Storm Warning 134, NWS Anchorage, AK

326 
FZAK52 PAFC 170050
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
350 PM AKST Thu Nov 16 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-171345-
350 PM AKST Thu Nov 16 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A front in the western Aleutians and western Bering moves 
eastward into the Alaska Peninsula through Sat evening. High
pressure dissipates through Sat. 

$$

PKZ150-171345-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
350 PM AKST Thu Nov 16 2017

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 50 kt. Gusts to 70 kt out of bays and passes.
Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 45 kt. Gusts to 60 kt out of bays and passes.
Seas 16 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight.
Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ155-171345-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
350 PM AKST Thu Nov 16 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 45 kt. Gusts to 60 kt out of bays and passes.
Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. From the Shumagin Islands E, NW wind 40 kt
diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Gusts to 45 kt out of bays and
passes during the morning. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.MON...N wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ160-171345-
Bristol Bay-
350 PM AKST Thu Nov 16 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt becoming N 15 kt after midnight. Seas
8 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...N wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ165-171345-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
350 PM AKST Thu Nov 16 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. From Port Moller E, NW wind 25 kt
diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 28 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 50 kt. Seas 32 ft.
.MON...N wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ170-171345-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
350 PM AKST Thu Nov 16 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 29 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 50 kt. Seas 33 ft.
.MON...N wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ171-171345-
Unalaska Bay-
350 PM AKST Thu Nov 16 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 50 kt. Seas 28 ft.
.MON...N wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ172-171345-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
350 PM AKST Thu Nov 16 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 50 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.MON...N wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ173-171345-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
350 PM AKST Thu Nov 16 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 28 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 28 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ174-171345-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
350 PM AKST Thu Nov 16 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.MON...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ175-171345-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
350 PM AKST Thu Nov 16 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt becoming S 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ176-171345-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
350 PM AKST Thu Nov 16 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ177-171345-
Adak to Kiska-
350 PM AKST Thu Nov 16 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ178-171345-
Kiska to Attu-
350 PM AKST Thu Nov 16 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...S wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ179-171345-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
350 PM AKST Thu Nov 16 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 50 kt. Seas 28 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 50 kt. Seas 30 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ180-171345-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
350 PM AKST Thu Nov 16 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt becoming SE after midnight. 
Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 50 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SUN...N wind 50 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.MON...N wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ181-171345-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
350 PM AKST Thu Nov 16 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. 
Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt. 
Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt after midnight. 
Seas 7 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 50 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SUN...N wind 50 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ185-171345-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
350 PM AKST Thu Nov 16 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E of Saint Matthew Island, W wind 35 kt. W of Saint
Matthew Island, W wind 30 kt becoming SW 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...S 25 kt W of Saint
Matthew Island. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...E of Saint Matthew Island, SE wind 30 kt. W of Saint
Matthew Island, S wind 30 kt becoming SW 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.SAT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 50 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 50 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

478 
FZAK52 PAFC 171257
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
357 AM AKST Fri Nov 17 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-180200-
357 AM AKST Fri Nov 17 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A front over the western Aleutians and western Bering moves 
eastward to the Alaska Peninsula through Sun morning. High 
pressure dissipates through Sat. 

$$

PKZ150-180200-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
357 AM AKST Fri Nov 17 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 45 kt. Gusts to 60 kt out of bays and passes in the
morning. Seas 16 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. Gusts 
to 50 kts in the evening. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ155-180200-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
357 AM AKST Fri Nov 17 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. From the Shumagin Islands E, NW wind 40 kt
diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt becoming SW 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.MON...N wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ160-180200-
Bristol Bay-
357 AM AKST Fri Nov 17 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt becoming N 15 kt after midnight. Seas 8
ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt becoming SE 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4
ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...N wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...N wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ165-180200-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
357 AM AKST Fri Nov 17 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. From Port Moller E, NW wind 25 kt
diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 50 kt. Seas 33 ft.
.MON...N wind 35 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ170-180200-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
357 AM AKST Fri Nov 17 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 50 kt. Seas 34 ft.
.MON...N wind 40 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ171-180200-
Unalaska Bay-
357 AM AKST Fri Nov 17 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt becoming SW after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 50 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.MON...N wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ172-180200-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
357 AM AKST Fri Nov 17 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 50 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.MON...N wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ173-180200-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
357 AM AKST Fri Nov 17 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ174-180200-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
357 AM AKST Fri Nov 17 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ175-180200-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
357 AM AKST Fri Nov 17 2017

