Gale Warning 38, NWS Anchorage, AK

460 
FZAK51 PAFC 070019
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
319 PM AKST FRI JAN 6 2017

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-071345-
319 PM AKST FRI JAN 6 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A WEAK TROUGH ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST AND SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA
LINGERS THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF
OF ALASKA WEAKENS THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-071345-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
319 PM AKST FRI JAN 6 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
STRONGER GUSTS TO 80 KT OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER DELTA. SEAS 11
FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
STRONGER GUSTS 65 KT OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER DELTA. SEAS 9 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. STRONGER GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF THE
COPPER RIVER DELTA. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ120-071345-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
319 PM AKST FRI JAN 6 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ121-071345-
RESURRECTION BAY-
319 PM AKST FRI JAN 6 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ125-071345-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
319 PM AKST FRI JAN 6 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4
FT SUBSIDING. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-071345-
PORT VALDEZ-
319 PM AKST FRI JAN 6 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. STRONGER GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ127-071345-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
319 PM AKST FRI JAN 6 2017

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 50 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-071345-
VALDEZ ARM-
319 PM AKST FRI JAN 6 2017

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ129-071345-
PASSAGE CANAL-
319 PM AKST FRI JAN 6 2017

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. STRONGER GUSTS 35 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS
3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-071345-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
319 PM AKST FRI JAN 6 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...INCREASING TO N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ131-071345-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
319 PM AKST FRI JAN 6 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ132-071345-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
319 PM AKST FRI JAN 6 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ136-071345-
CHINIAK BAY-
319 PM AKST FRI JAN 6 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-071345-
MARMOT BAY-
319 PM AKST FRI JAN 6 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ138-071345-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
319 PM AKST FRI JAN 6 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7
FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ139-071345-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
319 PM AKST FRI JAN 6 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ140-071345-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
319 PM AKST FRI JAN 6 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT SUBSIDING
TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE
WATERS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-071345-
KACHEMAK BAY-
319 PM AKST FRI JAN 6 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
355 PM AKST Thu Jan 5 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The upper ridge extending from the NE Pacific to over eastern
Russia is showing signs of amplification. A fairly strong NW jet
around 80 kts was evident on the forward side of the ridge as
recorded on the Anchorage sounding. Surface inversions weakened
over much of Southcentral as winds increased in the lower boundary
layer and there was cooling aloft. Some stratus and flurries were
evident under the ridge along coastal Southwest Alaska.
Northwesterly Winds continued fairly gusty across the northern and
western Gulf. Brisk outflow/gap winds continue across the eastern
Kenai Pen and North Gulf Coast. Gusty southeast winds were
observed from the Eastern Aleutians/Pribilof Islands to the
western Bering Sea/west Aleutians.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are in great agreement across Southcentral through the
short term. So only minor adjustments will be made to the official
grids on this forecast issuance. Out west, except for the
Canadian global, models are in very good agreement. The Canadian
global continues as the fast outlier with a gale force low moving
north toward the western Bering Sea.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions are expected. North winds should increase
this evening, then diminish again Friday afternoon.

&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The major wind event for portions of the Southcentral region is
course as we head into the weekend. The models have been
projecting a northwesterly jet streak developing over the Seward
Peninsula, and extending to above the Anchorage Bowl this
evening. All the dynamics are setting up with colder temperatures
ushering into the region as the upper level trough moves through
as we head into the evening tonight. The 850 mb temperatures start
in the -15C range in the Copper River Basin, and with the upstream
cold air advection filtering into the area look for temperatures
in the -20C to -25C heading into Friday. As the jet stream
transitions to a northerly to northeasterly orientation, this will
combine with the colder temperatures and lowering of the
tropopause to produce very favorable conditions for very high
winds. Therefore, the High Wind Warnings remain in effect for the
Valdez, Thompson Pass, and the Copper River Delta late tonight
through early Saturday morning. Look for wind chills ranging in
the -5F to -15F temperature range through the Southcentral region,
but the coldest wind chills will range from -15F to -25F in the
Copper River Basin with this high wind event.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
High pressure building over the southwest mainland will bring
cooler and drier conditions to much of the area into this weekend.
As this ridge builds tonight, increasing offshore flow around the
Kuskokwim Delta will scour out any patchy fog and stratus
currently in the area. The pressure gradient will tighten even
further on Friday as a wave pushes through the gulf, bringing
gusty northerly winds to the Kuskokwim Valley and Bristol Bay that
will continue into the overnight hours. Cold air streaming into
the area at the same time will bring wind chills as low as 25
below into the Kuskokwim Valley over night on Friday, especially
to the usual cold areas in the valley. This winds will then
diminish this weekend as high pressure firmly sets up over the
region, leading to clear and cold conditions through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...
Little has changed in the overall forecast throughout the Bering
into this weekend as a strong blocking ridge sets up over the
Central-Eastern Bering. This will cause a semi-permanent trough
of low pressure to from near the Western Aleutians, bringing
persistent southerly gale force winds and rain mainly from Adak
westward. As a result, there is very good confidence that seas
will also rise to above 30 ft along the Pacific coast of the
western Aleutians. To the east, high pressure will bring benign
weather trough the weekend, with winds generally below small craft
and little in the way of precipitation chances.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
Beginning the extended forecast period Saturday evening, a rather
impressive 2.5 standard deviation 500 hpa blocking high centered
over Southwest Alaska will be dominating the entire forecast
region. Besides weakening fronts over the Western and Central
Bering Sea, dominant high pressure over the mainland will keep dry
and clear weather in place through the middle of next week.
Temperatures aloft will be warming (in the mountains), but
temperatures in lower elevations will remain at or slightly below
normal as strong inversions will remain in place. Fog development
may become a local threat inland Sunday and beyond, but this ridge
pattern will not be as conducive to fog as recent patterns where
the mainland was along the western periphery of the ridge axis.
Both global deterministic and ensemble models are hinting at a
retrogression of the ridge and more northerly flow over southern
Alaska late midweek, bringing in arctic air into the region along
with more offshore flow.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High Wind Warning 131 135.
MARINE...Storm Warning 121 127 128.
 Gale Warning 119 120 125 126 129 130 131 132 136 137 138 139 140
150 175 176 177 178.
 Heavy Frz Spray 121 126 127 128 129 139 140 141.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...PD
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DEK
LONG TERM...JA