Gale Warning 61, NWS Anchorage, AK

624 
FZAK52 PAFC 181251
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
351 AM AKST WED JAN 18 2017

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-190130-
351 AM AKST WED JAN 18 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

BOGOSLOF VOLCANO 53 NM WEST OF DUTCH HARBOR REMAINS ACTIVE. A 985 MB
LOW 100 NM NORTH OF ATKA WILL MOVE TO 140 NM SOUTHWEST OF SAINT
PAUL AT 975 MB THIS AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE TO 80 NM SOUTHWEST OF
CAPE NEWENHAM AT 983 MB THU NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-190130-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
351 AM AKST WED JAN 18 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IN THE
MORNING N OF CHIRIKOF ISLAND.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE EVENING.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ155-190130-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
351 AM AKST WED JAN 18 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ160-190130-
BRISTOL BAY-
351 AM AKST WED JAN 18 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT
IN THE AFTERNOON. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ165-190130-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
351 AM AKST WED JAN 18 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT EXCEPT S 20 KT FROM PORT MOLLER E. SEAS 5
FT BUILDING TO 9 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY E OF PORT
MOLLER.
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ170-190130-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
351 AM AKST WED JAN 18 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ171-190130-
UNALASKA BAY-
351 AM AKST WED JAN 18 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ172-190130-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
351 AM AKST WED JAN 18 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ173-190130-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
351 AM AKST WED JAN 18 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 40 KT BECOMING W 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT.

$$

PKZ174-190130-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
351 AM AKST WED JAN 18 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING.
SNOW.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.

$$

PKZ175-190130-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
351 AM AKST WED JAN 18 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT.

$$

PKZ176-190130-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
351 AM AKST WED JAN 18 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT.

$$

PKZ177-190130-
ADAK TO KISKA-
351 AM AKST WED JAN 18 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.

$$

PKZ178-190130-
KISKA TO ATTU-
351 AM AKST WED JAN 18 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.

$$

PKZ179-190130-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
351 AM AKST WED JAN 18 2017

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY IN THE MORNING. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 16 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT BECOMING NW 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 19 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ180-190130-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
351 AM AKST WED JAN 18 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. 
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ181-190130-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
351 AM AKST WED JAN 18 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT.
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT.

$$

PKZ185-190130-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
351 AM AKST WED JAN 18 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...NE 35 KT W
OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 15 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.THU...NE WIND 40 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...N 30 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 14 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
404 AM AKST Tue Jan 17 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A remnant low remains in Prince William Sound following the front
which lifted through Southcentral Alaska yesterday afternoon and
evening. A trough trails into the western Gulf with southwesterly
flow out ahead of it continuing to push snow showers onshore along
the northern Gulf Coast. Behind the trough, drier northwesterly
flow has been diminishing snow showers however, this is being
offset somewhat by cold advection increasing instability. Over
mainland southwest Alaska, very cold temperatures persist under a
cold upper level trough. Cold air/instability snow showers
continue over much of the Bering while a surface low begins to
develop near Adak.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models remain in good agreement through midweek with respect to
offshore flow developing in the Gulf of Alaska and southern
Mainland Alaska, however struggle significantly with the low
developing over the Central Aleutians and tracking into the
Bering. For the western domain a blend of the NAM and Canadian was
preferred while for the east the NAM and GFS were preferred to
better capture outflow winds.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...MVFR conditions with occasional snow showers will taper off
this morning improving to VFR as the flow shifts to drier
northwesterly. VFR conditions will persist into Wed.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The upper level trough over Southcentral Alaska will move east of
the area this afternoon. Showers will linger over some areas,
especially near Prince William Sound and the Gulf coast east of
the Sound with plenty of low level moisture streaming in. The main
story for the next couple of days will be the intrusion of very
cold air. Cold advection is already beginning, and most areas will
see steadily dropping temperatures through today and tonight. On
Wednesday night most locations will see temperatures lower than
they have seen in several years. Very cold wind chills are
expected through Broad Pass beginning later today as cold air
pours in from the north.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
Cold and dry conditions for southwest Alaska will continue into
Wednesday when a front from a low in the Bering will push in over
the area. The front looks to bring light snow and cloud cover to
the area as well as raise temperatures. However, temperatures
will still stay well below freezing.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
The big question for the Bering and Aleutians is what will happen
with the low near the Central Aleutians. Models have come into
agreement that the low will track into the Bering and move toward
the Pribilof Islands today into Wednesday, but they are struggling
with how fast the low will move through and where it will go
afterward. The majority move it toward the Eastern Aleutians
Thursday and that is the higher confidence forecast. The toughest
question is how much snow will fall for the Pribilof Islands
Wednesday and how much blowing snow the area will see. There is
decent agreement with the winds, but current guidance has the
heaviest snow missing the islands, reducing the blowing snow
threat of visibility dropping below one mile.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
Beginning the extended period forecast Wednesday night, a very
deep arctic trough will be centered over the central part of the
state with the trough axis extending through Southern Alaska.
Strong offshore flow will be in place across the North Gulf Coast.
This pattern will be supporting 850C temperatures in the range of
-20C across Southcentral to -30C across Southwest Alaska. These
cold temperatures will settle in through Friday morning before
warmer air moves back in as a Bering low spreads clouds and warmer
air northward. This will increase snow chances for all of Southern
Alaska, although at this juncture the overall pattern does not
look very conducive to any significant storms. Temperatures will
moderate through the remainder of the weekend into the next week
as a series of weak Gulf lows linger near the Gulf coast, keeping
enough clouds and warm air advection aloft to keep bitterly cold
temperatures from settling into Southcentral.

Over the Bering Sea, a strong gale force low will be moving from
the Eastern Bering Sea into the Gulf of Alaska Thursday and
Thursday night. Strong cyclonic flow behind this low will keep
widespread snow showers and northerly winds over the Bering Sea
through Friday before a strong low potentially moves into the
Western Bering Sea later in the weekend into next week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Wind Chill Advisory...145.
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 121 126 127 129 130 138 139
									  141 150 160 165 180 185.
         Gale Warning 130 131 132 170 173 174 175 177 179.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JER
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DK
LONG TERM...JA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1044 AM AKST TUE JAN 17 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 AM     SNOW             1 N PALMER              61.61N 149.11W
01/17/2017  M8.8 INCH                           AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            8.8 INCHES OF NEW SNOW FELL ON MONDAY JANUARY 16.

&&

RDUELL