Small Craft Advisory 111, NWS Anchorage, AK

374 
FZAK51 PAFC 041202
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
302 AM AKST SAT FEB 4 2017

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-050100-
302 AM AKST SAT FEB 4 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE GULF THROUGH
MON MORNING.

$$

PKZ119-050100-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
302 AM AKST SAT FEB 4 2017

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ120-050100-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
302 AM AKST SAT FEB 4 2017

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ121-050100-
RESURRECTION BAY-
302 AM AKST SAT FEB 4 2017

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ125-050100-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
302 AM AKST SAT FEB 4 2017

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-050100-
PORT VALDEZ-
302 AM AKST SAT FEB 4 2017

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT AND SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ127-050100-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
302 AM AKST SAT FEB 4 2017

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-050100-
VALDEZ ARM-
302 AM AKST SAT FEB 4 2017

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-050100-
PASSAGE CANAL-
302 AM AKST SAT FEB 4 2017

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-050100-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
302 AM AKST SAT FEB 4 2017

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ131-050100-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
302 AM AKST SAT FEB 4 2017

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT AND SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ132-050100-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
302 AM AKST SAT FEB 4 2017

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ136-050100-
CHINIAK BAY-
302 AM AKST SAT FEB 4 2017

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT.
.TONIGHT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-050100-
MARMOT BAY-
302 AM AKST SAT FEB 4 2017

.TODAY...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ138-050100-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
302 AM AKST SAT FEB 4 2017

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ139-050100-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
302 AM AKST SAT FEB 4 2017

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ140-050100-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
302 AM AKST SAT FEB 4 2017

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. PATCHY
FREEZING FOG.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. PATCHY
FREEZING FOG.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. PATCHY
FREEZING FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT.
.MON...N WIND 10 KT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT.

$$

PKZ141-050100-
KACHEMAK BAY-
302 AM AKST SAT FEB 4 2017

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS
2 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
344 PM AKST Fri Feb 3 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
Little has changed in the upper level as a broad blocking ridge
continues over the mainland with an upper level low holding near
the far western Aleutians. Areas to fog were evident from the
Matanuska Valley, across the Anchorage Bowl, to the northern Kenai
Peninsula through the afternoon hours. Generally fair skies were
observed elsewhere across the mainland. Gusty gap winds were
observed across the eastern Kenai Peninsula to across the northern
Gulf. A surface frontal trough over the western Aleutians produced
gale force southerly winds along with clouds and rain as far east
as Adak.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models in the short term were in overall excellent agreement. Out
west, differences in timing and positioning of lows skirting the
western Aleutians are evident. However, there was little
difference in the sensible weather. The higher resolution NAM was
used in the east with the GFS used predominately in the west.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...IFR/LIFR conditions will occasionally improve this
afternoon and evening. The lowest conditions will continue to be
over north and west Anchorage and along Knik arm. The IFR/LIFR
conditions will once again become more persistent and widespread
overnight before breaking up again Saturday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A warm upper level ridge is firmly entrenched over the area, with
a strong inversion layer and weak low level flow keeping areas of
fog in the forecast along the Cook Inlet region. The Copper River
Basin also could see some fog at lower levels, but this is less
likely due to drier conditions over the area. This pattern will
persist through the weekend without much change. On the eastern
periphery of the upper level high, gusty gap winds are expected to
continue over the Valdez/Thompson Pass area and the Copper River
Delta into tonight before diminishing by Saturday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2...Fri and Sat)...
A strong blocking high pressure aloft will keep weather quiet
across the region through Sunday evening. Weak offshore flow has
resulted in a rather cold and dry air mass, so fog looks to be a
non-threat. Expect the coldest temperatures to be in low lying
valleys where strong inversions will develop each night.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2...Fri and
Sat)...
A gale force front over the Western Bering/Aleutians will weaken
before another North pacific low moves north and replaces it. Gale
force east-southeast winds will move as far east as the Central
Bering Sea. This low will move west of Shemya Sunday with the
front stalling west of the Pribilof Islands.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
Sun night through Mon high pressure will keep areas south and
east of the Alaska and Aleutian ranges clear and dry. A broad area
of weak low pressure over the northern Gulf will induce some winds
in channeled areas, as well as possibly inducing a few showers
over the Gulf. A closed off upper level low will move into western
AK and bring only clouds to the area, while a gale force front
across the western Aleutians and Bering slowly weakens.

For the rest of the workweek a cold front moves rapidly south
across the mainland by Wed, and then the accompanying surface low
stalls over the northern Gulf. In addition to colder temperatures
some snow shower activity will develop with this system. Over the
Bering and Aleutians high pressure will build over the region and
shunt the decaying front and subsequent North Pacific storms
south of the region. This will result in cooler conditions with
only a few snow showers in northerly flow through the week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning 170 172 173 174 175 176 177 178.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...TP
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JA
LONG TERM...DS