Gale Warning 602, NWS Anchorage, AK

754 
FZAK52 PAFC 070038
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
338 PM AKST Mon Nov 6 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-071345-
338 PM AKST Mon Nov 6 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A front will move across the Bering and into the Western Mainland by
Tue morning.


$$

PKZ150-071345-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
338 PM AKST Mon Nov 6 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming NW 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 12 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ155-071345-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
338 PM AKST Mon Nov 6 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt after midnight. 
From the Shumagin Islands E, NE wind 20 kt in the evening becoming 
variable 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt becoming NW 20 kt in the afternoon. From the 
Shumagin Islands E, variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ160-071345-
Bristol Bay-
338 PM AKST Mon Nov 6 2017

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ165-071345-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
338 PM AKST Mon Nov 6 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. From Port Moller E, S wind 15 kt becoming W
25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ170-071345-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
338 PM AKST Mon Nov 6 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ171-071345-
Unalaska Bay-
338 PM AKST Mon Nov 6 2017

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-071345-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
338 PM AKST Mon Nov 6 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ173-071345-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
338 PM AKST Mon Nov 6 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ174-071345-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
338 PM AKST Mon Nov 6 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt becoming NW after midnight. Seas 8 ft.
Patchy fog. Rain.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ175-071345-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
338 PM AKST Mon Nov 6 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ176-071345-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
338 PM AKST Mon Nov 6 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ177-071345-
Adak to Kiska-
338 PM AKST Mon Nov 6 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt becoming SW 35 kt after midnight. 
Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ178-071345-
Kiska to Attu-
338 PM AKST Mon Nov 6 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ179-071345-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
338 PM AKST Mon Nov 6 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt becoming NW 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas 12 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt becoming SW 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ180-071345-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
338 PM AKST Mon Nov 6 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ181-071345-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
338 PM AKST Mon Nov 6 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt becoming SW 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ185-071345-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
338 PM AKST Mon Nov 6 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E of Saint Matthew Island, S wind 40 kt becoming W 25
kt after midnight. W of Saint Matthew Island, SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18
ft. Rain.
.TUE...E of Saint Matthew Island, SW wind 20 kt becoming S 35 kt
in the afternoon. W of Saint Matthew Island, S wind 35 kt. Seas 17 
ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

089 
FZAK52 PAFC 071257
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
357 AM AKST Tue Nov 7 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-080215-
357 AM AKST Tue Nov 7 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 969 mb Russian Arctic low extends a front through the Eastern 
Bering that will move inland over Western Alaska Tue afternoon. A
996 mb low forms 310 nm West of St Matthew Island Midday Tue and 
moves into the Chukchi Sea Wed morning. A 1014 mb low forms 60 nm
Northwest of St Paul Island Wed afternoon and moves onshore over
Kipnuk at 1008 mb late Wed night.

$$

PKZ150-080215-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
357 AM AKST Tue Nov 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming NW 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 12 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ155-080215-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
357 AM AKST Tue Nov 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt becoming NW 25 kt in the afternoon. 
From the Shumagin Islands E, variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft. Patchy 
fog.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ160-080215-
Bristol Bay-
357 AM AKST Tue Nov 7 2017

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy morning fog.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ165-080215-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
357 AM AKST Tue Nov 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt becoming W 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
7 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ170-080215-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
357 AM AKST Tue Nov 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ171-080215-
Unalaska Bay-
357 AM AKST Tue Nov 7 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NW wind 20 kt in the
afternoon. Seas building to 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-080215-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
357 AM AKST Tue Nov 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ173-080215-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
357 AM AKST Tue Nov 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ174-080215-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
357 AM AKST Tue Nov 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ175-080215-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
357 AM AKST Tue Nov 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ176-080215-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
357 AM AKST Tue Nov 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ177-080215-
Adak to Kiska-
357 AM AKST Tue Nov 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ178-080215-
Kiska to Attu-
357 AM AKST Tue Nov 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt becoming NW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ179-080215-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
357 AM AKST Tue Nov 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt becoming SW 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
10 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ180-080215-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
357 AM AKST Tue Nov 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ181-080215-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
357 AM AKST Tue Nov 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt becoming SW 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8
ft. Patchy fog. Rain and snow showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain and snow.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ185-080215-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
357 AM AKST Tue Nov 7 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E of Saint Matthew Island, SW wind 20 kt becoming S 30 kt
in the afternoon. W of Saint Matthew Island, S wind 35 kt. Seas
18 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
524 PM AKST Sun Nov 5 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
An amplifying upper level ridge over the eastern Bering Sea and
digging upper level trough over the eastern Interior and
Southcentral Alaska are the main weather features for the most of
the region today. In the far western part of the forecast area the
next upper level low is sitting over eastern Russia with a sharp
trough over Kamchatka. This is bringing a 150 kt jet at 250 mb
into the western Aleutians and western Bering Sea.

