Small Craft Advisory 20, NWS Anchorage, AK

559 
FZAK52 PAFC 061259
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
359 AM AKST FRI JAN 6 2017

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-070130-
359 AM AKST FRI JAN 6 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...BOGOSLOF VOLCANO 53
NM WEST OF DUTCH HARBOR REMAINS ACTIVE. A FRONT OVER THE WESTERN
BERING PERSISTS THROUGH SAT NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN
BERING GRADUALLY WEAKENS THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-070130-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
359 AM AKST FRI JAN 6 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ155-070130-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
359 AM AKST FRI JAN 6 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT EXCEPT N 25 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E.
SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT EXCEPT NE 20 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN
ISLANDS E. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ160-070130-
BRISTOL BAY-
359 AM AKST FRI JAN 6 2017

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ165-070130-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
359 AM AKST FRI JAN 6 2017

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ170-070130-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
359 AM AKST FRI JAN 6 2017

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ171-070130-
UNALASKA BAY-
359 AM AKST FRI JAN 6 2017

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-070130-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
359 AM AKST FRI JAN 6 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ173-070130-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
359 AM AKST FRI JAN 6 2017

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ174-070130-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
359 AM AKST FRI JAN 6 2017

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ175-070130-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
359 AM AKST FRI JAN 6 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ176-070130-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
359 AM AKST FRI JAN 6 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT BUILDING TO 23 FT 
IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 29 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 30 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ177-070130-
ADAK TO KISKA-
359 AM AKST FRI JAN 6 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT BERING SIDE...29 FT 
PACIFIC SIDE. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. BERING SIDE...SEAS 19 FT. PACIFIC
SIDE...SEAS 23 FT BUILDING TO 29 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 28 FT BERING SIDE...35 FT PACIFIC
SIDE. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 27 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ178-070130-
KISKA TO ATTU-
359 AM AKST FRI JAN 6 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 45 KT. BERING SIDE...SEAS 26 FT. PACIFIC 
SIDE...SEAS 34 FT SUBSIDING TO 27 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ179-070130-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
359 AM AKST FRI JAN 6 2017

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ180-070130-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
359 AM AKST FRI JAN 6 2017

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FREEZING FOG.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ181-070130-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
359 AM AKST FRI JAN 6 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. PATCHY FREEZING FOG.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. PATCHY 
FREEZING FOG.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. PATCHY 
FREEZING FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ185-070130-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
359 AM AKST FRI JAN 6 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...S 30 KT 
W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND... SE 30 KT 
W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
600 AM AKST Thu Jan 5 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The pattern is starting to take shape for a fairly strong wind
event. The closed, vertically-stacked high that has been parked
over the Gulf of AK is retrograding and joining into another high
that is building over the Bering Sea. As it shifts off, it has
allowed one weak piece of energy to move through South Central.
This energy brought a slight increase in outflow winds through
places like Whittier, Valdez, and Seward. This will be a sign of
things to come. As the high strengthens in the Bering, the upper
level ridge will continue to amplify into the Arctic. This will
open the door for more energy and jet support (130kts at 300mb) to
move from north to south across the AK Range and through much of
South Central. But before the winds begin in earnest, we have one
more morning of fog and low stratus. From Bethel through Anchorage
and all the way over to the Copper River Basin, the inversions
remain strong enough to create another round of low ceilings and
visibilities. This should most certainly be the last morning of
these conditions around South Central where the winds will
scour/mix things out.

