Gale Warning 601, NWS Anchorage, AK

472 
FZAK52 PAFC 061252
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
352 AM AKST Mon Nov 6 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-070215-
352 AM AKST Mon Nov 6 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
High pressure over the Eastern Bering slides into Interior Alaska 
late Mon night. A 983 mb Russian Far East low extends a front 
through the Western Aleutians. This front will move across the
Bering into the Western Mainland for Tue afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-070215-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
352 AM AKST Mon Nov 6 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas
13 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ155-070215-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
352 AM AKST Mon Nov 6 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
8 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt becoming W after midnight. Seas 6 ft.
Patchy fog.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt becoming NW 25 kt in the afternoon. From the
Shumagin Islands E, variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ160-070215-
Bristol Bay-
352 AM AKST Mon Nov 6 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt becoming E after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
Areas of fog.
.TUE...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 1 foot. Areas of fog.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ165-070215-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
352 AM AKST Mon Nov 6 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ170-070215-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
352 AM AKST Mon Nov 6 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt becoming NW after midnight. Seas 6 ft. 
Patchy fog. Rain.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ171-070215-
Unalaska Bay-
352 AM AKST Mon Nov 6 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming N toward morning. Seas 2 ft. Patchy
fog. Rain.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-070215-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
352 AM AKST Mon Nov 6 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming N toward morning. Seas 6 ft. Patchy
fog.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ173-070215-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
352 AM AKST Mon Nov 6 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt becoming N 20 kt after midnight. Seas 7 ft. 
Patchy fog.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ174-070215-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
352 AM AKST Mon Nov 6 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt becoming N 20 kt after midnight. Seas 8 ft.
Patchy fog.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ175-070215-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
352 AM AKST Mon Nov 6 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 40 kt becoming W 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 12
ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ176-070215-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
352 AM AKST Mon Nov 6 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 35 kt becoming W 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 12
ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ177-070215-
Adak to Kiska-
352 AM AKST Mon Nov 6 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 35 kt becoming W wind 25 kt late morning. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt becoming SW 40 kt after midnight. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ178-070215-
Kiska to Attu-
352 AM AKST Mon Nov 6 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt becoming SW 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 12 ft
building to 15 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ179-070215-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
352 AM AKST Mon Nov 6 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11 
ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt becoming NW 20 kt after midnight. Seas
11 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ180-070215-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
352 AM AKST Mon Nov 6 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt becoming S 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft.
Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Areas of fog.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ181-070215-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
352 AM AKST Mon Nov 6 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt increasing to 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft
building to 12 ft in the afternoon. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt becoming SW 25 kt after midnight. Seas 13 ft.
Patchy fog.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ185-070215-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
352 AM AKST Mon Nov 6 2017

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 55 kt. Seas 24 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E of Saint Matthew Island, S wind 40 kt becoming W 20
kt after midnight. W of Saint Matthew Island, W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 
ft. Rain.
.TUE...E of Saint Matthew Island, W wind 20 kt becoming SW 30 kt in 
the afternoon. W of Saint Matthew Island, S wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

754 
FZAK52 PAFC 070038
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
338 PM AKST Mon Nov 6 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-071345-
338 PM AKST Mon Nov 6 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A front will move across the Bering and into the Western Mainland by
Tue morning.


$$

PKZ150-071345-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
338 PM AKST Mon Nov 6 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming NW 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 12 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ155-071345-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
338 PM AKST Mon Nov 6 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt after midnight. 
From the Shumagin Islands E, NE wind 20 kt in the evening becoming 
variable 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt becoming NW 20 kt in the afternoon. From the 
Shumagin Islands E, variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ160-071345-
Bristol Bay-
338 PM AKST Mon Nov 6 2017

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ165-071345-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
338 PM AKST Mon Nov 6 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. From Port Moller E, S wind 15 kt becoming W
25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ170-071345-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
338 PM AKST Mon Nov 6 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ171-071345-
Unalaska Bay-
338 PM AKST Mon Nov 6 2017

