Gale Warning 576, NWS Anchorage, AK

274 
FZAK61 PAFC 161236
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
336 AM AKST Thu Nov 16 2017

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-170215-
336 AM AKST Thu Nov 16 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 1004 mb low at 59N 148W moves to 59N 142W at 988 mb Thu night. 
The low then moves to 56N 139W at 995 mb Fri night. A front 
approaches the western Gulf Fri night.

$$

PKZ351-170215-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
336 AM AKST Thu Nov 16 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 to 25 kt except NW 25 to 35 kt W of 146W. 
Seas 5 to 9 ft except 9 to 13 ft W of 146W. 
.FRI...N wind 25 kt except NW 25 to 40 kt W of 146W. Seas 5 to 10 ft
except 9 to 15 ft W of 146W. 
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SAT...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.

$$

PKZ352-170215-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
336 AM AKST Thu Nov 16 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 10 to 20 kt increasing to 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 to 45 kt...strongest W of 148W. Seas 9 to 17 
ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.SUN...SE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.
.MON...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.

$$

291 
FZAK61 PAFC 170029
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
329 PM AKST Thu Nov 16 2017

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-171415-
329 PM AKST Thu Nov 16 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 1004 mb low at 59N 148W moves to 59N 142W at 988 mb Thu night. 
The low then moves to 56N 139W at 995 mb Fri night. A front 
approaches the western Gulf Fri night.

$$

PKZ351-171415-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
329 PM AKST Thu Nov 16 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 to 25 kt except NW 25 to 35 kt W of 146W. 
Seas 5 to 9 ft except 9 to 13 ft W of 146W. 
.FRI...N wind 25 kt except NW 25 to 40 kt W of 146W. Seas 5 to 10 ft
except 9 to 15 ft W of 146W. 
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SAT...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.

$$

PKZ352-171415-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
329 PM AKST Thu Nov 16 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 10 to 20 kt increasing to 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 to 45 kt...strongest W of 148W. Seas 9 to 17 
ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.SUN...SE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.
.MON...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.

$$

120 
FZAK61 PAFC 170033 CCA
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
333 PM AKST Thu Nov 16 2017

Corrected Synopsis

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-171415-
333 PM AKST Thu Nov 16 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 996 mb low at 59N 145W will move to 58N 142W at 987 mb by Fri 
morning then it will move to 54N 138W at 1000 mb by Sat evening. 
High pressure will approach the western Gulf Fri night and 
dissipate by Sat morning. 

$$

PKZ351-171415-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
333 PM AKST Thu Nov 16 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 to 25 kt except NW 25 to 35 kt W of 146W. 
Seas 5 to 9 ft except 9 to 13 ft W of 146W. 
.FRI...N wind 25 kt except NW 25 to 40 kt W of 146W. Seas 5 to 10 ft
except 9 to 15 ft W of 146W. 
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SAT...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.

$$

PKZ352-171415-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
333 PM AKST Thu Nov 16 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 10 to 20 kt increasing to 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 to 45 kt...strongest W of 148W. Seas 9 to 17 
ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.SUN...SE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.
.MON...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.

$$

265 
FZAK61 PAFC 171243
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
343 AM AKST Fri Nov 17 2017

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-180200-
343 AM AKST Fri Nov 17 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 987 mb low at 58N 143W will move to 56N 141W at 996 mb then
move south and dissipate by Sat morning. 

$$

PKZ351-180200-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
343 AM AKST Fri Nov 17 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 to 30 kt diminishing to 10 to 25 kt after
midnight. Seas 7 to 13 ft.
.SAT...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 19 ft.
.TUE...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ352-180200-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
343 AM AKST Fri Nov 17 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.TUE...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

687 
FZAK61 PAFC 180037
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
337 PM AKST Fri Nov 17 2017

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-181400-
337 PM AKST Fri Nov 17 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 988 mb low at 58N 141W will move to 54N 142W at 1000 mb Sat 
afternoon and then dissipate. A 989 mb low at 59N 157W early Sun 
morning will move to 58N 151W and strengthen to 972 mb Sun 
afternoon.

$$

PKZ351-181400-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
337 PM AKST Fri Nov 17 2017

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 to 30 kt diminishing to 10 to 25 kt after
midnight. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.SAT...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind up to 15 kt becoming SW after midnight. Seas
3 to 6 ft. Snow.
.SUN...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.MON...NE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 13 to 20 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ352-181400-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
337 PM AKST Fri Nov 17 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 17 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

076 
FZAK61 PAFC 181244
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
344 AM AKST Sat Nov 18 2017

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-190215-
344 AM AKST Sat Nov 18 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 997 mb low at 56N 142W will move to 54N 141W at 1001 mb Sat 
afternoon and then dissipate. A 987 mb low at 58N 153W early Sun 
morning will move to 54N 151W and strengthen to 970 mb by Sun 
afternoon.

$$

PKZ351-190215-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
344 AM AKST Sat Nov 18 2017

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind up to 15 kt becoming SW after midnight. Seas 3
to 6 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.MON...NE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ352-190215-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
344 AM AKST Sat Nov 18 2017

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt becoming SW after midnight. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
Rain and snow.
.SUN...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

857 
FZAK61 PAFC 190035
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
335 PM AKST Sat Nov 18 2017

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-191415-
335 PM AKST Sat Nov 18 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 988 mb low will move to 58N 151W by Sun morning then it will
move to 57N 150W as it intensifies to 973 mb Sun afternoon. It will 
then move to 52N 151W at 982 mb by Mon afternoon. 

$$

PKZ351-191415-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
335 PM AKST Sat Nov 18 2017

