Small Craft Advisory 43, NWS Anchorage, AK

199 
FZAK52 PAFC 140011
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
311 PM AKST FRI JAN 13 2017

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-141315-
311 PM AKST FRI JAN 13 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
BOGOSLOF VOLCANO 53 NM WEST OF DUTCH HARBOR REMAINS ACTIVE. 
SIBERIAN HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES SPREADING OVER THE BERING SEA
AND RIDGES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON. 
A FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-141315-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
311 PM AKST FRI JAN 13 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 14 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY NEAR THE COAST.
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN 
THE MORNING. SEAS 15 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY NEAR THE COAST.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. S OF
CHIRIKOF ISLAND...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ155-141315-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
311 PM AKST FRI JAN 13 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. SEAS 13 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY NEAR
THE COAST.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ160-141315-
BRISTOL BAY-
311 PM AKST FRI JAN 13 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 
IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ165-141315-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
311 PM AKST FRI JAN 13 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 10 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ170-141315-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
311 PM AKST FRI JAN 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ171-141315-
UNALASKA BAY-
311 PM AKST FRI JAN 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
GUSTS TO 35 KT THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SEAS 10 FT SUBSIDING TO 
5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. FREEZING SPRAY 
IN THE MORNING.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-141315-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
311 PM AKST FRI JAN 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ173-141315-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
311 PM AKST FRI JAN 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ174-141315-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
311 PM AKST FRI JAN 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ175-141315-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
311 PM AKST FRI JAN 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ176-141315-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
311 PM AKST FRI JAN 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ177-141315-
ADAK TO KISKA-
311 PM AKST FRI JAN 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ178-141315-
KISKA TO ATTU-
311 PM AKST FRI JAN 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT IN THE EVENING.
SEAS 16 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ179-141315-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
311 PM AKST FRI JAN 13 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ180-141315-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
311 PM AKST FRI JAN 13 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. HEAVY 
FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ181-141315-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
311 PM AKST FRI JAN 13 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ185-141315-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
311 PM AKST FRI JAN 13 2017

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT...N WIND 35 KT...EXCEPT N 25 KT W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND.
SEAS 13 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN THROUGH WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
414 PM AKST Thu Jan 12 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
There is a large upper low over northern Alaska. Fairly strong
westerly flow aloft continues over southern Alaska to the south
of this low. There is an upper level ridge over the central Bering
sea with a very thin eastward extension into the Gulf of Alaska.
There is a large upper trough south of the Aleutians. This has a
band of moisture that stretches from just south of the Western
Aleutians eastward into the southern Gulf. Weak offshore flow
exists at the surface over the southern mainland.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The numerical models are in decent agreement for the short term
portion of the forecast (through Saturday afternoon). There are
some differences in where the models put the surface low Friday
and Friday night as it moves north-northeast into the Prince
William Sound area (by Saturday morning). Small differences in
the placement of this low can create considerable differences in
the precipitation field. Thus the forecast confidence is a bit
below normal today.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Fog and low stratus continue. IFR conditions are likely
through tonight. The atmosphere should begin to mix more Friday
morning, and the conditions should improve. Snow will move into
the area Friday afternoon resulting in MVFR/IFR conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The main challenge for the end of the week is with the North
Pacific storm system which is projected to push a warm front
across the Gulf tonight then to the northern Gulf coast on
Friday. This system is expected to bring widespread rain across
the Gulf and snow along the coast overnight, with snow spreading
slowly inland on Friday as an upper wave continues to pull the
front north. The current forecast was updated to increase
precipitation chances across all of Southcentral for this next
event as models continue to generally agree with the movement
of the surface low moving into western Prince William Sound.

For tonight, the front pushes along the western gulf waters with
the boundary stretching north across Kodiak Island, then north
across the eastern Kenai and northeast Gulf. Meanwhile, abundant
mid-level moisture streams north across the interior as the flow
becomes stronger and out of the southeast due to the subtropical
low, south of the Alaska Peninsula, being absorbed by the closed
low diving in along the west coast. As the front moves inland on
Friday, warmer air overruns the cold dome in place, especially
across the coastal areas of Prince William Sound which will result
in the highest snow accumulations. The air mass is expected to
warm above freezing for the northeast Gulf changing snow over
to rain later on Friday. Inland locations will remain as snow
through this event as a colder air mass pushes in from the
southwest on Friday. The challenge with the cold front pushing
into Southcentral on Friday night is that a narrow deformation
zone could set up bringing locally higher amounts than currently
expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A stout arctic trough will move into the region through Saturday,
bringing increasing northeast offshore flow and colder temperatures.
Some low stratus will hang around the Lower Kuskokwim Valley
before being scoured out tonight. Expect dry weather with the
exception of areas along/near the Alaska and Aleutian Ranges
where snow is possible Friday and Friday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
An impressive shot of arctic air will move over the Bering Sea
through Saturday, bringing increasing north to northeast winds
and widespread rain and snow showers. Eventually all snow showers
will encompass most of the Bering with threats for freezing spray
moving as far south as Unalaska by Friday night. Expect heavy
freezing spray along and near the southwest coast.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
Confidence is beginning to improve beginning Sunday that most of
the cold air moving into the Mainland will generally remain west
of the Alaska Range due to much better agreement in the placement
of the arctic trough. As a result temperatures over the Southwest
Mainland late this weekend are expected to fall below, but not
well below normal as was possible only a few days ago. From
Southcentral eastward, there is now increasing agreement of a
much warmer and active pattern due to the further west placement
of the upper level trough. In particular, there is much better
agreement in recent runs of the GFS and EC in a rapidly moving
and much deeper low into the Gulf Sun-Mon. It is beginning to
look more likely that this system will bringing widespread snow
and a chance for gusty winds to the Gulf Coast and Southcentral
into early next week, however confidence is low exact impact of
it. It is also important to note that this system will likely
bring temperatures east of the Alaska Range above normal by
Monday, a large change in the forecast over the last few days.

By the middle of next the models are good agreement that the arctic
trough will begin to spread over much of the Mainland. This setup
would bring the best potential for widespread cold throughout the
area, however with the large amount of recent variability in the
long term models there is fairly low confidence in any particular
solution.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Dense Fog Advisory 101 121.
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 160 180 181 185.
 		 Gale Warning 119 130 139 155 165 170 172 173 174
					  175 179 180 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...KH
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JA
LONG TERM...DEK