Small Craft Advisory 349, NWS Anchorage, AK

118 
FZAK52 PAFC 031132
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
332 AM AKDT WED MAY 3 2017

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-040015-
332 AM AKDT WED MAY 3 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A FRONT OVER THE WESTERN BERING WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. A 
DEVELOPING NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE TO 390 NM SOUTHWEST OF ADAK AT
975 MB TONIGHT...THEN MOVE TO 260 NM SOUTH OF ADAK AT 976 MB THU 
NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED FRONT OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL MOVE NORTH AND
EXTEND ALONG THE ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHERN BERING THIS EVENING THROUGH 
THU NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ150-040015-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
332 AM AKDT WED MAY 3 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 14 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 13 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ155-040015-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
332 AM AKDT WED MAY 3 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROM 
THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...NW WIND 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF 
BAYS AND PASSES IN THE EVENING. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...W WIND 15 KT EXCEPT NW 25 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E.
SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ160-040015-
BRISTOL BAY-
332 AM AKDT WED MAY 3 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ165-040015-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
332 AM AKDT WED MAY 3 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
FROM PORT MOLLER E...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT EXCEPT NW 20 KT FROM PORT MOLLER E. 
SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ170-040015-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
332 AM AKDT WED MAY 3 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT.
PATCHY FOG.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ171-040015-
UNALASKA BAY-
332 AM AKDT WED MAY 3 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ172-040015-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
332 AM AKDT WED MAY 3 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ173-040015-
NIKLOSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
332 AM AKDT WED MAY 3 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ174-040015-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
332 AM AKDT WED MAY 3 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ175-040015-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
332 AM AKDT WED MAY 3 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ176-040015-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
332 AM AKDT WED MAY 3 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ177-040015-
ADAK TO KISKA-
332 AM AKDT WED MAY 3 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. BERING SIDE...SEAS 10 FT. PACIFIC 
SIDE...SEAS 11 FT BUILDING TO 17 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.THU...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ178-040015-
KISKA TO ATTU-
332 AM AKDT WED MAY 3 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ179-040015-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
332 AM AKDT WED MAY 3 2017

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ180-040015-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
332 AM AKDT WED MAY 3 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FREEZING FOG.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FREEZING FOG.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ181-040015-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
332 AM AKDT WED MAY 3 2017

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
FREEZING SPRAY AND PATCHY FREEZING FOG.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ185-040015-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
332 AM AKDT WED MAY 3 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND, NW WIND 15 KT. W OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...E 25 KT
W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...E 25 KT W OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
818 AM AKDT Tue May 2 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The "anchor" in our flow pattern aloft so to speak is an upper
level low pressure centered over the Alaska Peninsula. The jet
stream is amplified, but still lies well south of the Aleutians.
While the longwave trough is controlling the flow, a shortwave
feature is what catches the eye on water vapor imagery this
morning. A strong disturbance is seen taking shape in the north
Pacific/southern Gulf, entering the eastern side of the longwave
trough. That disturbance and associated strong surface low will be
the focus for active weather in the short term.

Currently a trough rotating around the longwave has cleared
Southcentral AK leaving a short-term showery regime in it's wake,
but middle and high clouds are already streaming out ahead of the
Pacific low and toward Southcentral, so there won't be much of a
break before these clouds move in.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Synoptically, guidance is in great agreement with the developing
Gulf system having similar tracks and strengths of the lows
through the short term. Some slight positional differences start
to arise on Thursday after the system begins to weaken and move to
the east.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...uncertainty early on in the TAF revolves around how
quickly the Turnagain wind quits, but there is higher confidence
that winds will go northerly pretty quickly this morning.
Otherwise fairly high confidence through the period.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Conditions will rapidly deteriorate across the Gulf of Alaska
waters and Kodiak Island today as an unusually strong late season
low tracks up from the Pacific and into the Gulf. The bulk of
steady rain will initially remain offshore of the north Gulf
coast/Prince William Sound due to northerly flow out ahead of it.
However, the occluded front will gradually back its way onshore
tonight bringing increasing winds and rain. Flow will then shift
around to the east on Wednesday as the low makes its way
northward across the Gulf. This will bring steady rain to Western
Prince William Sound.

Meanwhile, much of interior Southcentral will start out today with
some sunshine. This will destabilize the boundary layer once
again and lead to gusty north winds this afternoon and evening as
some wind from aloft mixes down to the surface. As the front moves
onshore tonight and goes aloft, the mid to upper levels will
become more unstable. Expect a good chance of showers most places
with this front. Behind this, general instability will favor
mainly diurnal showers (afternoon/evening hours). The Gulf storm
will slowly lose steam over the Gulf as we head through the
remainder of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Showers will be more limited today as a large low tracking
northward into the Gulf quickly becomes the dominant feature and
pulls the upper low over the Alaska Peninsula southward. A trough
rotating through the lower Yukon River in the afternoon will
bring the potential for isolated thunderstorms to the Kuskokwim
Delta this afternoon and evening. North to northwesterly winds
will increase tonight through Wednesday morning for a rather dry
and windy day Wednesday, especially around the greater Bristol Bay
area. Winds will diminish Thursday, however conditions will
remain dry with the exception of a north to south running band of
showers forming just to the west of the Alaska and Aleutian Ranges.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
Upper level ridging over the western Aleutians will build east to
the central Aleutians today and tonight as a frontal system pushes
into the western Aleutians. As the ridge amplifies north across
the Bering low stratus and fog will become a concern underneath
it. The ridge will shift to the eastern Aleutians Wednesday night
and over the Alaska Peninsula Thursday as a somewhat stronger
front lifts north into the central Aleutians.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
On Thursday, the models are in fairly good agreement with holding
a weakening vertically stacked cyclone over the Gulf of Alaska
with several weak waves rotating around the center. This would
tend to keep most of the rain/showers across the Gulf though some
spotty showers will likely occur over the mainland with passing
upper waves. Ridging also looks to be over the eastern Bering Sea
with an upper low and associated surface cyclone heading toward
the western Aleutians.

By Friday afternoon, the Gulf cyclone has weakened and shifted
southeast. The upper ridge has now moved over Southwest Alaska
and the Aleutian cyclone is seen moving south of the eastern
Aleutians with its front spreading rain as far east as the
Pribilof Islands and Alaska Peninsula.

By Saturday afternoon, the ridge has now moved over the eastern
mainland and extends south across the east Central Gulf. The
cyclone near the eastern Aleutians has stalled but its frontal
system stretches east spreading rain to Southwest Alaska and the
western Gulf.

On Sunday and early next week, model solutions start to diverge
and the weather picture becomes a little more fuzzy. The main
difference is the evolution of a Rex Block (high over low) with a
ridge setting up over the mainland and a trough over the Gulf.
The ECMWF/WPC solutions tend to move the ridge over the mainland
fairly quickly north while the GFS keeps the ridge over the
southern mainland through Monday night. The ECMWF/WPC solutions
(preferred) would cause the upper trough to shift further north
allowing moisture to intrude into the southern mainland. The GFS
solution would delay the moisture intrusion until Tuesday.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Storm Warning 119 120 131 132
 		 Gale Warning 125 130 136 137 138 139 140 150 155 160.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MTL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JR
LONG TERM...MO