Gale Warning 43, NWS Anchorage, AK

961 
FZAK51 PAFC 100045
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
345 PM AKST MON JAN 9 2017

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-101400-
345 PM AKST MON JAN 9 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A TROUGH OVER THE NORTH GULF COAST AND SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA
EXTENDS INTO THE SOUTHWEST GULF BY TUESDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH
WED.

$$

PKZ119-101400-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
345 PM AKST MON JAN 9 2017

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ120-101400-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
345 PM AKST MON JAN 9 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ121-101400-
RESURRECTION BAY-
345 PM AKST MON JAN 9 2017

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ125-101400-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
345 PM AKST MON JAN 9 2017

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-101400-
PORT VALDEZ-
345 PM AKST MON JAN 9 2017

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ127-101400-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
345 PM AKST MON JAN 9 2017

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-101400-
VALDEZ ARM-
345 PM AKST MON JAN 9 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-101400-
PASSAGE CANAL-
345 PM AKST MON JAN 9 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ130-101400-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
345 PM AKST MON JAN 9 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ131-101400-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
345 PM AKST MON JAN 9 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ132-101400-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
345 PM AKST MON JAN 9 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ136-101400-
CHINIAK BAY-
345 PM AKST MON JAN 9 2017

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ137-101400-
MARMOT BAY-
345 PM AKST MON JAN 9 2017

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-101400-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
345 PM AKST MON JAN 9 2017

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ139-101400-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
345 PM AKST MON JAN 9 2017

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ140-101400-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
345 PM AKST MON JAN 9 2017

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N WIND 10 KT.

$$

PKZ141-101400-
KACHEMAK BAY-
345 PM AKST MON JAN 9 2017

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

864 
FZAK51 PAFC 101251
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
351 AM AKST TUE JAN 10 2017

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-110145-
351 AM AKST TUE JAN 10 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED NIGHT.

$$

PKZ119-110145-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
351 AM AKST TUE JAN 10 2017

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ120-110145-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
351 AM AKST TUE JAN 10 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ121-110145-
RESURRECTION BAY-
351 AM AKST TUE JAN 10 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ125-110145-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
351 AM AKST TUE JAN 10 2017

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-110145-
PORT VALDEZ-
351 AM AKST TUE JAN 10 2017

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ127-110145-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
351 AM AKST TUE JAN 10 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-110145-
VALDEZ ARM-
351 AM AKST TUE JAN 10 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-110145-
PASSAGE CANAL-
351 AM AKST TUE JAN 10 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 2 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 3 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 3 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ130-110145-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
351 AM AKST TUE JAN 10 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ131-110145-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
351 AM AKST TUE JAN 10 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ132-110145-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
351 AM AKST TUE JAN 10 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT AND WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ136-110145-
CHINIAK BAY-
351 AM AKST TUE JAN 10 2017

.TODAY...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ137-110145-
MARMOT BAY-
351 AM AKST TUE JAN 10 2017

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-110145-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
351 AM AKST TUE JAN 10 2017

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ139-110145-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
351 AM AKST TUE JAN 10 2017

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ140-110145-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
351 AM AKST TUE JAN 10 2017

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT.
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT.

$$

PKZ141-110145-
KACHEMAK BAY-
351 AM AKST TUE JAN 10 2017

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
412 PM AKST Sun Jan 8 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
There is a large upper level blocking high (omega block) over
Alaska and the eastern Bering Sea, centered near the Bering
Strait. Surface high pressure is over the Alaska mainland,
resulting in weak offshore flow. There is an upper level low
off the east coast of the Kamchatka Peninsula. An associated front
stretches from the central Aleutians north-northwest across the
Bering. This front is nearly stationary, moving just slightly
westward, and weakening.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The numerical models are in very good agreement. Forecast
confidence is generally higher than normal. The exception to this
is the forecasting of fog, especially over the Cook inlet area.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Conditions are favorable for fog development over the
inlet. Some fog should move into the airport beginning tonight
taking conditions down to IFR/LIFR. Conditions should then improve
Monday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

The ridge remains over the area with a few high clouds, and areas
of fog and low clouds near Knik and Turnagain arms and the
northern portion of Cook Inlet. As the airmass remains in place low
level moisture will increase, and overnight fog will increase in
coverage through Tue night. In addition to northern Cook Inlet and
associated arms, overnight fog will develop along the Copper
River beginning late tonight. Otherwise below normal high and low
temperatures will persist, and the gradient along the coast is
slowly weakening. Persistent winds through gaps are expected to slowly
diminish over the next couple of days.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

High pressure over the Alaska mainland will persist through the
upcoming week while slowly retrograding toward the Bering Sea.
This will allow the period of quiet and dry weather to persist
across Southwest Alaska. Strong low-level inversions will continue
to set up as surface temperatures cool significantly at night
with 850 mb temperatures warming above freezing. This could
facilitate the development of fog at night across parts of
Southwest Alaska but weak offshore flow will continue to fight off
chances for widespread fog chances.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

The front across the western Bering Sea has fallen apart
significantly the past 24 hours and will dissipate Monday morning.
Rainfall chances will diminish as the front falls apart and the
remaining gale force winds that are currently observed will
diminish to 20 kt or less. As mentioned in the section above, the
high pressure system over the Alaska mainland will retrograde over
the Bering Sea early next week which will help keep precipitation
chances near zero except over the far Western Aleutians.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The massive blocking high pressure remains positioned over the
Southwest/Southcentral region as we head into Wednesday. This
feature retrogrades westward through the western Bering into the
eastern Siberian area. An upper level closed low over the Beaufort
Sea begins to drop down before being located over the Brooks Range
by Friday afternoon. The associated trough becomes positively
tilted, and extends through the Fort Yukon southwest through the
Southwest Alaska region into the eastern Bering Sea. By Saturday
evening the closed low will be located over the western Alaska
Range region with the trough extending through the Aleutian Range
into the Eastern Aleutians. Meanwhile, at the surface two weak
lows develop in the northern Gulf and in the Prince William Sound
by Saturday. By Monday the upper levels depict the closed low
transitioning into a broad trough over the Southcentral region
extending through the Gulf. This feature is reflected at the
surface as a 990 mb low in the northern Gulf by Monday morning.
The bulk of the precipitation will be along northern Gulf, and the
coastal communities with precipitation streaming into the Copper
River Basin by next weekend. Meanwhile, the Southwest Alaska
region remains dominated by offshore flow, and accompanied by
drier conditions with cooler temperatures with the northerly flow.
The forecast confidence has improved to average as the models have
come into better agreement.

All low pressure systems remain on the periphery of the Western
Bering/Aleutians. There will be an upper level shortwave that
rides over the top of the ridge while the high pressure
retrogrades westward into the Western Bering Sea. This allows a
shortwave to drop down into the Southwest/Southcentral Alaska
region by Friday. The GFS models have this shortwave becoming
positively tilted with an upper level closed low developing over
the Seward Peninsula area by Sunday. While the ECMWF model have this
closed low positioned over the Southcentral region. Therefore, the
forecast confidence is low due to the model discrepancies with
placement of the aforementioned synoptic feature.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale warning...127.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MC
LONG TERM...PD