Gale Warning 311, NWS Anchorage, AK

106 
FZAK52 PAFC 022329
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
329 PM AKDT TUE MAY 2 2017

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-031200-
329 PM AKDT TUE MAY 2 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 965 MB LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA TONIGHT THEN WEAKEN
SLOWLY THROUGH THU. A FRONT OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA WILL MOVE
EAST AND STALL OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WHILE A SECONDARY AND
STRONGER GALE FORCE FRONT MOVES NORTH FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL STRETCH ACROSS THE
ENTIRE ALEUTIAN CHAIN.

$$

PKZ150-031200-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
329 PM AKDT TUE MAY 2 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ155-031200-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
329 PM AKDT TUE MAY 2 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT W OF THE SHUMAGIN
ISLANDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ160-031200-
BRISTOL BAY-
329 PM AKDT TUE MAY 2 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ165-031200-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
329 PM AKDT TUE MAY 2 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT EXCEPT NW 30 KT FROM PORT MOLLER E.
SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ170-031200-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
329 PM AKDT TUE MAY 2 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER NOON. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ171-031200-
UNALASKA BAY-
329 PM AKDT TUE MAY 2 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ172-031200-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
329 PM AKDT TUE MAY 2 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT W OF DUTCH HARBOR AFTER 
NOON. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT SUBSIDING. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ173-031200-
NIKLOSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
329 PM AKDT TUE MAY 2 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ174-031200-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
329 PM AKDT TUE MAY 2 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ175-031200-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
329 PM AKDT TUE MAY 2 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ176-031200-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
329 PM AKDT TUE MAY 2 2017

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ177-031200-
ADAK TO KISKA-
329 PM AKDT TUE MAY 2 2017

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT PACIFIC
SIDE. BERING SIDE, SEAS 9 FT. PACIFIC SIDE, SEAS 11 FT BUILDING TO 
16 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.THU...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ178-031200-
KISKA TO ATTU-
329 PM AKDT TUE MAY 2 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ179-031200-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
329 PM AKDT TUE MAY 2 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 
FT.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ180-031200-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
329 PM AKDT TUE MAY 2 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ181-031200-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
329 PM AKDT TUE MAY 2 2017

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ185-031200-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
329 PM AKDT TUE MAY 2 2017

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND... VARIABLE 10
KT W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND... SE 20 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND... E
20 KT W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
737 PM AKDT Mon May 1 2017

Updated to include long term discussion...

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 423 PM AKDT Mon May 1 2017/

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

An upper-level low sits over the Alaska Peninsula with the Pacific
Jet to its south. At the surface, a broad southerly flow is
keeping clouds over Southcentral and Kodiak Island. Radar trends
have kept light rain over much of Prince William Sound this
morning.

Clouds are spilling over the Western Alaska Range into
Southwest Alaska and the Bering. With a drier easterly flow,
visibility issues haven't cropped up for the mainland, but the
Pribilofs have had rounds of fog, rain and snow through the
morning as the islands sit on the edge of a stable and unstable
atmosphere. Radar trends have shown a scattering of rain showers
over the Bristol Bay region through the morning.

MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models were in good alignment and agreement at initialization.
Timing through the short-term was similar and a blend of the NAM-
GFS was used.

A modest amount of instability is noted this afternoon over the
Northern Susitna Valley and Kuskokwim Valley. The difference seen
today compared to previous days this last week is the absence of
mid- to- late morning sunshine today. This has kept convective
development in check through early afternoon.

The upper-level low will strengthen and shift from the Alaska
Peninsula to the Gulf of Alaska in the next 48 hours. As this
happens, a potent surface low in the Northern Pacific Ocean will
deepen and move north toward Kodiak Island through Tuesday
afternoon. While the greatest impacts will likely be felt in the
Panhandle, winds and seas will become a forecast challenge for
Southcentral.

For Southwest Alaska, a drier, colder flow featuring gap wind
challenges should be expected over the Alaska Peninsula.&&

AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions will continue tonight through Tuesday. Gusty
southeast winds will continue through late this evening.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

The front along the north Gulf coast this afternoon is moving
northward into Southcentral Alaska overnight. There are some gale
force winds along this front which will diminish quickly after the
front passes. The airmass is unstable behind the front as
temperatures aloft are cold (running -30 to -35 C at 500 mb). This
is keeping widespread showers behind the front.

Tomorrow will be a transition day between systems in Southcentral
as a strong storm force low will move into the Gulf of Alaska
from the south Tuesday night. The front ahead of it will move into
the Gulf tomorrow and bring a bit of rain to the Gulf coast
beginning Tuesday afternoon. Areas to the lee of the Chugach and
Kenai Mountains will see most of the rain downslope out.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The trough that is starting to push through the Bristol Bay area
will continue its northerly track and move through southwest
Alaska overnight tonight and Tuesday. As it passes it will kick up
showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms north and west of
Sleetmute. After the trough passes through, flow will become
northerly and diminish shower activity with the exception of some
afternoon showers and somewhat more steady rain around the Alaska
Range.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
As the low south of the Alaska Peninsula gets absorbed into the
stronger low approaching the Gulf from the North Pacific, a tight
pressure gradient will setup between this low and the ridging that
is moving across the Bering from the west. This setup will bring
strong northerly winds to areas around the eastern Bering, Eastern
Aleutians, and Alaska Peninsula through Wednesday. Behind the
ridge another system is approaching the Western Aleutians that
will make it to the islands Tuesday. This system will then push
into the northern Bering.
&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
On Thursday, the models are in fairly good agreement with holding
a weakening vertically stacked cyclone over the Gulf of Alaska
with several weak waves rotating around the center. This would
tend to keep most of the rain/showers across the Gulf though some
spotting showers will likely occur over the mainland with passing
upper waves. Ridging also looks to be over the eastern Bering Sea
with an upper low and associated surface cyclone heading toward
the western Aleutians.

By Friday afternoon, the Gulf cyclone has weakened and shifted
southeast. The upper ridge has now moved over Southwest Alaska
and the Aleutian cyclone is seen moving south of the eastern
Aleutians with its front spreading rain as fair east as the
Pribilof Islands and Alaska Peninsula.

By Saturday afternoon, the ridge has now moved over the eastern
mainland and extends south across the east Central Gulf. The
cyclone near the eastern Aleutians has stalled but its frontal
system stretches east spreading rain to Southwest Alaska and the
western Gulf.

On Sunday and early next week, model solutions start to diverge
and the weather picture becomes a little more fuzzy. The main
difference is the evolution of a Rex Block (high over low) with a
ridge setting up over the mainland and a trough over the Gulf.
The ECMWF/WPC solutions tend to move the ridge over the mainland
fairly quickly north while the GFS keeps the ridge over the
southern mainland through Monday night. The ECMWF/WPC solutions
(preferred) would cause the upper trough to shift further north
allowing moisture to intrude into the southern mainland. The GFS
solution would delay the moisture intrusion until Tuesday.

&&

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gales 119 120 131 132 150 351 352.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ/DS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DK
LONG TERM...RMC