Small Craft Advisory 44, NWS Anchorage, AK

937 
FZAK51 PAFC 140011
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
311 PM AKST FRI JAN 13 2017

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-141330-
311 PM AKST FRI JAN 13 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 970 MB LOW 65 NM EAST OF KODIAK CITY MOVES TO 15 NM SOUTHEAST 
OF WHITTIER AT 978 MB BY SAT MIDDAY. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT SWEEPS
OVER THE NORTH GULF COAST SAT MORNING AND THE TRAILING FRONT
CROSSES THE GULF OF ALASKA BY SUN MORNING. A 965 MB LOW MOVES 
TO 360 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK BY SUN AFTERNOON.


$$

PKZ119-141330-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
311 PM AKST FRI JAN 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ120-141330-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
311 PM AKST FRI JAN 13 2017

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ121-141330-
RESURRECTION BAY-
311 PM AKST FRI JAN 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT TOWARD MORNING. 
SEAS 5 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N WIND 10 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ125-141330-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
311 PM AKST FRI JAN 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-141330-
PORT VALDEZ-
311 PM AKST FRI JAN 13 2017

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-141330-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
311 PM AKST FRI JAN 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT. SNOW WITH RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-141330-
VALDEZ ARM-
311 PM AKST FRI JAN 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-141330-
PASSAGE CANAL-
311 PM AKST FRI JAN 13 2017

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE WIND 10 KT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ130-141330-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
311 PM AKST FRI JAN 13 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ131-141330-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
311 PM AKST FRI JAN 13 2017

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ132-141330-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
311 PM AKST FRI JAN 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ136-141330-
CHINIAK BAY-
311 PM AKST FRI JAN 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ137-141330-
MARMOT BAY-
311 PM AKST FRI JAN 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-141330-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
311 PM AKST FRI JAN 13 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING SATURDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ139-141330-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
311 PM AKST FRI JAN 13 2017

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ140-141330-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
311 PM AKST FRI JAN 13 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING SATURDAY...
...BRISK WIND ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT.
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 10 KT.

$$

PKZ141-141330-
KACHEMAK BAY-
311 PM AKST FRI JAN 13 2017

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING W 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT TOWARD MORNING. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...W WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 13 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

261 
FZAK51 PAFC 141246
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
346 AM AKST SAT JAN 14 2017

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-150200-
346 AM AKST SAT JAN 14 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 975 MB LOW OVER WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WILL MOVE INLAND
THIS MORNING. A 965 MB LOW 430 NM SOUTH OF SITKINAK SUN MORNING
WILL MOVE TO NEAR MIDDLETON ISLAND AT 959 MB BY EARLY MON MORNING.
AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL ENTER THE SOUTHERN GULF SUN MORNING AND
REACH THE NORTH GULF COAST SUN EVENING.

$$

PKZ119-150200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
346 AM AKST SAT JAN 14 2017

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 16 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14
FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ120-150200-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
346 AM AKST SAT JAN 14 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 10 FT. SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ121-150200-
RESURRECTION BAY-
346 AM AKST SAT JAN 14 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO N 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ125-150200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
346 AM AKST SAT JAN 14 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING 4 FT. SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-150200-
PORT VALDEZ-
346 AM AKST SAT JAN 14 2017

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ127-150200-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
346 AM AKST SAT JAN 14 2017

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-150200-
VALDEZ ARM-
346 AM AKST SAT JAN 14 2017

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ129-150200-
PASSAGE CANAL-
346 AM AKST SAT JAN 14 2017

.TODAY...W WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ130-150200-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
346 AM AKST SAT JAN 14 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS BUILDING
TO 14 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5
FT BUILDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ131-150200-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
346 AM AKST SAT JAN 14 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.MON...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ132-150200-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
346 AM AKST SAT JAN 14 2017

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING N 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11
FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ136-150200-
CHINIAK BAY-
346 AM AKST SAT JAN 14 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6
FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ137-150200-
MARMOT BAY-
346 AM AKST SAT JAN 14 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT
BUILDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-150200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
346 AM AKST SAT JAN 14 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT
BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ139-150200-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
346 AM AKST SAT JAN 14 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3
FT
BUILDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ140-150200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
346 AM AKST SAT JAN 14 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...
...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 10 KT.

