Small Craft Advisory 248, NWS Anchorage, AK

654 
FZAK51 PAFC 242339
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
339 PM AKDT FRI MAR 24 2017

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-251245-
339 PM AKDT FRI MAR 24 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE GULF THROUGH SUN.

$$

PKZ119-251245-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
339 PM AKDT FRI MAR 24 2017

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER
DELTA. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER
DELTA IN THE MORNING. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ120-251245-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
339 PM AKDT FRI MAR 24 2017

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ121-251245-
RESURRECTION BAY-
339 PM AKDT FRI MAR 24 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ125-251245-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
339 PM AKDT FRI MAR 24 2017

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-251245-
PORT VALDEZ-
339 PM AKDT FRI MAR 24 2017

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-251245-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
339 PM AKDT FRI MAR 24 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-251245-
VALDEZ ARM-
339 PM AKDT FRI MAR 24 2017

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-251245-
PASSAGE CANAL-
339 PM AKDT FRI MAR 24 2017

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 2 FT. 
FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
TO 35 KT IN THE MORNING NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ130-251245-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
339 PM AKDT FRI MAR 24 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ131-251245-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
339 PM AKDT FRI MAR 24 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ132-251245-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
339 PM AKDT FRI MAR 24 2017

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT EXCEPT NW 20 KT N OF DANGEROUS
CAPE. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT EXCEPT NW 20 KT N OF DANGEROUS CAPE.
SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ136-251245-
CHINIAK BAY-
339 PM AKDT FRI MAR 24 2017

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ137-251245-
MARMOT BAY-
339 PM AKDT FRI MAR 24 2017

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-251245-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
339 PM AKDT FRI MAR 24 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ139-251245-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
339 PM AKDT FRI MAR 24 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING 
SPRAY IN THE MORNING.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ140-251245-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
339 PM AKDT FRI MAR 24 2017

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT.
.MON THROUGH WED...NE WIND 10 KT.

$$

PKZ141-251245-
KACHEMAK BAY-
339 PM AKDT FRI MAR 24 2017

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
458 PM AKDT Thu Mar 23 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A short-wave which dropped into the long-wave trough sitting over
Southcentral Alaska and the Gulf of Alaska last night is now
helping to kick the entire trough eastward. There are some showers
out ahead of this trough, focused along a surface trough over the
central Gulf. A few clouds and isolated showers extend northward
through the Cordova area and into the Copper River Basin.
Otherwise, clear and cool conditions continue to dominate the
southern Alaska mainland and eastern Bering Sea regions.

Meanwhile, a large deep vertically stacked low (with estimated
central pressure of 965 mb) around 700 miles south of the Aleutian
chain is tracking slowly northward. An east-west oriented occluded
front is spreading out from the low center, leading to increasing
easterlies along the Aleutians.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Model remain in excellent agreement through Friday night and
forecast confidence remains high.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Some moisture from the Gulf make bring a few snow showers inland
tonight across eastern Prince William Sound and into the Copper
River Basin. Otherwise sunny days and clear nights will continue
across the rest of the region through Sat. Gusty winds through
channeled terrain will also continue as northerly surface winds
persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The upper level ridge over the eastern Bering will persist through
the weekend with a cold upper level trough stretching from
northern Alaska into Southcentral Alaska. This flow pattern will
put Southwest Alaska under northwesterly flow aloft with the
surface winds out of the north to northeast bringing continued
cool, dry and generally sunny weather.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
A gale force frontal system approaching from the south will reach
the western and central Aleutians overnight tonight, bringing
gusty winds and rain to the area. The front will lift into the
southern Bering Friday and Friday night. Several additional
frontal waves spinning around the parent low south of the
Aleutians will rotate north across the Aleutians over the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The ridging over the Bering Sea continues through Saturday before
an upstream North Pacific low pressure system pushes the ridge
into the Gulf of Alaska by Monday. Meanwhile, an upper level
closed low will be positioned over the Anchorage Bowl with an
associated trough extending into the Gulf from Saturday through
Tuesday, before merging with several weak North Pacific Lows.
While the next major storm force low tracks towards the Eastern
Aleutians by Thursday morning, with an associated weather front
entering the Gulf. This brings a pattern change with the offshore
flow over the Southcentral region diminishing, and shifting to
onshore southerly flow. There is uncertainty with timing of how
long the arctic trough stalls over the Southcentral region. The
GFS model is showing a faster solution, and the ECMWF was slower
with this synoptic feature. Meanwhile, by Thursday the jet stream
transitions to a southwesterly flow just south of the Eastern
Aleutians extending eastward into the lower southeastern Gulf.
This enhances storm tracks from the North Pacific area into the
Eastern Aleutians/Gulf region. The forecast confidence is low as
we head into midweek and beyond due to the uncertainty with the
timing/strength with the upcoming low pressure systems as they
track towards the Southwest/Southcentral regions.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray 121 139 185.
Gale warning 170 172 173 174 175 176 177 178

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SEB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PEPE
LONG TERM...PD