Gale Warning 725, NWS Anchorage, AK

716 
FZAK52 PAFC 120009
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
309 PM AKST Mon Dec 11 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-121315-
309 PM AKST Mon Dec 11 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 969 mb low in the western Gulf will move to 60 nm southeast of
Sand Point at 980 mb Tue morning then dissipate as it moves inland 
over Bristol Bay Tue night. A 985 mb North Pacific low will move 
to 170 nm south of Kodiak City Wed morning then move inland over 
Bristol Bay at 982 mb Wed evening. A front will move over the 
western Bering Tue night then move into the central Bering Wed 
night. 

$$

PKZ150-121315-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
309 PM AKST Mon Dec 11 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ155-121315-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
309 PM AKST Mon Dec 11 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt except S 15 kt from the Shumagin
Islands E. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ160-121315-
Bristol Bay-
309 PM AKST Mon Dec 11 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 4 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ165-121315-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
309 PM AKST Mon Dec 11 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. From Port Moller E, NE wind 20 kt in the
morning becoming variable 10 kt. Seas 13 ft except 6 ft from Port
Moller E.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt except NW 15 kt from Port Moller E.
Seas 12 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ170-121315-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
309 PM AKST Mon Dec 11 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain showers and snow
showers.
.TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ171-121315-
Unalaska Bay-
309 PM AKST Mon Dec 11 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-121315-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
309 PM AKST Mon Dec 11 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ173-121315-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
309 PM AKST Mon Dec 11 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft. Snow showers.
.TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ174-121315-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
309 PM AKST Mon Dec 11 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt becoming N 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 13 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft.

$$

PKZ175-121315-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
309 PM AKST Mon Dec 11 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.TUE...N wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 18 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt becoming SE after midnight. Seas 12 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ176-121315-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
309 PM AKST Mon Dec 11 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt becoming SE after midnight. Seas 10 ft.
Snow showers.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ177-121315-
Adak to Kiska-
309 PM AKST Mon Dec 11 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Snow showers.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ178-121315-
Kiska to Attu-
309 PM AKST Mon Dec 11 2017

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Snow showers.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ179-121315-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
309 PM AKST Mon Dec 11 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. Snow showers.
.TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ180-121315-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
309 PM AKST Mon Dec 11 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray north of Cape
Newenham. Snow showers.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray north of Cape
Newenham. Snow.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray north of Cape
Newenham.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ181-121315-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
309 PM AKST Mon Dec 11 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ185-121315-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
309 PM AKST Mon Dec 11 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

549 
FZAK52 PAFC 121247
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
347 AM AKST Tue Dec 12 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-130130-
347 AM AKST Tue Dec 12 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 978 mb low 100 nm south of Chignik will move inland over Bristol 
Bay and dissipate by Tue night. A 988 mb North Pacific low will move 
over Port Heiden at 989 mb by Wed morning then will move inland and 
dissipate by Wed evening. A front in the western Bering will move 
into the central Bering by Thu morning. 

$$

PKZ150-130130-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
347 AM AKST Tue Dec 12 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 
21 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt becoming S 15 kt after midnight. Seas 14 
ft. Rain.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...S wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ155-130130-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
347 AM AKST Tue Dec 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt except S 20 kt from the Shumagin Islands E. 
Seas 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt except SE 15 kt from the Shumagin Islands
E. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...S wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ160-130130-
Bristol Bay-
347 AM AKST Tue Dec 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt becoming SW. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ165-130130-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
347 AM AKST Tue Dec 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt. From Port Moller E, NE wind 20 kt in the
morning becoming variable 10 kt. Seas 13 ft except 6 ft from Port
Moller E.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt except NW 15 kt from Port Moller E. Seas 13
ft except 7 ft from Port Moller E.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt except W 15 kt from Port Moller E. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ170-130130-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
347 AM AKST Tue Dec 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 
15 ft subsiding to 11 ft after midnight.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11 
ft subsiding to 7 ft in the afternoon.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ171-130130-
Unalaska Bay-
347 AM AKST Tue Dec 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt becoming variable less than 10 kt in the 
afternoon. Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ172-130130-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
347 AM AKST Tue Dec 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 
ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...S wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.FRI...W wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ173-130130-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
347 AM AKST Tue Dec 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
14 ft subsiding to 9 ft after midnight.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SE 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ174-130130-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
347 AM AKST Tue Dec 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
14 ft subsiding to 8 ft after midnight..
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt becoming S 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ175-130130-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
347 AM AKST Tue Dec 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 18
ft subsiding to 13 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt becoming SE after midnight. Seas 12 ft
subsiding to 9 ft after midnight.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Snow showers.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ176-130130-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
347 AM AKST Tue Dec 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 14
ft subsiding to 10 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt becoming SE after midnight. Seas 10 ft
subsiding to 7 ft after midnight.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ177-130130-
Adak to Kiska-
347 AM AKST Tue Dec 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt becoming SE. Seas 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Snow.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ178-130130-
Kiska to Attu-
347 AM AKST Tue Dec 12 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind increasing to 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Widespread snow 
showers.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 
13 ft diminishing to 10 ft. Snow and rain showers.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ179-130130-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
347 AM AKST Tue Dec 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 
12 ft diminishing to 8 ft after midnight.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...E wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ180-130130-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
347 AM AKST Tue Dec 12 2017

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ181-130130-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
347 AM AKST Tue Dec 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ185-130130-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
347 AM AKST Tue Dec 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...E wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
412 PM AKST Sun Dec 10 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A stable long-wave pattern continues to dominate the Alaska
region, with a trough centered over the Aleutians/North Pacific
and a high amplitude ridge over the western U.S. extending
northwestward to the eastern Alaska mainland. Thus, the warm
and windy weather for the Gulf and Southcentral will continue.
Satellite imagery shows a deep low over the northeast Pacific
continuing to strengthen as it tracks northwestward toward Kodiak
Island. Conditions are rapidly deteriorating out ahead of the low
across the Gulf and Kodiak Island.

