT Sun Jun 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft building to 11 ft in the
afternoon. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-050030-
Shelikof Strait-
338 AM AKDT Sun Jun 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT through tue...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ139-050030-
Cook Inlet Kalgin island to Point Bede-
338 AM AKDT Sun Jun 4 2017

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ140-050030-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
338 AM AKDT Sun Jun 4 2017

.TODAY...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming S 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT through tue...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ141-050030-
Kachemak Bay-
338 AM AKDT Sun Jun 4 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT through wed...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
458 AM AKDT Sat Jun 3 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The upper level pattern remains largely unchanged this morning,
with a ridge over mainland Alaska and a broad closed low over the
northeast Pacific constituting a Rex block which is keeping
generally dry offshore flow in place across Southcentral.
Meanwhile, modest onshore flow has allowed fog to spread into
coastal portions of Bristol Bay. The thermal trough over the
southern mainland has provided the focus for a few showers to
linger into the overnight hours over mainly higher terrain from
the Kuskokwim Valley eastward into the Copper River Basin. An
upper trough is also moving east across the Bering Sea, with an
attendant surface low tracking south of the chain spreading rain
into the Eastern Aleutians as well as the Pribilofs and parts of
the Alaska Peninsula.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models continue to show good short term agreement as the Bering
Sea trough slides eastward this weekend and eventually replaces
the current gulf low while high pressure remains over the
mainland. This will essentially reinforce the Rex block and keep
the same generally warm and dry pattern in place over the
region through early next week. Mainly utilized Hi-Res NAM
guidance to capture local features such as sea breezes in the
morning forecast pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period.
Southerly winds will once again develop at the terminal by mid to
late afternoon and last through the evening hours in response to a
favorable pressure gradient and daytime heating over the southern
Susitna Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Upper waves moving west across the Southcentral Mainland combined
with an active thermal trough will bring increased chances of
showers. Stability indices become favorable for isolated wet
thunderstorms along the Alaska Range, northern and western Copper
River Basin, Talkeetna Mountains, and Kenai Mountains this
afternoon and evening. The more vigorous of the upper waves will
likely bring rain to the southeastern Copper River Basin today
which should spread slowly west tonight. Gusty southeast winds are
expected across Turnagain Arm and west Anchorage this afternoon
through late tonight.

On Sunday, thunderstorm potential will be more confined to the
Alaska Range and Talkeetna Mountains with chances of showers and/or
rain elsewhere. Gusty south winds are expected to develop along
the Copper River in the afternoon and persist through the evening
hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Another very warm, summer-like day is in store for Southwest
Alaska today. Outside of some morning fog along the coast which
should quickly dissipate with daytime heating, many areas will
start out with a good amount of sunshine, though lingering cloud
cover persists over much of the lower Kuskokwim Valley. By early
afternoon, the next round of cumulus development will be underway.
With the broad atmosphere having moistened a bit, that should lead
to mostly cloudy skies in most areas, with some of the cumulus
possibly generating some shower activity. Thunderstorm potential
today looks poor once again, as there still remains very little to
force convection. The best chance for storms today will be in the
eastern Bristol Bay area along the Alaska Range.

Sunday's thunderstorm chances look a bit better, as moisture
continues to be added to the mid-levels of the atmosphere. In
addition, an easterly wave will move into the area from
Southcentral, which when added to the extra moisture and
increasing instability, thunderstorm coverage should be greater on
Sunday, particularly in the western Alaska Range and further
north through the Middle Kuskokwim Valley. Extra cloud cover
should help creep relative humidity values higher on Sunday along
with temperatures that should be cool enough to avoid the 80
degree mark in all areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

A low tracking south of the Aleutians today will be the primary
catalyst for soaking rains out ahead of it in the eastern
Aleutians. The rain may be heavy at times with the stronger
rain bands moving through. The low will slow its eastward
movement to a crawl Saturday night, so the rain will continue in
the eastern Aleutians and southern Alaska Peninsula through much
of the day on Sunday, though intensities will diminish with time.
Fog and low ceilings will be a problem in the eastern Bering
through at least Sunday. The next front will move into the far
western Aleutians Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.SOUTHWEST ALASKA FIRE WEATHER...

Warm temperatures and low relative humidity values will persist
again today in interior portions of the area, though some
additional cloud cover may prevent some of the same areas from
getting quite as warm as yesterday. Winds in most places will
remain light and variable, so red flag conditions are not
expected. However, thunderstorms will become an increasing threat
over the next couple afternoons.

This afternoon, thunderstorms will be isolated once again along
the Alaska Range, with the best chances of storms east of Bristol
Bay. A lack of any upper level fronts or waves once again this
afternoon should preclude any organization to the storms, which
will likely be of the pop-up variety. Further, additional cloud
cover this afternoon should temper the instability. However, as we
move into Sunday afternoon, the threat will push northward into
the Lower Kuskokwim Valley, where a mid-level wave adding moisture
to the atmosphere will enhance the instability, particularly
along the Alaska Range, so thunderstorm coverage will be greater
than isolated. Also, a northeasterly steering flow Sunday
afternoon should allow the storms to move enough to allow for any
storms to take advantage of the untapped air mass ahead of them as
they move towards the southwest.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

Beginning the extended forecast period Sunday evening, there will
be a blocking high over the nortwest portion of Alaska with an
elongated upper low over the North Pacific. This system will be in
the process of merging with a migratory closed low west of the
Alaska Panhandle. This pattern will feature a broad area of
easterly winds/flow aloft over all of southern Alaska. With a weak
thermal low over the interior, this will favor the warmest
temperatures inland (slightly above normal) with more mild
temperatures along the coast. Most days will be dry, but there
will be threats for afternoon and evening convection, aided by
easterly shortwave troughs, to enhance precipitation locally.
The best instability axis will be along the Alaska Range and
Talkeetna Mountains where isolated thunderstorms will be a threat.

This general pattern will continue most of Monday until the
aforementioned North Pacific low moves into the Gulf of Alaska,
and the associated front moves toward the coast. This pattern will
dominate Tuesday through Thursday with rain along the coast and
showers inland, focused on the mountains. Overall, this pattern
will keep near if not slightly above normal temps inland, but with
additional cloud cover.

A potential warm-up for late week is possible as the Gulf low
moves southeast and weak ridging builds inland. However,
uncertainty exists with the upper level height field pattern as
the GFS is the most bullish building in higher heights aloft
(warmer temps at the surface, too). However, since climatology
tends toward higher heights, the WPC forecast favored this so a
slight warming trend was favored in the WPC blend for the extended
range.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale 155.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...RMC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JW
LONG TERM...JA