Small Craft Advisory 1004, NWS Anchorage, AK

794 
FZAK52 PAFC 310018
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
318 PM AKST Sat Dec 30 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-311330-
318 PM AKST Sat Dec 30 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 980 mb low 130 nm west of Dutch Harbor will move to 50 nm
southwest of St. Paul at 971 mb Sun morning, then it will weaken 
near 170 nm northeast of Adak Mon afternoon. A North Pacific low 
will move to 220 nm southeast of Dutch Harbor at 955 mb Mon 
morning then it will move to 55 nm southeast of Sand Point at 959
mb Mon afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-311330-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
318 PM AKST Sat Dec 30 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt becoming E 40 kt after midnight. 
Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 35 ft.
.TUE...S wind 35 kt. Seas 29 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ155-311330-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
318 PM AKST Sat Dec 30 2017

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt becoming E 40 kt after midnight. 
Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.MON...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ160-311330-
Bristol Bay-
318 PM AKST Sat Dec 30 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...E wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ165-311330-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
318 PM AKST Sat Dec 30 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ170-311330-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
318 PM AKST Sat Dec 30 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 7 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ171-311330-
Unalaska Bay-
318 PM AKST Sat Dec 30 2017

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-311330-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
318 PM AKST Sat Dec 30 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming N after midnight. Seas 13 ft.
Rain.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ173-311330-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
318 PM AKST Sat Dec 30 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ174-311330-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
318 PM AKST Sat Dec 30 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ175-311330-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
318 PM AKST Sat Dec 30 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ176-311330-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
318 PM AKST Sat Dec 30 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ177-311330-
Adak to Kiska-
318 PM AKST Sat Dec 30 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Snow showers.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ178-311330-
Kiska to Attu-
318 PM AKST Sat Dec 30 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. Snow showers.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Freezing spray. 
Snow showers.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ179-311330-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
318 PM AKST Sat Dec 30 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt becoming E 25 kt after midnight. 
Seas 16 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ180-311330-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
318 PM AKST Sat Dec 30 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Snow with rain showers.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Snow.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...E wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ181-311330-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
318 PM AKST Sat Dec 30 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft. Heavy freezing spray. Snow.
.SUN...E wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ185-311330-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
318 PM AKST Sat Dec 30 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.SUN...E of Saint Matthew Island, NE wind 40 kt becoming E 30 kt in 
the afternoon. W of Saint Matthew Island, NE wind 45 kt. Seas 23 ft. 
Freezing spray. Snow.
.SUN NIGHT...E of Saint Matthew Island, E wind 30 kt diminishing to 
20 kt after midnight. W of Saint Matthew Island, NE wind 40 kt. Seas 
21 ft. Snow.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

299 
FZAK52 PAFC 311256
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
356 AM AKST Sun Dec 31 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-010145-
356 AM AKST Sun Dec 31 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 977 mb low over the Alaska Peninsula moves over Hooper Bay and 
dissipates this afternoon. A 976 mb low 170 nm northwest of Dutch 
Harbor moves to 230 nm northeast of Shemya at 982 mb Mon night. A 
956 mb low 280 nm south of Cold Bay tonight moves to 70 nm north of 
Port Heiden at 967 mb Mon night.

$$

PKZ150-010145-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
356 AM AKST Sun Dec 31 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
17 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt becoming E 35 kt after midnight. Seas
15 ft.
.MON...E wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 31 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ155-010145-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
356 AM AKST Sun Dec 31 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt becoming E 40 kt after midnight. Seas
17 ft. Rain.
.MON...NE wind 40 kt becoming N 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 19
ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ160-010145-
Bristol Bay-
356 AM AKST Sun Dec 31 2017

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt in the morning. Seas 6 ft. 
Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...E wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ165-010145-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
356 AM AKST Sun Dec 31 2017

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 15 in the morning increasing to 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ170-010145-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
356 AM AKST Sun Dec 31 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 7 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ171-010145-
Unalaska Bay-
356 AM AKST Sun Dec 31 2017

.TODAY...SE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-010145-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
356 AM AKST Sun Dec 31 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming N 25 kt after midnight. Seas
13 ft. Rain.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft.

$$

PKZ173-010145-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
356 AM AKST Sun Dec 31 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ174-010145-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
356 AM AKST Sun Dec 31 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ175-010145-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
356 AM AKST Sun Dec 31 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ176-010145-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
356 AM AKST Sun Dec 31 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ177-010145-
Adak to Kiska-
356 AM AKST Sun Dec 31 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Snow showers.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ178-010145-
Kiska to Attu-
356 AM AKST Sun Dec 31 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Freezing spray. Snow
showers.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ179-010145-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
356 AM AKST Sun Dec 31 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ180-010145-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
356 AM AKST Sun Dec 31 2017

