Small Craft Advisory 28, NWS Anchorage, AK

038 
FZAK51 PAFC 090017
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
317 PM AKST SUN JAN 8 2017

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-091300-
317 PM AKST SUN JAN 8 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A TROUGH OVER THE NORTH GULF COAST AND SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA
BROADENS THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA EXITS WESTWARD THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-091300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
317 PM AKST SUN JAN 8 2017

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. STRONGER GUSTS 35 KT OUT OF THE COPPER
RIVER DELTA. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU AND FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ120-091300-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
317 PM AKST SUN JAN 8 2017

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 7 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ121-091300-
RESURRECTION BAY-
317 PM AKST SUN JAN 8 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ125-091300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
317 PM AKST SUN JAN 8 2017

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. STRONGER GUSTS 30 KT OUT OF NORTHEASTERN
BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-091300-
PORT VALDEZ-
317 PM AKST SUN JAN 8 2017

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-091300-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
317 PM AKST SUN JAN 8 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-091300-
VALDEZ ARM-
317 PM AKST SUN JAN 8 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ129-091300-
PASSAGE CANAL-
317 PM AKST SUN JAN 8 2017

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
STRONGER GUSTS 35 KT NEAR WHITTIER IN THE EVENING. SEAS 2 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ130-091300-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
317 PM AKST SUN JAN 8 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ131-091300-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
317 PM AKST SUN JAN 8 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 7 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ132-091300-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
317 PM AKST SUN JAN 8 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ136-091300-
CHINIAK BAY-
317 PM AKST SUN JAN 8 2017

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-091300-
MARMOT BAY-
317 PM AKST SUN JAN 8 2017

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ138-091300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
317 PM AKST SUN JAN 8 2017

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
5 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ139-091300-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
317 PM AKST SUN JAN 8 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ140-091300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
317 PM AKST SUN JAN 8 2017

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. AREAS OF
FREEZING FOG.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT.
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 10 KT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT.

$$

PKZ141-091300-
KACHEMAK BAY-
317 PM AKST SUN JAN 8 2017

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
416 PM AKST Sat Jan 7 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
High pressure continues to dominate the pattern over Alaska this
morning, with a strong Omega block in place over the West
Coast/eastern Bering Sea. At the surface, this is also reflected
with high pressure centered over eastern Canada that extends an
arm all the way across southwest Alaska and the AK Pen. Far to the
south, in the Northern Pacific, a low pressure system slides off
to the south. While this system did not bring any clouds or
precipitation to Alaska, it did combine with the high over the
mainland to produce a tight gradient along the eastern Prince
William Sound. As a result, outflow winds were quite strong
through Valdez and Cordova last night, but the gradient is
weakening and winds are decreasing today. The only other weather
of note today is a low pressure system centered near the Kamchatka
peninsula which is currently pushing a front through the central
Aleutians. Rain and storm force winds are accompanying this front
but expected to diminish as the front abuts the high entrenched
over the state.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Model agreement is very good and forecast confidence is high. NAM
was primarily used for increased detail over terrain.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist. Conditions are
too dry to expect fog during this TAF period, but will bear
watching on Sunday as winds decrease and surface moisture
gradually increases.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

High pressure builds over the region and the pressure gradient
along the coast continues to weaken. Expect below normal high and
low temperatures through Sun, with light winds except for
diminishing outflow winds through channeled terrain. Few if any
clouds will be over the forecast area.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

The current period of doldrum weather will continue well into the
upcoming week as a very strong high pressure system remains the
dominant feature. Winds should be relatively light but the
offshore component of the winds will help keep skies mostly clear
thus preventing any chances of snow within the next week or so.
There is a chance some patchy fog develops along the Kuskokwim
Delta coast this evening, especially near Nunivak Island, but
should be very patchy and short lived. A return of seasonal
temperatures has accompanied the high pressure system and these
near normal temperatures will likely continue well into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

The frontal boundary over the western Bering Sea set up just as
expected today with winds ranging from 40 to 50 kt based on recent
scatterometer data. This front will nudge eastward through the
overnight hours as it weakens but it's eastward progress will be
stopped due to the dominant high pressure over the Alaska mainland
and the eastern Bering Sea. The front is expected to dissipate
Monday morning west of the Pribilof Islands before the high
pressure over the mainland retrogrades westward. Decent rainfall
has been reported along the frontal boundary thanks to a deep
southerly fetch from the subtropics, but much of the Bering Sea
remains on the dry side.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The blocking high pressure remains the key feature as it
maintains it hold over the Southwest/Southcentral region. There
may be some fog development as this synoptic develops through the
long term forecast time-frame. Otherwise, all low pressure systems
will remain on the periphery of the Western Bering/Aleutians.
Meanwhile, an upper level shortwave rides over the top of the
ridge while the high pressure retrogrades westward into the
Western Bering Sea. This allows the aforementioned shortwave to
drop down into the Southwest/Southcentral Alaska region by Friday.
The GFS model has this shortwave becoming positively tilted with
an upper level closed low developing over the Seward Peninsula
area by Sunday. While the ECMWF model positions this closed low
over the Southcentral region. Therefore, the forecast confidence
is below average due to the model discrepancies with placement of
the aforementioned synoptic feature.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Storm...176 177 Gale...127 131 173 174 175 178 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...LF
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MC
LONG TERM...PD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1121 PM AKST SAT JAN 07 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1024 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 NNE ADAK STATION      51.86N 176.63W
01/07/2017  M69 MPH                             AK   MESONET

&&

RDUELL