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind up to 15 kt becoming SW after midnight. Seas 5
ft. Snow.
.SUN...S to E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft. Rain.
.MON...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 21 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ352-191415-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
335 PM AKST Sat Nov 18 2017

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.SUN...S to W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft building to 9 to 16 
ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 35 to 50 kt becoming SE after midnight. Seas
12 to 20 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
434 AM AKST Wed Nov 15 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A subtle pattern change is underway across the southern mainland
this morning as the stout upper level ridge over the eastern
Bering Sea makes slow eastward progress, with the ridge axis
currently extending along the west coast of Alaska. The somewhat
slower progression of the ridge has allowed gusty northerly winds
to continue overnight across much of Southcentral AK and
particularly through favored gap flow areas along the Gulf coast
as dry offshore flow remains focused over the area. Winds are
finally beginning to subside early this morning over the
Cook Inlet region as the best upper level support moves off to the
east, however these winds should continue through late morning for
other locations along the Gulf coast. Mostly clear skies continue
to prevail from Bristol Bay eastward into the Copper River Basin
owing to this continued offshore flow. Meanwhile, a weak front
spreading light rain across much of the eastern Bering is
beginning to push inland over the Kuskokwim Delta accompanied by
mixed precipitation as a layer of warmer air aloft moves into the
region from the south. Surface temperatures have been warm enough
to support mostly rain along the coast, however freezing rain
remains a concern for inland areas including Bethel this morning
as the precipitation spreads east with colder air remaining in
place at the surface.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models remain in excellent short term agreement as the ridge
shifts eastward and the current outflow wind regime gives way to
a brief shot of snow for Southcentral with the passage of a trough
on Thursday. There are still minor differences in the timing of
this feature, but the general consensus is for a brief window of
light snow moving through Anchorage and surrounding areas Thursday
morning. Continued to utilize Hi-Res guidance for the duration of
the outflow winds today before shifting to more of a GFS based
solution for the trough passage on Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Light winds and VFR conditions will persist through
Wednesday night. Light snow will spread into the terminal
beginning Thursday morning with the arrival of an upper level
trough. This will drop ceilings below 5000 ft, with a brief
period of MVFR conditions possible after 15z Thu.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2...today
and Thu)...
Pressure gradients and favorable upper support will wane this
morning and allow strong offshore flow to weaken along the North
Coast. A weather front moving moving east tonight and Thursday
will bring a snow to Southcentral beginning Thursday morning. Snow
totals should be on the light side in most areas. Although the
frontal progression has slowed some, the brunt of the snow should
end across the western Kenai Peninsula, Anchorage Bowl, and Mat-Su
Valleys by the mid afternoon hours. Cold advection behind this
front will bring another round of outflow and gap flows Thursday
night.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The main challenges in the short range forecast are gusty winds
and precipitation as two fronts moves across the region. The first
front currently along the Kuskokwim Delta coast is expected to
slowly progress east today. Models previously projected that this
system would be fairly organized as the associated upper low was
progged to dive southeast. The most recent runs between all of the
models are now trending toward the upper level low shearing apart
as the next ridge amplifies across the central Bering. This
essentially brings a less dynamic system across the southwestern
region with an upper level shortwave accompanied by a weak surface
trough. To account for these latest trends, the front was slowed
down with the morning package and snow amounts were slightly
lowered. The front still might not progress as expected today due
to the weaker push in the upper levels, however the next disturbance
races to the southwest coast tonight which should kick the surface
front into motion.

Stronger northerly flow increases late Thursday into Friday as a
jet max noses across the Bering Strait around another ridge which
becomes highly amplified over the Central Bering. The ridge brings
a drier pattern into the weekend along with gusty northerly flow
continuing across the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

A front spreads rain across the eastern Bering and Alaska
Peninsula through this afternoon and then slides inland tonight.
Meanwhile, a ridge builds across the southwestern Bering this
afternoon bringing gusty zonal flow along much of the western
Bering as the pressure gradient is squeezed between this ridge
and low pressure holding to the north.

A strong disturbance rides along the western perimeter of the
ridge this afternoon and is shunted north toward Kamchatka. Strong
forcing from the disturbance around the ridge along with the
upper jet amplifying toward the Bering strait will induce very
gusty northerly flow across the eastern Bering and Alaska
Peninsula Thursday afternoon into Friday. There is still
uncertainty in the timing and location for the strongest winds and
therefore mariners should continue to monitor this system for
future updates.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
Yet another outflow event will develop along the North Gulf Coast
on Friday as an Eastern Gulf low intensifies and weak ridging
begins to move through the Mainland from the Bering. Just ahead of
this ridge, a shortwave will quickly push through the Southwest
coast, bringing light accumulations to many areas of Thursday,
which may also produce areas of blowing snow as gusty
northwesterly winds quickly follow it.

Certainty in the forecast then begins to quickly break down this
weekend as significant spread in the track of a rapidly deepening
low moves from the Bering into either the Gulf or North Pacific
(depending on which model guidance you look at). The EC has been
the most consistent with this low, bringing a rapidly deepening
low into the central Gulf by Sunday with widespread snow and wind
to the Southern Mainland. The GFS on the other hand was very
sporadic overnight, but is beginning to becoming more consistent
in a track much further to the south, providing only a glancing
blow of winds to the gulf and little if any precipitation to the
Southern Mainland. Due to this large spread in the low track and
expected impacts, little if any change is being made to the
extended forecast today awaiting better model consensus. This is a
system that bears watching however, as trends in either direction
will result in significant changes to the weekends forecast.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None
MARINE...Gale Warning 130 131 132 150 155 160 165 172 180 181 185

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...CB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...RMC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KH
LONG TERM...DEK