Gale Warning 617, NWS Anchorage, AK

002 
FZAK52 PAFC 130016
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
316 PM AKST Sun Nov 12 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-131330-
316 PM AKST Sun Nov 12 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A front over the Western Aleutians and western Bering Sea moves to 
the Alaska Peninsula by Tue night.

$$

PKZ150-131330-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
316 PM AKST Sun Nov 12 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ155-131330-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
316 PM AKST Sun Nov 12 2017

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt except N 20 kt from the Shumagin
Islands E. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ160-131330-
Bristol Bay-
316 PM AKST Sun Nov 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ165-131330-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
316 PM AKST Sun Nov 12 2017

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt except NW 20 kt from Port Moller E.
Seas 5 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt except NW 15 kt from Port Moller E.
Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ170-131330-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
316 PM AKST Sun Nov 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ171-131330-
Unalaska Bay-
316 PM AKST Sun Nov 12 2017

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ172-131330-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
316 PM AKST Sun Nov 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ173-131330-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
316 PM AKST Sun Nov 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Areas of fog.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ174-131330-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
316 PM AKST Sun Nov 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ175-131330-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
316 PM AKST Sun Nov 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Areas of fog.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Areas of fog. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 30 kt becoming SW 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ176-131330-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
316 PM AKST Sun Nov 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Areas of fog.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Areas of fog. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 15 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ177-131330-
Adak to Kiska-
316 PM AKST Sun Nov 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Areas of fog. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Areas of fog. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ178-131330-
Kiska to Attu-
316 PM AKST Sun Nov 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. Areas of fog.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ179-131330-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
316 PM AKST Sun Nov 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt in the evening increasing to 20 kt. 
Seas 8 ft. Areas of fog. Rain.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Areas of fog. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ180-131330-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
316 PM AKST Sun Nov 12 2017

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ181-131330-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
316 PM AKST Sun Nov 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ185-131330-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
316 PM AKST Sun Nov 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...E 30 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
422 PM AKST Sat Nov 11 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The amplified upper level pattern remains in place over Alaska
today. A large surface and upper level high is over the eastern
Aleutians into the western interior while a upper trough from the
eastern interior into the Gulf of Alaska supports a surface low
over the southeastern Gulf/northeast Pacific. An upper trough
extends from off the Kamchatka Peninsula into the North Pacific
with a large surface low well south of the Western Aleutians. A
front runs from this low to a low over Siberia.

The strong southerly flow west of the ridge is pumping warm moist
air into the Aleutians and Bering Sea. This air has +8 degrees C
850 mb temperatures in it and is expected to work over the top of
the ridge eventually into southwest Alaska. Subsidence is
prevalent under the ridge over southwest Alaska now. This is
supporting the very foggy conditions over the Kuskokwim Delta.
Strong northerly flow aloft across the southern Mainland is
supporting the strong outflow winds through many of the mountain
gaps of the coastal mountains.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The models are in excellent agreement through the short-term in
this persistent pattern. The primary challenge is resolving the
gap flow winds. The models are in good agreement on the gap flow
winds and the development of a low along the North Gulf Coast
Sunday night. The overall pattern is well handled, and confidence
is high. More challenging is the fog forecast for the Kuskokwim
Delta. The models are not in lock step with the next upper trough
moving across the top of the ridge, and this will be an important
factor for determining how much fog persists. At this point we are
leaning toward the GFS solution.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions will persist. Gusty north winds will diminish
this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The outflow pattern continues through early next week. A ridge
aloft moves over the area tonight which will help to temporarily
relax winds around the area. The break will be very short-lived as
a shortwave trough and upper level jet push over the area from the
northwest. Some light snow will be possible over the eastern
Copper River Basin beginning Sunday afternoon, lingering through
Monday. However, the main impact with this system will be outflow
winds. The disturbance will advect a cold air mass from the
interior over Southcentral Alaska and into the Gulf. The strong
advection over the mountains will create potential for a window
of warning level winds in the Valdez area Sunday evening. Winds
there, and all along the gulf coast, will remain very gusty
through at least Tuesday, and possibly beyond. Otherwise expect
clear and dry conditions through the period with seasonable
temperatures and light northerly winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
High pressure will remain over the eastern Bering through Monday
which will keep fog as a problem along the coast and for the
Kuskokwim Delta through Sunday. As flow becomes more northerly
and drier on Monday, fog should diminish. A weak wave will also
move through southwest Alaska tonight bringing light snow to
higher elevation areas into Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
Ridging will remain over the eastern Bering through Monday keeping
most of the precipitation over the Western and Central Aleutians
with southerly flow moving up the west side of the ridge. Several
different shortwaves will move through the southerly flow with
enough warm air that precipitation will be rain. Sunday afternoon
some of the rain will make it over the Pribilof Islands and linger
through early Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
Little overall change is expected in the forecast early next week
as widespread offshore flow continues to bring outflow winds to
much of the Gulf Coast with clear and cold conditions to the South
Mainland. There is however good agreement that this pattern will
begin to break down Tue-Wed, with a North Pacific low strong
enough to begin weakening the persistent ridging over the Bering.
This low will push through the Bering through Wednesday, which
should help both scour out the widespread fog over the
Bering/Southwest Mainland as well as begin to diminish the outflow
winds along the North Gulf Coast. This pattern shift should also
allow for a series of deeper lows to move through the Bering and
into the Gulf beginning late next week into next weekend, leading
to a much more active and progressive weather pattern than the
last week. There is however a large spread in the model guidance
in both the track and intensity of these lows, largely because of
differences in how much cold air will be available over the
mainland, so the details in the long term forecast are very broad
brushed for now.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High Wind Watch 131.
MARINE...Gale Warning 120 127 130 131 132 150 175 176 177.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SA
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MTL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DK
LONG TERM...DEK