Small Craft Advisory 247, NWS Anchorage, AK

890 
FZAK52 PAFC 242335
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
335 PM AKDT FRI MAR 24 2017

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-251230-
335 PM AKDT FRI MAR 24 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
BOGOSLOF VOLCANO 53 NM WEST OF DUTCH HARBOR REMAINS ACTIVE. A 
FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN FRI NIGHT THEN THEN 
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH SUN. A PACIFIC LOW WILL TRACK TO 200 NM
SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR SUN AFTERNOON AT 978 MB.

$$

PKZ150-251230-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
335 PM AKDT FRI MAR 24 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ155-251230-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
335 PM AKDT FRI MAR 24 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT EXCEPT E 15 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS
E. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT EXCEPT E 15 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E.
SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT EXCEPT NE 15 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN
ISLANDS E. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ160-251230-
BRISTOL BAY-
335 PM AKDT FRI MAR 24 2017

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 10 KT.

$$

PKZ165-251230-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
335 PM AKDT FRI MAR 24 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ170-251230-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
335 PM AKDT FRI MAR 24 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ171-251230-
UNALASKA BAY-
335 PM AKDT FRI MAR 24 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ172-251230-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
335 PM AKDT FRI MAR 24 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ173-251230-
NIKLOSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
335 PM AKDT FRI MAR 24 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ174-251230-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
335 PM AKDT FRI MAR 24 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ175-251230-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
335 PM AKDT FRI MAR 24 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ176-251230-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
335 PM AKDT FRI MAR 24 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ177-251230-
ADAK TO KISKA-
335 PM AKDT FRI MAR 24 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ178-251230-
KISKA TO ATTU-
335 PM AKDT FRI MAR 24 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ179-251230-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
335 PM AKDT FRI MAR 24 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY AND PATCHY
FREEZING FOG.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ180-251230-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
335 PM AKDT FRI MAR 24 2017

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 20 KT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT.

$$

PKZ181-251230-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
335 PM AKDT FRI MAR 24 2017

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. PATCHY FREEZING FOG.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 20 KT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT.

$$

PKZ185-251230-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
335 PM AKDT FRI MAR 24 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
458 PM AKDT Thu Mar 23 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A short-wave which dropped into the long-wave trough sitting over
Southcentral Alaska and the Gulf of Alaska last night is now
helping to kick the entire trough eastward. There are some showers
out ahead of this trough, focused along a surface trough over the
central Gulf. A few clouds and isolated showers extend northward
through the Cordova area and into the Copper River Basin.
Otherwise, clear and cool conditions continue to dominate the
southern Alaska mainland and eastern Bering Sea regions.

Meanwhile, a large deep vertically stacked low (with estimated
central pressure of 965 mb) around 700 miles south of the Aleutian
chain is tracking slowly northward. An east-west oriented occluded
front is spreading out from the low center, leading to increasing
easterlies along the Aleutians.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Model remain in excellent agreement through Friday night and
forecast confidence remains high.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Some moisture from the Gulf make bring a few snow showers inland
tonight across eastern Prince William Sound and into the Copper
River Basin. Otherwise sunny days and clear nights will continue
across the rest of the region through Sat. Gusty winds through
channeled terrain will also continue as northerly surface winds
persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The upper level ridge over the eastern Bering will persist through
the weekend with a cold upper level trough stretching from
northern Alaska into Southcentral Alaska. This flow pattern will
put Southwest Alaska under northwesterly flow aloft with the
surface winds out of the north to northeast bringing continued
cool, dry and generally sunny weather.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
A gale force frontal system approaching from the south will reach
the western and central Aleutians overnight tonight, bringing
gusty winds and rain to the area. The front will lift into the
southern Bering Friday and Friday night. Several additional
frontal waves spinning around the parent low south of the
Aleutians will rotate north across the Aleutians over the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The ridging over the Bering Sea continues through Saturday before
an upstream North Pacific low pressure system pushes the ridge
into the Gulf of Alaska by Monday. Meanwhile, an upper level
closed low will be positioned over the Anchorage Bowl with an
associated trough extending into the Gulf from Saturday through
Tuesday, before merging with several weak North Pacific Lows.
While the next major storm force low tracks towards the Eastern
Aleutians by Thursday morning, with an associated weather front
entering the Gulf. This brings a pattern change with the offshore
flow over the Southcentral region diminishing, and shifting to
onshore southerly flow. There is uncertainty with timing of how
long the arctic trough stalls over the Southcentral region. The
GFS model is showing a faster solution, and the ECMWF was slower
with this synoptic feature. Meanwhile, by Thursday the jet stream
transitions to a southwesterly flow just south of the Eastern
Aleutians extending eastward into the lower southeastern Gulf.
This enhances storm tracks from the North Pacific area into the
Eastern Aleutians/Gulf region. The forecast confidence is low as
we head into midweek and beyond due to the uncertainty with the
timing/strength with the upcoming low pressure systems as they
track towards the Southwest/Southcentral regions.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray 121 139 185.
Gale warning 170 172 173 174 175 176 177 178

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SEB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PEPE
LONG TERM...PD