Small Craft Advisory 305, NWS Anchorage, AK

237 
FZAK52 PAFC 122344
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
344 PM AKDT WED APR 12 2017

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-131300-
344 PM AKDT WED APR 12 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN BERING WILL
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. A FRONT OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS WILL 
DISSIPATE TONIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL ENTER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
TONIGHT...THEN MOVE TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS BY FRI. THE 
ASSOCIATED KAMCHATKA LOW WILL MOVE TO 220 NM NORTHWEST OF SHEMYA 
AT 982 MB BY FRI AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-131300-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
344 PM AKDT WED APR 12 2017

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ155-131300-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
344 PM AKDT WED APR 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT EXCEPT SE 15 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS
E. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN AND MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ160-131300-
BRISTOL BAY-
344 PM AKDT WED APR 12 2017

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.THU...E WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ165-131300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
344 PM AKDT WED APR 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT EXCEPT SE 25 KT FROM PORT MOLLER E. 
SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. 
SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN AND MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ170-131300-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
344 PM AKDT WED APR 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ171-131300-
UNALASKA BAY-
344 PM AKDT WED APR 12 2017

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING 
VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
RAIN.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN AND MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ172-131300-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
344 PM AKDT WED APR 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ173-131300-
NIKLOSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
344 PM AKDT WED APR 12 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ174-131300-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
344 PM AKDT WED APR 12 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ175-131300-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
344 PM AKDT WED APR 12 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ176-131300-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
344 PM AKDT WED APR 12 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 11 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ177-131300-
ADAK TO KISKA-
344 PM AKDT WED APR 12 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ178-131300-
KISKA TO ATTU-
344 PM AKDT WED APR 12 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ179-131300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
344 PM AKDT WED APR 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ180-131300-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
344 PM AKDT WED APR 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ181-131300-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
344 PM AKDT WED APR 12 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. PATCHY FREEZING FOG.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT.

$$

PKZ185-131300-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
344 PM AKDT WED APR 12 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SE 25 KT W OF 
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SE 30 KT W
OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
402 PM AKDT Tue Apr 11 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
Satellite imagery shows a large deep low (with central pressure in
the 970s) lifting slowly northward across the far western Aleutians.
A gale force frontal system is spreading far out from the low center
and across the Bering Sea. The eastward progression of the front
is slowing as a high amplitude builds downstream over the eastern
Bering Sea and into western Alaska. A weak upper level trough and
low continue over the Gulf of Alaska, although there is very
little sensible weather, with just a few clouds and showers. Most
of Southcentral and Southwest Alaska are looking up at sunny skies.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Model guidance remains in excellent agreement with large scale
features over the next couple days and forecast confidence is
high.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Sunny days and clear nights can be expected through Sat as high
pressure builds over interior AK. A pressure gradient will exist
between the interior high and a trough of low pressure along the
north Gulf coast. This will allow some gusty winds to develop
through channeled terrain along the coast. The warming trend will
resume, with valley temperature reaching the upper 40s to upper
50s during the afternoon, with lows in the 20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Upper level ridging will build across Southwest Alaska tonight
through Wednesday keeping the frontal system in the eastern Bering
offshore. While clouds will impact the coastal areas, light
precipitation should only extend as far east as Nunivak Island and
the western tip of the Alaska Peninsula. The upper level ridge
will persist inland through Thursday as the frontal system
weakens and dissipates along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
The frontal system associated with the vertically stacked low in
the western Aleutians will continue to gradually weakening as it
tracks slowly east over the Pribilof Islands and eastern Aleutians
this afternoon and evening. As the supporting upper level low
tracks northeast into the Bering tonight through Wednesday, the
front will stall over the eastern Bering, pinned up against the
blocking upper ridge over mainland Alaska. The next frontal system
will push into the western Aleutians Wednesday Night and Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
There are several areas of disagreement moving into the mid and
long term. The first concerns a front moving through the Bering
and towards southwest Alaska Friday night into Saturday. All
guidance seems to be stalling this front more than yesterday's
runs but the GEM and GFS still have it making landfall. However,
the EC stalls it over the eastern Bering without it making it to
the west coast.

The second area of concern comes Saturday night into Sunday with
a trough tracking south through the central mainland. The GEM has
followed the EC solution which is showing the trough stalling
over the central mainland and elongating from east to west, while
the GFS keeps pushing the trough south through Southcentral
Alaska. One of the major impact differences between these two
solutions is that if the GFS verifies it will pull down much more
cold air to Southcentral Alaska, while the GEM and EC would keep
the colder air north of the Alaska Range.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gales 170 173 174 177 178 179 185 411-414.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JR
LONG TERM...DK