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-071345-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
338 PM AKST Mon Nov 6 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ173-071345-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
338 PM AKST Mon Nov 6 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ174-071345-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
338 PM AKST Mon Nov 6 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt becoming NW after midnight. Seas 8 ft.
Patchy fog. Rain.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ175-071345-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
338 PM AKST Mon Nov 6 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ176-071345-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
338 PM AKST Mon Nov 6 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ177-071345-
Adak to Kiska-
338 PM AKST Mon Nov 6 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt becoming SW 35 kt after midnight. 
Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ178-071345-
Kiska to Attu-
338 PM AKST Mon Nov 6 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ179-071345-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
338 PM AKST Mon Nov 6 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt becoming NW 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas 12 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt becoming SW 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ180-071345-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
338 PM AKST Mon Nov 6 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ181-071345-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
338 PM AKST Mon Nov 6 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt becoming SW 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ185-071345-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
338 PM AKST Mon Nov 6 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E of Saint Matthew Island, S wind 40 kt becoming W 25
kt after midnight. W of Saint Matthew Island, SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18
ft. Rain.
.TUE...E of Saint Matthew Island, SW wind 20 kt becoming S 35 kt
in the afternoon. W of Saint Matthew Island, S wind 35 kt. Seas 17 
ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
448 AM AKST Sun Nov 5 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A high amplitude pattern is progressive across the state with an
upper level ridge shifting east along the Alcan border and a
trough separating this feature from another ridge centered across
the Bering. At the surface, a trough over the southwest is pushing
a front across the Cook Inlet. Snow is developing along the
boundary from Talkeetna to Kenai with rain across the southern tip
of the Kenai Peninsula and central Gulf. The next trough to
monitor is currently pushing a front into the western Aleutians.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models converged on similar solutions during the 00Z run for the
track of the upper low which dives to the Gulf late today. The NAM
solutions provided the best guidance for winds through Tuesday
which is the main challenge as offshore flow increases with the
Bering ridge shifting across the mainland into mid week.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...LIFR conditions are expected through the morning before
improving to VFR this afternoon as a weak front moves across from
the Southwest. Northerly flow will increase this evening with
gusty conditions tonight and Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The upper level trough over Southwest Alaska early this morning
will dig aggressively southward across the western Gulf today,
with a cut-off low developing in the afternoon. This means that
the area of strongest vertical motion will also quickly shift
southward into the Gulf. Thus, steady snow falling from the
western Kenai to Anchorage and the Mat-Su will rapidly taper
off by midday. Precipitation will spread east this morning to
the Copper River Basin and the Valdez/Cordova areas, but it will
generally be lighter due to weaker vertical motion. The digging
trough will pick up a surface low currently transiting south of
Kodiak Island and lead to intensification over the southern Gulf
this afternoon and evening, before exiting to the northeast
Pacific on Monday.

The presence of a storm force low in the Gulf will only add to
what was already looking like an impressive wind event for
Southcentral and the Gulf. Some of the key ingredients include:
a very high amplitude upstream ridge over the Bering Sea with a 90
to 100 kt north to south oriented jet streak diving southward out
ahead of it; moderate cold advection in the low levels; and
rapidly tightening surface pressure gradients as the low in the
Gulf deepens and a surface high builds over interior Alaska.

Strong winds will be felt first across the western Gulf today then
shifting to the northern Gulf and western Prince William Sound
tonight through Monday. The cold air advection will lead to
unstable low levels which will be conducive to mixing down higher
winds from aloft. Thus, expect windy conditions to develop across
all of Southcentral during the day Monday. As is typical, the
strongest winds will be along the coast as colder denser air from
the interior is pushed up and over the coastal mountains, with
acceleration through mountain passes. With deep arctic air moving
into the Copper River Basin along with a decent tropopause fold on
the poleward side of the upper jet there is potential for mountain
wave activity in the Valdez to Thompson Pass area. Thus, have
issued a High Wind Watch for Monday afternoon through Monday
evening. The winds will largely keep temperatures from falling
very much tonight and Monday. However, as winds begin to die off
Monday night and Tuesday expect temperatures to quickly drop.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The upper level wave will exit southwest Alaska by this afternoon
with high pressure building in from the west. This should cut off
remaining precip and help clear out the cloud cover. The high will
slowly track east making it through southwest Alaska on Tuesday.
This will make way for a front to push in over the area from the
Bering also on Tuesday. It will then progress across the
southwest into early Wednesday bringing a mix of precipitation
that will primarily fall as snow.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
High pressure dominates the central and eastern Bering and is
slowly moving east toward southwest Alaska. Following behind the
high is a front that is moving over the Western Aleutians. The
front looks to make it to the Central Aleutians early Monday and
then to the Eastern Aleutians by Monday evening. It will be
pulling up enough warm air for precip to be rain for the Aleutians
and Pribilof Islands. Then high pressure will build in south of
the islands bringing westerly winds and light rain to the
Aleutians.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7: Tuesday through Saturday)...

Winds generally subside Tuesday as the pressure gradient slackens
across Southcentral and a ridge axis moves overhead. Shortwaves
will bring some more clouds to the southern mainland and a return
of the chance for some isolated showers through Thursday.
Offshore flow will return Friday as another outflow event sets up.

Over Southwest Alaska and the Bering Sea, the dominant ridge will
break down early next week. A front over the eastern Bering Sea
Monday night will weaken as it moves onshore Tuesday, bringing
some rain and snow inland. Behind the front over the Bering Sea,
cold air will begin to filter out of Russia and into the Bering
Sea. This will destabilize the atmosphere and re- introduce
convective showers to the Bering Sea as a series of upper-level
disturbances push east Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High Wind Watch 131.
MARINE...Gale 120 126 127 128 130 131 132 136 137 138 139 140 150 177
              178 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KH
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DK
LONG TERM...RSD