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt becoming NW 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11 ft.
Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ176-180200-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
357 AM AKST Fri Nov 17 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt becoming NW in the afternoon. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ177-180200-
Adak to Kiska-
357 AM AKST Fri Nov 17 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ178-180200-
Kiska to Attu-
357 AM AKST Fri Nov 17 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt becoming NW 20 kt after midnight. Seas
14 ft. Rain.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...S wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ179-180200-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
357 AM AKST Fri Nov 17 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 50 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 50 kt. Seas 31 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ180-180200-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
357 AM AKST Fri Nov 17 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 
12 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt becoming S after midnight. Seas 7 ft.
Rain and snow.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SUN...N wind 50 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.MON...N wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ181-180200-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
357 AM AKST Fri Nov 17 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
9 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt after midnight. Seas 7
ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 50 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SUN...N wind 50 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ185-180200-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
357 AM AKST Fri Nov 17 2017

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...S 15 kt increasing
to 25 kt in the afternoon W of Saint Matthew Island. Seas 9 ft. Rain
and snow.
.TONIGHT...E of Saint Matthew Island, SE wind 30 kt. W of Saint
Matthew Island, S wind 30 kt becoming SW 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E of Saint Matthew Island, SW wind 20 kt becoming W 30 kt
in the afternoon. W of Saint Matthew Island, W wind 30 kt increasing
to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 50 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 50 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
445 PM AKST Wed Nov 15 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
There is a sharp upper level ridge along 155 degrees west
longitude, and another ridge over the central Bering Sea. A trough
over the eastern Bering is moving westward. The associated front
stretches from the Kuskokwim Delta through Bristol Bay and the
Alaska Peninsula. There is a deep upper low over northeast Russia,
and a trough over the eastern Yukon and the Northwest Territories
of Canada. The flow aloft over Southcentral is from the
northwest, and at the surface the offshore gradient is weakening
as the trough approaches from the west.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The numerical models are in fairly good agreement through the
short term portion of the forecast (Friday afternoon). The 12Z
NAM was a bit of an outlier with the system moving through
southern Alaska on Thursday and Thursday night, having the upper
level jet further north than the other models. This would put the
core of the strongest surface winds further north as well, with
stronger winds over and near Kodiak Island. Also, this would
prolong chances of snow furthers into the evening for Anchorage
and other portions of Southcentral. Forecast confidence is thus
near normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist through
tonight. Early Thursday morning a front will move into the area,
dropping conditions to MVFR in snow. Brief IFR conditions are also
possible. Visibility will rise rapidly around noon as the snow
ends, with ceilings only slowly rising.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
After gap winds along the North Gulf Coast will diminish early
this evening, focus will then quickly shift to the upper trough
approaching the area from the west. This trough is still expected
to bring widespread snow throughout Southcentral Thursday morning
(including during the morning rush hour around the Anchorage Bowl
and Matanuska Valley), though the timing was slowed down slightly
based on model trends and how slow precipitation was to develop
over the Southwest Mainland today. Otherwise the expected
accumulations remain light, with most areas receiving 1-3 inches
from the fast moving wave. Most of the snowfall around
Southcentral should diminish by the afternoon, as the upper trough
passes, followed by the evening for the Copper River and Valdez
areas.