$$

PKZ141-150200-
KACHEMAK BAY-
346 AM AKST SAT JAN 14 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT DURING THE MORNING. SEAS BUILDING
TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
414 PM AKST Thu Jan 12 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
There is a large upper low over northern Alaska. Fairly strong
westerly flow aloft continues over southern Alaska to the south
of this low. There is an upper level ridge over the central Bering
sea with a very thin eastward extension into the Gulf of Alaska.
There is a large upper trough south of the Aleutians. This has a
band of moisture that stretches from just south of the Western
Aleutians eastward into the southern Gulf. Weak offshore flow
exists at the surface over the southern mainland.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The numerical models are in decent agreement for the short term
portion of the forecast (through Saturday afternoon). There are
some differences in where the models put the surface low Friday
and Friday night as it moves north-northeast into the Prince
William Sound area (by Saturday morning). Small differences in
the placement of this low can create considerable differences in
the precipitation field. Thus the forecast confidence is a bit
below normal today.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Fog and low stratus continue. IFR conditions are likely
through tonight. The atmosphere should begin to mix more Friday
morning, and the conditions should improve. Snow will move into
the area Friday afternoon resulting in MVFR/IFR conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The main challenge for the end of the week is with the North
Pacific storm system which is projected to push a warm front
across the Gulf tonight then to the northern Gulf coast on
Friday. This system is expected to bring widespread rain across
the Gulf and snow along the coast overnight, with snow spreading
slowly inland on Friday as an upper wave continues to pull the
front north. The current forecast was updated to increase
precipitation chances across all of Southcentral for this next
event as models continue to generally agree with the movement
of the surface low moving into western Prince William Sound.

For tonight, the front pushes along the western gulf waters with
the boundary stretching north across Kodiak Island, then north
across the eastern Kenai and northeast Gulf. Meanwhile, abundant
mid-level moisture streams north across the interior as the flow
becomes stronger and out of the southeast due to the subtropical
low, south of the Alaska Peninsula, being absorbed by the closed
low diving in along the west coast. As the front moves inland on
Friday, warmer air overruns the cold dome in place, especially
across the coastal areas of Prince William Sound which will result
in the highest snow accumulations. The air mass is expected to
warm above freezing for the northeast Gulf changing snow over
to rain later on Friday. Inland locations will remain as snow
through this event as a colder air mass pushes in from the
southwest on Friday. The challenge with the cold front pushing
into Southcentral on Friday night is that a narrow deformation
zone could set up bringing locally higher amounts than currently
expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A stout arctic trough will move into the region through Saturday,
bringing increasing northeast offshore flow and colder temperatures.
Some low stratus will hang around the Lower Kuskokwim Valley
before being scoured out tonight. Expect dry weather with the
exception of areas along/near the Alaska and Aleutian Ranges
where snow is possible Friday and Friday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
An impressive shot of arctic air will move over the Bering Sea
through Saturday, bringing increasing north to northeast winds
and widespread rain and snow showers. Eventually all snow showers
will encompass most of the Bering with threats for freezing spray
moving as far south as Unalaska by Friday night. Expect heavy
freezing spray along and near the southwest coast.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
Confidence is beginning to improve beginning Sunday that most of
the cold air moving into the Mainland will generally remain west
of the Alaska Range due to much better agreement in the placement
of the arctic trough. As a result temperatures over the Southwest
Mainland late this weekend are expected to fall below, but not
well below normal as was possible only a few days ago. From
Southcentral eastward, there is now increasing agreement of a
much warmer and active pattern due to the further west placement
of the upper level trough. In particular, there is much better
agreement in recent runs of the GFS and EC in a rapidly moving
and much deeper low into the Gulf Sun-Mon. It is beginning to
look more likely that this system will bringing widespread snow
and a chance for gusty winds to the Gulf Coast and Southcentral
into early next week, however confidence is low exact impact of
it. It is also important to note that this system will likely
bring temperatures east of the Alaska Range above normal by
Monday, a large change in the forecast over the last few days.

By the middle of next the models are good agreement that the arctic
trough will begin to spread over much of the Mainland. This setup
would bring the best potential for widespread cold throughout the
area, however with the large amount of recent variability in the
long term models there is fairly low confidence in any particular
solution.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Dense Fog Advisory 101 121.
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 160 180 181 185.
 		 Gale Warning 119 130 139 155 165 170 172 173 174
					  175 179 180 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...KH
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JA
LONG TERM...DEK