Way out over the Western Aleutians is the lone true surface low in
our area. It is trying to make its way up the western periphery of
the ridge. It will serve to keep a tight gradient and some gale-
force winds blowing out there.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are in stellar agreement for the first 40 hours or so. This
lends itself to high forecast confidence. Forecasters elected to
lean on high resolution models and manual edits to try to best
capture the details of the fog/stratus and the upcoming winds. The
lone synoptic item of note is the low that moves into the Western
Aleutians late Fri-early Sat. The Canadian Global is the fast
outlier by nearly 24 hours. The EC has starting to speed things up
from run to run, whereas the American models have been the most
consistent. Regardless, this feature will only bring another round
of gale-force winds and rain to the far Western Aleutians. It will
also serve to reinforce the ridge over the Bering by pumping up
more mid-level warm air.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Fog continues to linger this morning but should burn off by
late morning as winds increase. Northerly winds will become gusty
this afternoon but there is some uncertainty in exactly how strong
winds will become.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The forecast is on track for a widespread wind event across
Southcentral Alaska, peaking in most areas tonight through Friday.
Canceled the High Wind Watch for Western Prince William Sound
where there is an initial surge of cold air advection, but then
nothing to help mix higher winds from jet aloft down to the surface.
Forcing looks much more favorable for Eastern Prince William Sound
as deep arctic air piles up tonight in the Copper River Basin
leading to very tight pressure gradients. There will also be a
descending tropopause on the poleward side of the upper jet
leading to high static stability and favorable conditions for
mountain waves. Made some minor adjustments to timing of High
Wind Warnings for these areas, but peak of event is still on track
for late tonight through Friday with ideal flow direction, maximum
pressure gradients and lowest tropopause heights.

Strengthened winds across most of the region compared to previous
forecast, most notably with northerly low level jets setting up
from Susitna Valley to Cook Inlet and across the Copper River
Basin. With the deep cold air in the Copper Basin, conditions will
also become favorable for strong Matanuska Valley winds beginning
tonight.

Temperatures will likely spike upward as wind first arrives and
mixes out existing surface based inversions. However, they will
then begin a steady fall. The combination of wind and cold temps
will lead to widespread sub-zero wind chills. Winds will die
down most places Friday night through Saturday, though pressure
gradients will remain favorable for gap winds to continue along
Prince William Sound and the North Gulf Coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
High pressure along with drier and cooler northerly flow will
build over the southwest mainland today, bringing clearing skies
and the potential for some fog or low stratus to develop. With
high pressure persisting over the area into Friday, any areas
that do develop fog/stratus will likely see it continue through
much of the day, as there will be little in the way of mixing due
to winds or daytime heating to bring a significant improvement.
Other than fog and stratus concerns over the next 2 days, the
weather is expected to remain quiet as temperatures begin to
fall through Saturday, with clear skies and developing offshore
flow.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
A broad ridge of high pressure will continue to develop over much
of the central-eastern Bering sea, forcing most of the active
weather west of the Pribilof Islands. Over the Western Aleutians,
a front associated with a low tracking northwards toward Kamchatka
will bring gale force southerly winds from Adak westward into
Friday morning. This will be the beginning of nearly persistent
gale to possibly storm force winds to the western Aleutians.
Further to the east, the weather will be much quieter as most of
the area will see generally benign conditions with the biggest
concern being a chance of fog/stratus development under the ridge.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The main feature will continue to be the dominant upper level
high that extends from the North Pacific, well past the Arctic
Circle. This high pressure will slowly work its way further north
and east, eventually moving over western mainland Alaska by Sunday
night. Strong outflow winds will continue across Southcentral
Alaska through the weekend. The upper level system over the
eastern Gulf will be exiting the area to the southeast overnight
Friday. In addition, the cold air that is situated over
Southcentral will begin to slide into the Yukon Territory through
the weekend. This combination will allow for the gradient to relax
and winds to weaken, although offshore flow will continue as
surface high pressure remains in the Copper River Basin.

The upper level high pushes further north and east by the start
of the new week, with dry conditions extending to much of the
state with the exception of the western Aleutians. Multiple lows
are forecast to move through the western Aleutians through at
least Tuesday.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High Wind Warning 131 135.
MARINE...Storm Warning 121 127 128.
 Gale Warning 119 120 125 126 130 131 132 138 139 140 150 175 176
177 178 310 351 352 411 413.
 Heavy Freezing Spray 140.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DEK/TP
LONG TERM...LIW