An upper trough tracking westward across Southwest Alaska is
weakening as building heights out ahead of the low overtake it.
Thus, expect precipitation to also follow suit and fall apart.

Out west, a stationary front is strung out along the Aleutians
and North Pacific between two low centers. The Bering Sea is
dominated by northerly flow on the east side of a blocking high
centered over the northwest Bering and eastern Russia.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are all in excellent agreement with handling of the
existing low, but quickly diverge with development of another low
over the north central Pacific and the exact track northward to
Southwest Alaska on Tuesday. Solutions are grouped in the same
general area, so forecast confidence is generally high. The main
forecast challenge will be details of the wind forecast as the
deep low affects Southcentral tonight through Monday. A secondary
challenge is precipitation type along the periphery of the low,
namely portions of interior Southcentral as well as Bristol Bay.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Based on the track of the deep low to Kodiak Island, down
Inlet flow will dominate late this afternoon and evening, which
should keep strong easterly flow above mountain-top. Thus, expect
a period of rain and lower ceilings to move into the terminal by
early this evening. Have stuck with low end VFR ceilings, but
there may some lower ceilings in the vicinity. As the low passes
west of PANC's longitude, pressure gradients will quickly increase
leading to opening of a downslope hole. Expect ceilings to rise
and rain to end. With a much stronger storm system passing to the
west on Monday, southeasterly winds will once again come into
Anchorage but will be even stronger than this morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
As the low south of the Gulf tracks toward Kodiak it will swing
its front over the north Gulf coast. As the front passes late this
evening it looks to bring warning level wind gusts to Cordova.
However, these winds should be short lived and diminish quickly
early Monday morning after the front passes.

Some of the stronger winds with the front will push through the
Prince William Sound area and through channeled terrain to
Portage Valley and Turnagain Arm. Winds along Portage Valley and
Turnagain Arm will also see warning level wind gusts late tonight.
Eastern areas around Turnagain Arm will first see strong winds
from the winds being funneled through the gaps. Then this will be
aided later in the night by the movement of the main low pressure
center as it tracks over southwest Alaska. This new position will
help create a strong pressure gradient and bring winds further
west along Turnagain Arm. Monday morning winds will begin to drop
below warning level.

The overall pattern will be warm southerly flow over Southcentral
Alaska bringing mostly rain to the area through Tuesday. In this
setup, with multiple waves progressing through the pattern over
Southcentral, the majority of the precip will fall along the
north Gulf coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A strong low pressure system will move northward just to the west
of Kodiak Island tonight and bring a trough through Southwest
Alaska during the short term. There is not as much warm air aloft
with this system as the last one, so precipitation is expected to
be a mix across Bristol Bay, with snow falling mainly northwest of
Naknek. Southeasterly winds on the leeward side of the Aleutian
Range should warm temperatures enough that freezing rain will not
be a concern for this system. Showers will linger in the area
through Tuesday night, when another low approaches from the North
Pacific and enters Bristol Bay. This is a weaker system and few
impacts are expected across the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
The low in the Gulf of Alaska will tighten the gradient across the
Bering Sea and push the wind direction to be more northerly. This
will keep gale force winds across the northern Bering, along with
snow showers in the north and some mixed precipitation along the
Aleutians. Seas are relatively high across the western Aleutians
as a remnant from the last low pressure system to move through.
Although they'll decrease as we move through the short term, seas
will increase in the Bering with the northerly flow and the long
fetch. It's not until Tuesday night that we begin to see winds
and seas settle across the Bering and Aleutians.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

An active pattern remains through the long range forecast as
multiple low pressure systems track to the southern mainland from
the Gulf and Bering. Tuesday night the persistent pattern
continues with amplified ridging over the Southeast, however a
pattern shift begins to take place across the Bering and
Aleutians. A zonal subtropical jet begins to nose closer to the
Aleutian Chain sending a storm system northward which pushes a
front across the Central Aleutians and Western Bering on
Wednesday. A jet streak puts this storm into eastward motion along
the Chain which works to break down the high amplitude ridge by
the end of the work week. There is high confidence for the
anticipated pattern change as all the models are showing these
trends. Only minor changes were made for the extended range
forecast Wednesday through Saturday night with an equally
weighted trend of the operational models and ensembles.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High Wind Warning 101 125 135.
MARINE...Gale 121 127-129 136 140 141 150 173-175 178 179 181 185.
Storm 119 120 125 130-132 137-139.
Heavy Freezing Spray 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SEB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...LF
LONG TERM...KH