Gale Warning 11, NWS Anchorage, AK

941 
FZAK61 PAFC 181237
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
337 AM AKST WED JAN 18 2017

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-190245-
337 AM AKST WED JAN 18 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN GULF WILL INTENSIFY TODAY
AND TONIGHT ENHANCING OFFSHORE FLOW WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THU. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF THU AND
SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL GULF THU NIGHT.

$$

PKZ351-190245-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
337 AM AKST WED JAN 18 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT INCREASING TO 20 TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.FRI...E WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.

$$

PKZ352-190245-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
337 AM AKST WED JAN 18 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.

$$

361 
FZAK61 PAFC 190042
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
342 PM AKST WED JAN 18 2017

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-191500-
342 PM AKST WED JAN 18 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN GULF WILL WEAKEN THROUGH
FRI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF THU AND
SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL GULF FRI.

$$

PKZ351-191500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
342 PM AKST WED JAN 18 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ352-191500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
342 PM AKST WED JAN 18 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT DIMINISHING TO UP TO 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.

$$

130 
FZAK61 PAFC 191231
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
331 AM AKST THU JAN 19 2017

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-200230-
331 AM AKST THU JAN 19 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL SHIFT INTO
THE EASTERN GULF TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
WESTERN GULF THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT.

$$

PKZ351-200230-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
331 AM AKST THU JAN 19 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND UP TO 15 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ352-200230-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
331 AM AKST THU JAN 19 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.

$$

804 
FZAK61 PAFC 200024
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
324 PM AKST THU JAN 19 2017

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-201445-
324 PM AKST THU JAN 19 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE GULF TONIGHT AS A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WEAKENS. A WEATHER FRONT
THEN MOVES TO THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN GULF FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.

$$

PKZ351-201445-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
324 PM AKST THU JAN 19 2017

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 20 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.FRI...W WIND UP TO 15 KT BECOMING S UP TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND UP TO 20 KT BECOMING E AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 TO 9 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 TO 18 FT.

$$

PKZ352-201445-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
324 PM AKST THU JAN 19 2017

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 16 TO 19 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
404 AM AKST Tue Jan 17 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A remnant low remains in Prince William Sound following the front
which lifted through Southcentral Alaska yesterday afternoon and
evening. A trough trails into the western Gulf with southwesterly
flow out ahead of it continuing to push snow showers onshore along
the northern Gulf Coast. Behind the trough, drier northwesterly
flow has been diminishing snow showers however, this is being
offset somewhat by cold advection increasing instability. Over
mainland southwest Alaska, very cold temperatures persist under a
cold upper level trough. Cold air/instability snow showers
continue over much of the Bering while a surface low begins to
develop near Adak.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models remain in good agreement through midweek with respect to
offshore flow developing in the Gulf of Alaska and southern
Mainland Alaska, however struggle significantly with the low
developing over the Central Aleutians and tracking into the
Bering. For the western domain a blend of the NAM and Canadian was
preferred while for the east the NAM and GFS were preferred to
better capture outflow winds.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...MVFR conditions with occasional snow showers will taper off
this morning improving to VFR as the flow shifts to drier
northwesterly. VFR conditions will persist into Wed.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The upper level trough over Southcentral Alaska will move east of
the area this afternoon. Showers will linger over some areas,
especially near Prince William Sound and the Gulf coast east of
the Sound with plenty of low level moisture streaming in. The main
story for the next couple of days will be the intrusion of very
cold air. Cold advection is already beginning, and most areas will
see steadily dropping temperatures through today and tonight. On
Wednesday night most locations will see temperatures lower than
they have seen in several years. Very cold wind chills are
expected through Broad Pass beginning later today as cold air
pours in from the north.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
Cold and dry conditions for southwest Alaska will continue into
Wednesday when a front from a low in the Bering will push in over
the area. The front looks to bring light snow and cloud cover to
the area as well as raise temperatures. However, temperatures
will still stay well below freezing.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
The big question for the Bering and Aleutians is what will happen
with the low near the Central Aleutians. Models have come into
agreement that the low will track into the Bering and move toward
the Pribilof Islands today into Wednesday, but they are struggling
with how fast the low will move through and where it will go
afterward. The majority move it toward the Eastern Aleutians
Thursday and that is the higher confidence forecast. The toughest
question is how much snow will fall for the Pribilof Islands
Wednesday and how much blowing snow the area will see. There is
decent agreement with the winds, but current guidance has the
heaviest snow missing the islands, reducing the blowing snow
threat of visibility dropping below one mile.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
Beginning the extended period forecast Wednesday night, a very
deep arctic trough will be centered over the central part of the
state with the trough axis extending through Southern Alaska.
Strong offshore flow will be in place across the North Gulf Coast.
This pattern will be supporting 850C temperatures in the range of
-20C across Southcentral to -30C across Southwest Alaska. These
cold temperatures will settle in through Friday morning before
warmer air moves back in as a Bering low spreads clouds and warmer
air northward. This will increase snow chances for all of Southern
Alaska, although at this juncture the overall pattern does not
look very conducive to any significant storms. Temperatures will
moderate through the remainder of the weekend into the next week
as a series of weak Gulf lows linger near the Gulf coast, keeping
enough clouds and warm air advection aloft to keep bitterly cold
temperatures from settling into Southcentral.

Over the Bering Sea, a strong gale force low will be moving from
the Eastern Bering Sea into the Gulf of Alaska Thursday and
Thursday night. Strong cyclonic flow behind this low will keep
widespread snow showers and northerly winds over the Bering Sea
through Friday before a strong low potentially moves into the
Western Bering Sea later in the weekend into next week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Wind Chill Advisory...145.
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 121 126 127 129 130 138 139
									  141 150 160 165 180 185.
         Gale Warning 130 131 132 170 173 174 175 177 179.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JER
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DK
LONG TERM...JA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1044 AM AKST TUE JAN 17 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 AM     SNOW             1 N PALMER              61.61N 149.11W
01/17/2017  M8.8 INCH                           AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            8.8 INCHES OF NEW SNOW FELL ON MONDAY JANUARY 16.

&&

RDUELL