Gale Warning 131, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Feb 3, 2017, 3:03 PM AKST (00:03 UTC)

Expired

Feb 4, 2017, 4:00 AM AKST

In force

13 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

331 
FZAK52 PAFC 040003
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
303 PM AKST FRI FEB 3 2017

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-041300-
303 PM AKST FRI FEB 3 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
BOGOSLOF VOLCANO AT 54N 168W REMAINS ACTIVE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN BERING THROUGH SUN MORNING. A FRONT WILL
PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS THROUGH SUN AS A
976 MB LOW MOVES TO 210 NM SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA SUN AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-041300-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
303 PM AKST FRI FEB 3 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ155-041300-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
303 PM AKST FRI FEB 3 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT EXCEPT E 15 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS
E. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT EXCEPT E 15 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E.
SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN
ISLANDS E. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ160-041300-
BRISTOL BAY-
303 PM AKST FRI FEB 3 2017

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 1 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ165-041300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
303 PM AKST FRI FEB 3 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT EXCEPT E 15 KT FROM PORT MOLLER E. 
SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT EXCEPT E 15 KT FROM PORT MOLLER E. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ170-041300-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
303 PM AKST FRI FEB 3 2017

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ171-041300-
UNALASKA BAY-
303 PM AKST FRI FEB 3 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-041300-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
303 PM AKST FRI FEB 3 2017

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ173-041300-
NIKLOSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
303 PM AKST FRI FEB 3 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ174-041300-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
303 PM AKST FRI FEB 3 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ175-041300-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
303 PM AKST FRI FEB 3 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ176-041300-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
303 PM AKST FRI FEB 3 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ177-041300-
ADAK TO KISKA-
303 PM AKST FRI FEB 3 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ178-041300-
KISKA TO ATTU-
303 PM AKST FRI FEB 3 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 20 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.

$$

PKZ179-041300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
303 PM AKST FRI FEB 3 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ180-041300-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
303 PM AKST FRI FEB 3 2017

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
FREEZING SPRAY. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ181-041300-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
303 PM AKST FRI FEB 3 2017

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT.

$$

PKZ185-041300-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
303 PM AKST FRI FEB 3 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...E 30 KT W
OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Feb 3, 4:45 AM AKST, 10 hours 18 minutes earlier.

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
445 AM AKST Fri Feb 3 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
Clear skies and generally quiet weather prevails across much of
the region this morning beneath a strong closed high centered over
northwest Alaska. Areas of fog have continued to develop over the
Cook Inlet region aided by lingering moisture and stagnant low
level flow, with locally dense fog present across the Anchorage
Bowl. Modest outflow winds are helping to keep fog out of
locations along the north gulf coast, while stronger offshore flow
and a drier air mass are also keeping the southwest mainland free
of any fog concerns this morning. A shortwave trough retrograding
along the western periphery of the ridge is bringing showery
conditions and gusty southeast winds to the eastern half of the
Bering, with a pair of fronts located over the western Bering. The
first of these fronts is currently decaying over the Central
Aleutians, while another stronger front bears down on the Western
Aleutians accompanied by a steady rain/snow mix.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models remain in excellent short term agreement as the high
latitude blocking pattern remains in place through the weekend.
Continued to primarily utilize a Hi-Res NAM based approach to
account for local wind effects. In the western domain, began to
introduce some GFS for the low approaching the Western Aleutians
Sunday morning, as it represents a middle ground approach at this
time.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Locally dense fog will linger over Upper Cook Inlet through
late this morning, keeping predominantly IFR to LIFR conditions
over the terminal. The fog is expected to begin to lift in the
18-20z time frame Friday morning, yielding prevailing VFR
conditions for the remainder of the day. Fog potential will
increase once again by late this evening as relatively stagnant
low level conditions remain favorable for fog development.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The warm upper level ridge is firmly entrenched over the area with
the inversion reaching to just about 5000 ft on the morning
sounding in Anchorage where the temperature at that level was 38
degrees. This strong and deep inversion layer is why there is fog
packed up against the Chugach and Kenai Mountains around the Cook
Inlet region. The Copper River Basin also could see some fog at
lower levels but this is less likely due to how dry it is there.
This pattern will persist the next few days without much change.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2...Fri and Sat)...
Vertically stacked high pressure will continue to keep most of the
area clear and slightly colder for the next couple of days. The
high is centered just east of the Seward Peninsula. This is
allowing for dry air to wrap around it and into the region. Fog is
not an issue anywhere this morning with the exception of some low
spots in the Lower Kuskokwim Valley. This flow will also allow for
temperatures to cool ever-so-slightly from day to day as colder
air is reinforced. However, at ridge and mountain-top,
temperatures will actually be quite warm the next few days. This
is because the subsidence under the high pressure aloft will cause some
compressional warming and strengthening inversions. This could
also result in another round of stratus for the Kuskokwim Valley
into Sat morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2...Fri and
Sat)...
The most active weather in the entire domain will remain over this
region to start the weekend. An upper level disturbance will
continue to keep some rain and snow showers falling over the
Pribilofs through early this morning before it moves over into
eastern Russia. Over the central Aleutians, a remnant front will
continue to fall apart and then is absorbed by a new front over
the Western Aleutians. This front is already bringing some gusts
in the 55 mph range to Shemya. It is also helping to usher in
some more steady precipitation in the form of rain or very wet
snow. This front will move quickly through the western Bering late
Fri night. A new low from the North Pacific will take its place by
early Sat. This mid-970mb surface low looks like it will stay
south of the islands. However, models are struggling with the
exact timing and track. At this point it looks like it will bring
a fairly broad swath of gale-force east to southeast winds across
much of the chain with the possibility of some storm-force gusts
near Atka by Sat afternoon. Steady rain will accompany this system
as more warm air moves north.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

Conditions through Sun will be controlled by High pressure over
mainland AK, the eastern Bering, and the Gulf of AK. A front will
be stalled against the western flank of the High. Warm advection
on southerly flow will bring rain and widespread gale force winds
to the western Aleutians and Bering. For mainland AK and the
eastern Aleutians no precipitation is expected, with normal
temperatures for early February.

Beginning on Mon an upper level low sweeps a trough across
western AK as the surface high spreads both east and west.
Although models are depicting this upper low to be deep, they
currently are showing the system to be dry, with only clouds
affecting the area west of the Alaska and Aleutian ranges. This
solution keeps mainland areas of the state cold and dry through
midweek and beyond. The western portion of the Bering and
Aleutians will remain under the diminishing influence of the
front, which becomes tilted northwest to southeast. By midweek a
low approaches the western Aleutians with a mix of rain and snow,
and gale force winds.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Dense Fog Advisory 101 121
MARINE...Gale Warning 172 173 174 175 176 177 178

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MO
LONG TERM...DS

Gale Warnings in Alaska, 2017Every gale warning in 2017

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.