The trough over Southcentral Alaska is beginning to develop a cut
off low over Cook Inlet today as was expected. This low will then
head into the Gulf of Alaska tonight and help strengthen a
surface low that is in the western Gulf. This low is also being
strengthened by strong cold air advection coming through the
Alaska Peninsula and feeding into the low. The building high
pressure over the mainland part of the state, combined with this
intensifying Gulf low, will set the stage for some strong winds
along the Gulf coast and breezy north to northwest winds over the
rest of southern mainland Alaska.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
On the synoptic scale, the models are in good agreement through
most of the week. Details will therefore be the big issue for
determining the forecasts. In the short term this is the challenge
with the outflow winds on the North Gulf coast Monday into
Tuesday and in Valdez in particular. The higher resolution models
such as the NAM and Namnest are showing a setup conducive to mix
the stronger winds aloft down to the surface.
Farther out this week there will be some upper level waves moving
rather rapidly across the region. While the overall pattern will
keep mostly clear skies over much of the mainland, each of these
waves has a chance to bring a brief shot of precipitation as it
moves across. Details on the timing, strength, and available
moisture with each of the waves will be something to keep watching
this week.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...As the system that brought the snow moves out of the area,
the northerly winds will increase overnight and persist through
the day Monday. The winds will be strong enough to allow skies to
clear out and therefore VFR conditions are expected to persist as
soon as the winds kick up and push out the lingering low clouds.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2...Mon and
Tue)...
We will begin the transition from snow into potent offshore flow
to start the work week. Snow amounts panned out well across the
area with generally 3 to 5 inches across Anchorage with lesser
amounts in the Matanuska Valley, Eagle River, and the Anchorage
Hillside. Please see the Public Information Statement for more
details. The energy that helped to provide the lift for the snow
is now clearly evident diving into the Gulf of AK. The upper level
support combined with colder air moving over the still-quite warm
Gulf waters will result in rapid deepening of the surface low. As
a ridge of high pressure starts to tip into the region from the
Bering Sea, it will work in tandem with the low to allow the
pressure gradient to increase. Upper level support will follow
along on Mon helping to further enhance the mixing associated with
these winds. Strong north winds will be felt throughout the area.
On top of this, the typical gusty north to south channels (Seward,
Matanuska Valley, etc) will see even higher winds. Right now, it
looks like enough ingredients come together over the Valdez and
Thompson Pass area for some mountain wave activity. A high wind
warning has been issued to address this. Even though recent
snowfall was quite wet and had a high liquid water content, winds
could be strong enough to cause some blowing snow as the event
starts. The winds should peak late Mon night and then gradually
diminish on Tue. Even though temperatures will cool a couple of
degrees under the offshore flow, there will be widespread sunshine
across much of the area. Snow showers could linger a bit longer
over the Copper River Basin into midday Mon, but little to no
additional accumulation is expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The upper level ridge over the eastern Bering will shift east to
the Kuskokwim Delta coast late tonight, then tilt inland over
Southwest Alaska Monday and Monday night. Gusty northerly gap
winds through the Alaska Peninsula will continue tonight through
Monday morning then taper off Monday afternoon through Monday
night as the upper level ridge tilts overhead. An upper level
trough will follow Tuesday and Tuesday night pushing the ridge
east of the Alaska Range and bringing a cooler air mass onshore
and into Southwest Alaska.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
A strong gale force front stretching from the western Aleutians
across the western Bering will swing into the central Aleutians
and central Bering tonight through Monday and then weaken as it
continues into the eastern Bering Monday night. The next frontal
system, which will be more of an open wave supported by a good bit
of cold air aloft, will swing across the western Aleutians Monday
evening and then continue east-northeast across the central and
eastern Bering Monday night through Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7: Wednesday through
Sunday)...

Offshore flow along the northern Gulf Coast will subside Tuesday
night as a transient ridge moves overhead. To the west however, an
approaching upper-level wave and a strengthening surface pressure
gradient will support increasing northwesterly outflow winds
along the Alaska Peninsula into the western Gulf Wednesday and
Thursday. Clouds and the chance for some very isolated snow
showers returns to Southcentral Thursday as a deepening trough
over the mainland sends a series of shortwaves southeast. Thursday
night, the trough will further amplify and a surface low will
develop in the northeastern Gulf. As the upper trough and the
surface low shift southeast, deep northerly flow will re-
establish itself over the Mainland. This setup supports the
potential for another strong outflow wind event along the northern
Gulf Coast towards the end of the week. In addition to the
wind potential towards the end of the week, expect temperatures to
rapidly cool Thursday night through Saturday over much of the
Mainland as an Arctic airmass is pulled southward on the backside
of the deep trough.

Gusty, showery weather will continue through Thursday over the
Bering Sea as the atmosphere continues to destabilize in response
to cold air advection. A ridge will build in Thursday night,
initiating a drying trend through the end of the week over the
Bering Sea.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale 120 126-128 130-132 136-140 150 175 177 178 185
411-413. Storm 351 352.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MSO/PS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JR
LONG TERM...RSD