Small Craft Advisory 30, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Jan 8, 2017, 3:17 PM AKST (00:17 UTC)

Expired

Jan 9, 2017, 4:00 AM AKST

In force

13 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

038 
FZAK51 PAFC 090017
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
317 PM AKST SUN JAN 8 2017

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-091300-
317 PM AKST SUN JAN 8 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A TROUGH OVER THE NORTH GULF COAST AND SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA
BROADENS THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA EXITS WESTWARD THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-091300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
317 PM AKST SUN JAN 8 2017

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. STRONGER GUSTS 35 KT OUT OF THE COPPER
RIVER DELTA. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU AND FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ120-091300-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
317 PM AKST SUN JAN 8 2017

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 7 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ121-091300-
RESURRECTION BAY-
317 PM AKST SUN JAN 8 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ125-091300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
317 PM AKST SUN JAN 8 2017

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. STRONGER GUSTS 30 KT OUT OF NORTHEASTERN
BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-091300-
PORT VALDEZ-
317 PM AKST SUN JAN 8 2017

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-091300-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
317 PM AKST SUN JAN 8 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-091300-
VALDEZ ARM-
317 PM AKST SUN JAN 8 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ129-091300-
PASSAGE CANAL-
317 PM AKST SUN JAN 8 2017

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
STRONGER GUSTS 35 KT NEAR WHITTIER IN THE EVENING. SEAS 2 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ130-091300-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
317 PM AKST SUN JAN 8 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ131-091300-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
317 PM AKST SUN JAN 8 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 7 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ132-091300-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
317 PM AKST SUN JAN 8 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ136-091300-
CHINIAK BAY-
317 PM AKST SUN JAN 8 2017

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-091300-
MARMOT BAY-
317 PM AKST SUN JAN 8 2017

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ138-091300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
317 PM AKST SUN JAN 8 2017

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
5 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ139-091300-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
317 PM AKST SUN JAN 8 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ140-091300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
317 PM AKST SUN JAN 8 2017

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. AREAS OF
FREEZING FOG.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT.
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 10 KT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT.

$$

PKZ141-091300-
KACHEMAK BAY-
317 PM AKST SUN JAN 8 2017

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Jan 8, 5:07 AM AKST, 10 hours 10 minutes earlier.

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
507 AM AKST Sun Jan 8 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The longwave pattern remains an impressive Omega Block with a
ridge centered over western Alaska. The block is then anchored by
one low near the Kamchatka Peninsula and the other off the coast
of Washington/Oregon. The 30,000' jet is fairly continuous over
the ridge moving at about 120kts. This is leading to a rather
interesting set-up across the mainland of AK where Barrow is more
than 20F degrees warmer than Anchorage. Warm air from the North
Pacific is being dragged up and over the ridge and into the Arctic
Coast. Meanwhile, dry and cold Arctic air is being ferried
southward across much of the Interior and into South Central. A
surface high under the ridge is making for increasingly stable
conditions. There is a little low stratus over portions of
southern AK, but offshore flow and dry air is helping to keep
fog/stratus from developing and becoming widespread. The most
active weather in the state is west of Dutch Harbor. A storm-
force warm occlusion is sliding through the Central Aleutians into
the western Bering. It peaked overnight with gusts around 70mph
and should continue to weaken through the morning as rain and snow
showers move in behind it.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models remain in very good agreement leading to high overall forecast
confidence. We did trend the winds over the western Bering down a
little faster and also held the precipitation further west as the
ridge shows no signs of giving way. Most adjustments were made
using the NAM and manual edits to outflow winds in South Central.
Fog will start to become an issue tonight from the Cook Inlet up
through the Copper River Basin, but models are notorious for
struggling to handle it, especially on the first night it
develops.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist. Fog is
expected to develop late tonight mainly along the Inlet, but
exactly how dense and widespread will need to be assessed through
the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Strong ridging will continue to provide dry conditions across
Southcentral Alaska. Persistent offshore flow on the east side
of the upper ridge will maintain a lee side surface trough over
the northern Gulf. This will sustain tight surface pressure
gradients along the coast and keep gap winds going.

Meanwhile, low level temperatures (above the surface) will
steadily warm under the ridge. This has already led to significant
temperature inversions as indicated in this morning's Anchorage
sounding (5 degrees at the surface warming to 40 degrees at 3000
feet). Expect areas of fog to form over northern Cook Inlet as
these inversions strengthen, perhaps leading to a repeat of the
widespread dense fog from a week ago. The rest of Southcentral
will either be lacking a moisture source or too windy for
significant fog formation, though there will likely be some more
isolated areas of fog in sheltered valleys. Temperatures will be
near to slightly below normal for areas near sea level, with much
warmer above normal temperatures in the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The current period of benign weather will continue well into the
upcoming week as a very strong high pressure system remains the
dominant feature. Winds should be relatively light but the
offshore component of the winds will help keep skies mostly clear
thus preventing any chances of snow within the next week or so.
There is a chance for some patchy fog to develop over the
Southwest coast early this morning, especially near Nunivak
Island, but any fog that does develop should be very patchy and
short lived. More widespread fog is expected to develop over the
Southwest Mainland, as the strong high sets up over the area
Monday into Tuesday. A return of seasonal temperatures has
accompanied the high pressure system and these near normal
temperatures will likely continue well into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
The frontal boundary over the western Bering Sea will begin to push
into the Central Aleutians and Bering today, while weakening and
halting it's eastward progress as it runs into the dominant high
pressure over the mainland. The front is expected to dissipate
Monday morning west of the Pribilof Islands before the high
pressure over the mainland retrogrades westward. Decent rainfall
has been reported along the frontal boundary thanks to a deep
southerly fetch from the subtropics, but much of the Bering Sea
remains on the dry side.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The blocking high pressure remains the key feature as it
maintains it hold over the Southwest/Southcentral region. There
may be some fog development as this synoptic feature develops
through the long term forecast. Otherwise, all low pressure
systems will remain on the periphery of the Western
Bering/Aleutians. Meanwhile, an upper level shortwave rides over
the top of the ridge while the high pressure retrogrades westward
into the Western Bering Sea by midweek. This allows the
aforementioned shortwave to drop down into the
Southwest/Southcentral Alaska region by Friday. The GFS model has
this shortwave becoming positively tilted with an upper level
closed low developing over the Seward Peninsula area by Sunday.
The ECMWF model positions this closed low over the Southcentral
region. Therefore, the forecast confidence is below average due to
the model discrepancies with placement of the aforementioned
synoptic feature.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale...127 173 175 176

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...TP
LONG TERM...PD

Small Craft Advisories in Alaska, 2017Every small craft advisory in 2017

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.