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain...except snow N of Cape 
Newenham. Freezing spray in the morning N of Cape Newenham.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...E wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ181-010145-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
356 AM AKST Sun Dec 31 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Heavy freezing spray in the
morning. Snow mixing with rain in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ185-010145-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
356 AM AKST Sun Dec 31 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E of Saint Matthew Island, NE wind 40 kt becoming E 30 kt
in the afternoon. W of Saint Matthew Island, NE wind 45 kt. Seas
23 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...NE 40 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 23 ft. Snow showers.
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
508 PM AKST Fri Dec 29 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
There is a vertically stacked low centered just south of the
central Aleutians. There is a leading front that stretches from
the south central Bering Sea southeastward across the eastern
Aleutians and western Alaska Peninsula into the northeast
Pacific. There is a "back door" cold front over the western
Aleutians and the western portion of the central Aleutians. There
is an upper level ridge over the western Bering, with
northeasterly flow at the surface. Weak upper level high pressure
is over the southern mainland. Some offshore flow exists at the
surface, but plenty of low and mid level clouds are over the area.
The upper low over northwest Alaska is retreating northward.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The numerical models are in decent agreement through Sunday
afternoon. There are still some differences in how they handle
various surface lows from the Alaska Peninsula west through the
Aleutians and southern Bering, but less than has been the case the
last few days. This also impacts the speed of a front moving
across the Gulf on Sunday. Forecast confidence is near normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist. Wind shear
will develop Saturday afternoon as southeast winds aloft increase
with an approaching weather system.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Generally cloudy and benign conditions will remain into Saturday
as most of the area remains under the influence of a weak surface
high. One exception to this will be over Northern Cook Inlet where
a weak shortwave and convergence boundary will bring some light
snowfall to the Western Kenai coast, generally from Anchor Point
northward. This may even bring a few flurries on its very eastern
edge into the Anchorage Bowl this evening.

The much more impactful weather will then spread into the Gulf
beginning Saturday with widespread gale force winds and rain mixed
with snow. The models continue to struggle with the placement or
even existence of a weak triple point low near Kodiak Island from
this system that is hampering the overall forecast confidence,
however there remains good agreement that this system will bring
widespread snow to the Gulf Coast and in particular the Eastern
Kenai that will see persistent onshore flow through Sunday with
temperatures generally cool enough to support snow. This front
however will not have enough of a moisture source to produce
warning level accumulations to that area, but it will be slow
moving enough to bring a foot or more of snowfall to the Eastern
Kenai Peninsula through Sunday, especially through the Turnagain
Pass area that could receive even more. On the lee side of the
Chugach (Western Kenai northward to Anchorage/Matanuska Valley)
will remain generally dry from this event due to strong cross
barrier flow and downsloping, with gusty winds through Turnagain
Arm and the Matanuska Valley. For the Anchorage bowl, with strong
flow down Cook Inlet there is very good confidence that these the
Turnagain winds will not reach into town or the hillside, and
instead will likely see breezy northerly winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A trough across the Aleutians pushes a front across the Southwest
on Saturday spreading precipitation south to north through Sunday.
The main challenges with this system are precipitation types and
gusty winds. The light northeasterly flow pattern shifts east to
Southeast across Bristol Bay and the Kuskokwim Valley as the
surface low moves the front north tonight. Winds across the
Kuskokwim Delta are expected to keep a northeasterly direction
with the higher gusts along the coast which may cause visibility
reductions in snow as the front passes through. Offshore flow
keeps a shallow surface cold pool over much of the region while a
strong low level southeasterly jet surges warm subtropical air
over the region through Saturday. Snow will develop along the
front and change over to rain for much of Bristol Bay. The
highest precipitation amounts will be confined to east facing
slopes in this flow pattern. The next front is expected to move up
from the North Pacific Sunday into Monday bringing another round
of strong winds and precipitation along another warm core system.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

An unsettled weather pattern continues through early next week as
a broad trough sets up over the Bering and pinwheels several low
pressure systems about its core. Frequent wind direction changes
are expected along with numerous rain and snow showers. Gale force
marine winds will be common in this pattern, although winds taper
down along the central waters as the low centers near the
Pribilof Islands on Sunday. Cold air wraps along the Western
Bering on the backside of low bringing numerous snow showers along
upper level disturbances rotating through the flow.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

The long term forecast period begins with New Year's Eve, which
will see a low over the Aleutians and a front draped from
Southwest AK across the Kenai Peninsula and into the Gulf.
Although this isn't an unusually strong system, it does bring warm
air to the state, which will start our transition to a more
active pattern. The warming temperatures aloft should bring mixed
precip to Southwest AK, changing over to rain in the lee of the
mountains. For Southcentral, this system looks like it will be
primarily snow and possibly some quite heavy snow over the
mountains on the Kenai Peninsula. Precipitation will remain mostly
in the mountains, so not looking for a snow event for most
communities along the road system.

The next system approaches on a very similar track beginning
Tuesday, bringing stronger winds and warmer air. Precipitation
will most likely fall as rain for most of the forecast area,
including Southwest AK. In Southcentral, the current track and
strength of this system has the possibility to bring a Chinook
wind event, which would enhance our already warm temperatures for
an early "January thaw". The first chance for a return to cooler
temperatures begins on Wednesday, when the low in the Gulf slides
northward, bringing cooler temperatures on the west side
(backside) of the low. However, with recent model performance,
confidence in the 7-day forecast is low.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale 119 120 132 136-140 150 155 160 165 170 172 173 175
         177-181 185.
         Storm 130 131.
         Heavy Freezing Spray 180 181.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DEK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KH
LONG TERM...LF