Gale Warning 42, NWS Anchorage, AK

551 
FZAK52 PAFC 090000
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
300 PM AKST SUN JAN 8 2017

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-091300-
300 PM AKST SUN JAN 8 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
BOGOSLOF VOLCANO 53 NM WEST OF DUTCH HARBOR REMAINS ACTIVE. A 980
MB CENTRAL KAMCHATKA LOW EXTENDS A FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
THAT DISSIPATES MON AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS OVER THE
BERING SEA THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-091300-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
300 PM AKST SUN JAN 8 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ155-091300-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
300 PM AKST SUN JAN 8 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 7 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ160-091300-
BRISTOL BAY-
300 PM AKST SUN JAN 8 2017

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 1 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS
1 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 1 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ165-091300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
300 PM AKST SUN JAN 8 2017

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ170-091300-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
300 PM AKST SUN JAN 8 2017

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ171-091300-
UNALASKA BAY-
300 PM AKST SUN JAN 8 2017

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ172-091300-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
300 PM AKST SUN JAN 8 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ173-091300-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
300 PM AKST SUN JAN 8 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ174-091300-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
300 PM AKST SUN JAN 8 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ175-091300-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
300 PM AKST SUN JAN 8 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ176-091300-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
300 PM AKST SUN JAN 8 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ177-091300-
ADAK TO KISKA-
300 PM AKST SUN JAN 8 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING E AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ178-091300-
KISKA TO ATTU-
300 PM AKST SUN JAN 8 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 15 FT.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 13 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ179-091300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
300 PM AKST SUN JAN 8 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ180-091300-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
300 PM AKST SUN JAN 8 2017

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS
2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ181-091300-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
300 PM AKST SUN JAN 8 2017

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ185-091300-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
300 PM AKST SUN JAN 8 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
416 PM AKST Sat Jan 7 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
High pressure continues to dominate the pattern over Alaska this
morning, with a strong Omega block in place over the West
Coast/eastern Bering Sea. At the surface, this is also reflected
with high pressure centered over eastern Canada that extends an
arm all the way across southwest Alaska and the AK Pen. Far to the
south, in the Northern Pacific, a low pressure system slides off
to the south. While this system did not bring any clouds or
precipitation to Alaska, it did combine with the high over the
mainland to produce a tight gradient along the eastern Prince
William Sound. As a result, outflow winds were quite strong
through Valdez and Cordova last night, but the gradient is
weakening and winds are decreasing today. The only other weather
of note today is a low pressure system centered near the Kamchatka
peninsula which is currently pushing a front through the central
Aleutians. Rain and storm force winds are accompanying this front
but expected to diminish as the front abuts the high entrenched
over the state.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Model agreement is very good and forecast confidence is high. NAM
was primarily used for increased detail over terrain.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist. Conditions are
too dry to expect fog during this TAF period, but will bear
watching on Sunday as winds decrease and surface moisture
gradually increases.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

High pressure builds over the region and the pressure gradient
along the coast continues to weaken. Expect below normal high and
low temperatures through Sun, with light winds except for
diminishing outflow winds through channeled terrain. Few if any
clouds will be over the forecast area.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

The current period of doldrum weather will continue well into the
upcoming week as a very strong high pressure system remains the
dominant feature. Winds should be relatively light but the
offshore component of the winds will help keep skies mostly clear
thus preventing any chances of snow within the next week or so.
There is a chance some patchy fog develops along the Kuskokwim
Delta coast this evening, especially near Nunivak Island, but
should be very patchy and short lived. A return of seasonal
temperatures has accompanied the high pressure system and these
near normal temperatures will likely continue well into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

The frontal boundary over the western Bering Sea set up just as
expected today with winds ranging from 40 to 50 kt based on recent
scatterometer data. This front will nudge eastward through the
overnight hours as it weakens but it's eastward progress will be
stopped due to the dominant high pressure over the Alaska mainland
and the eastern Bering Sea. The front is expected to dissipate
Monday morning west of the Pribilof Islands before the high
pressure over the mainland retrogrades westward. Decent rainfall
has been reported along the frontal boundary thanks to a deep
southerly fetch from the subtropics, but much of the Bering Sea
remains on the dry side.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The blocking high pressure remains the key feature as it
maintains it hold over the Southwest/Southcentral region. There
may be some fog development as this synoptic develops through the
long term forecast time-frame. Otherwise, all low pressure systems
will remain on the periphery of the Western Bering/Aleutians.
Meanwhile, an upper level shortwave rides over the top of the
ridge while the high pressure retrogrades westward into the
Western Bering Sea. This allows the aforementioned shortwave to
drop down into the Southwest/Southcentral Alaska region by Friday.
The GFS model has this shortwave becoming positively tilted with
an upper level closed low developing over the Seward Peninsula
area by Sunday. While the ECMWF model positions this closed low
over the Southcentral region. Therefore, the forecast confidence
is below average due to the model discrepancies with placement of
the aforementioned synoptic feature.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Storm...176 177 Gale...127 131 173 174 175 178 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...LF
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MC
LONG TERM...PD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1121 PM AKST SAT JAN 07 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1024 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 NNE ADAK STATION      51.86N 176.63W
01/07/2017  M69 MPH                             AK   MESONET

&&

RDUELL