The focus then quickly shifts to a weaker upper level wave which
will move through the Gulf beginning Thursday evening. This wave
along with a tightening pressure gradient and cold air advection
will bring widespread gale-storm force winds from the Barren
Islands southward. The strongest of these winds should occur west
of the Barren Islands where widespread storms along with heavy
freezing spray along the coast is expected. This wave will also
bring strong northwesterly winds to Kodiak, especially as the
upper trough and strong winds aloft pass over late Thursday-early
Friday. These strong winds will then spread eastward into the
North Gulf on Friday, where they will continue into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The much-talked about cold front continues its advance across
Southwest Alaska this afternoon, with afternoon observations
placing this feature from near Aniak to Dillingham as of 3 PM. As
with previous thinking, freezing rain appears to have been very
brief along the coast based on the earlier analysis, with a quick
transition to snow to the east. The morning radiosonde data from
Bethel was very interesting as it showed extreme dewpoint
depressions (40 deg. or more at some levels) in the lowest few
thousand feet. This allowed any precipitation to wet-bulb down
temperatures to below freezing once you got away from the coast,
with it taking time for precipitation to saturate the lower levels
of the atmosphere. This was easily seen in the data where some
locations had light snow yet cloud bases were above 6000 feet
initially, before dropping to less than 1000 feet a couple hours
later.

As stated in the previous forecast package, the secondary
disturbance aloft has lagged further behind the front, decreasing
forcing along the front. The lowered snowfall amounts from the
midnight shift were largely kept intact, with the only increase
along the upslope regions of the interior, mainly north and east
of a Bethel to Port Alsworth line, where some of the west facing
slopes will likely see 6 to 10 inches of new snowfall. Otherwise
look for winds to increase near the coast. Taking a closer look at
this area, 850 mb winds increase from current values near 25
knots to over 50 knots by morning. Model cross sections also show
a significant tropopause lowering with the 1.5 PV an surface down
to about 650 mb. What this means for us is in a post frontal and
well-mixed environment, the stronger winds aloft will be enhanced
on their decent to the surface more than they typically would be.
As such, strong wind wording was inserted into the forecast
package for locations near the coast for Thursday into Friday.
Heading into the weekend, after a brief lull in the precipitation,
another system diving southeast through the eastern Bering Sea,
spreading more rain and snow back into coastal locations by
Saturday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
The main item of interest in the short term will be increasing
winds for much of the region. As a cold front continues to clear
the eastern half of the chain and AKPEN, strong upper-level energy
diving southeast will allow for a rapid increase in wind speeds.
This is largely due to the dynamics involved as described above.
Extremely strong wind gusts out of bays will develop south of the
peninsula with some wind gusts above 60 knots east of Chignik, and
50 knots east of False Pass. Communities along the AKPEN will see
wind gusts near 55 mph as well.

Farther west, these wind speeds rapidly diminish the farther west
one goes until you reach western portion of the chain. Here,
another cold front will approach this region with winds increasing
to gale force ahead of the front and widespread rainfall developing.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Sunday through Thursday)...
The upcoming weekend will feature a fast-moving and rapidly
intensifying storm dropping from the northern Bering Sea across
the AKPEN and into the western Gulf. Unfortunately the models
still are not in great agreement on the track of this low, with
the GFS and now the GEM much further south than the more northerly
ECMWF solution. The ECMWF solution would bring a few inches of
snow to much of southcentral Alaska, with potentially higher
amounts of the Kenai Peninsula. Meanwhile, the southerly solutions
would bring no snow to Anchorage, and minimal snow to the Kenai
Peninsula. For now, the afternoon forecast is right down the
middle with a chance of snow as far north as Anchorage, but
suffice it to say as we get closer to the event the chances for
snow around Anchorage will get either much higher or much lower
depending on the ultimate storm track. What we can say with higher
confidence is that this low will be moving very quickly and
strengthening very rapidly - both of which will help winds behind
and to the west of the low center really ramp up. The strongest
winds will develop somewhere over the eastern Bering/Aleutians
before crossing into the north Pacific, and these winds will need
to be watched closely in the next day or so in case a high wind
Watch is necessary.

Once this low drops into the Gulf for the start of next week, a
reinforcing shot of cold air and "outflow" winds along the Gulf
Coast will develop. This should bring a renewed period of sunny
skies and cold northerly winds to most of southern Alaska that
continues through the Thanksgiving holiday as the storm track will
steer storms from the Bering Sea into the southern Gulf.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning...132 136 137 138 150 155 160 165 172 178
                        180 181 185 351 352 411 412 414.
         Storm Warning...130 131.
         Heavy Freezing Spray Warning..130.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DEK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PD
LONG TERM...AD