Gale Warning 524, NWS Anchorage, AK

659 
FZAK52 PAFC 161150
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
350 AM AKDT Mon Oct 16 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-170030-
350 AM AKDT Mon Oct 16 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 987 mb low 70 nm West of Attu moves to 190 nm South of Chignik 
at 969 mb Tue afternoon and continues to 270 nm Southeast of
Kodiak City at 974 mb Wed morning.

$$

PKZ150-170030-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
350 AM AKDT Mon Oct 16 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming SE after midnight. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt becoming NE 30 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 6 ft building to 10 ft in the afternoon. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ155-170030-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
350 AM AKDT Mon Oct 16 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight.
From the Shumagin Islands E, variable wind 10 kt becoming SE 20
kt after midnight. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft building to 14 ft in the
afternoon. Widespread rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ160-170030-
Bristol Bay-
350 AM AKDT Mon Oct 16 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt becoming E after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ165-170030-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
350 AM AKDT Mon Oct 16 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt becoming variable 10 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. From 
Port Moller E, variable wind 10 kt becoming E 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ170-170030-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
350 AM AKDT Mon Oct 16 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt becoming S 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ171-170030-
Unalaska Bay-
350 AM AKDT Mon Oct 16 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 10 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight.
Seas 4 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft building to 7 ft in the afternoon.
Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ172-170030-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
350 AM AKDT Mon Oct 16 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt becoming S 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt becoming W after midnight. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ173-170030-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
350 AM AKDT Mon Oct 16 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt becoming NW 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ174-170030-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
350 AM AKDT Mon Oct 16 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10 
ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt becoming W 35 kt after midnight. Seas 13 ft 
building to 22 ft after midnight. Rain.
.TUE...NW wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 27 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ175-170030-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
350 AM AKDT Mon Oct 16 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 10 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt becoming NW 30 kt after midnight.
Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ176-170030-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
350 AM AKDT Mon Oct 16 2017

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind increasing to 35 kt. Seas 10 ft building to 15 ft in
the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt increasing to 50 kt after midnight.
Seas 31 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...NW wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 30 
ft subsiding to 24 ft in the afternoon.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 25 ft.

$$

PKZ177-170030-
Adak to Kiska-
350 AM AKDT Mon Oct 16 2017

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 40 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Bering side, seas
10 ft. Pacific side, seas 14 ft building to 23 ft in the afternoon. 
Rain.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 50 kt diminishing to 40 kt after midnight.
Seas 17 ft bering side...29 ft pacific side.
.TUE...NW wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 19 
ft subsiding to 14 ft in the afternoon.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...S wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ178-170030-
Kiska to Attu-
350 AM AKDT Mon Oct 16 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt becoming NW 40 kt in the afternoon. Bering 
side, seas 11 ft. Pacific side, seas 14 ft building to 22 ft in the 
afternoon. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 15 ft bering side...22 ft Pacific side.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ179-170030-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
350 AM AKDT Mon Oct 16 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight.
Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ180-170030-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
350 AM AKDT Mon Oct 16 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt becoming E after midnight. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt in the morning increasing to 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ181-170030-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
350 AM AKDT Mon Oct 16 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ185-170030-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
350 AM AKDT Mon Oct 16 2017

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

449 
FZAK52 PAFC 162354
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
354 PM AKDT Mon Oct 16 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-171245-
354 PM AKDT Mon Oct 16 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 978 mb low 170 nm northwest of Adak will move to 100 nm 
southwest of Sand Point at 972 mb Tue morning...then it will move
to 170 nm southeast of Kodiak City at 970 mb by Tue evening. A 
front will advance toward the western Aleutians Wed afternoon. 

$$

PKZ150-171245-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
354 PM AKDT Mon Oct 16 2017

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SE 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ155-171245-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
354 PM AKDT Mon Oct 16 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt becoming SE 40 kt after midnight. From the 
Shumagin Islands E, variable wind 10 kt becoming SE 35 kt after 
midnight. Seas 7 ft building to 11 ft after midnight. Rain.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt becoming N 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 12 ft
building to 17 ft in the afternoon.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ160-171245-
Bristol Bay-
354 PM AKDT Mon Oct 16 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt becoming E 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3
ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ165-171245-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
354 PM AKDT Mon Oct 16 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt becoming E 35 kt after midnight. From
Port Moller E, S wind 15 kt becoming E 25 kt after midnight. Seas 7 
ft. Rain.
.TUE...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ170-171245-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
354 PM AKDT Mon Oct 16 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt becoming N 15 kt after midnight. East of
Dutch Harbor...SE wind 40 kt becoming E 30 kt after midnight. Seas 
10 ft. Rain.
.TUE...N wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ171-171245-
Unalaska Bay-
354 PM AKDT Mon Oct 16 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt becoming variable less than 10 kt after 
midnight. Seas 6 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight. Rain showers.
.TUE...NW wind 10 kt becoming N 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft 
building to 10 ft in the afternoon.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 11 ft subsiding to 7 ft after midnight.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ172-171245-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
354 PM AKDT Mon Oct 16 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt becoming W 25 kt after midnight. Seas 15 
ft. Rain.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Gusts to
50 kt out of bays and passes. Seas 24 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight.
Seas 22 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ173-171245-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
354 PM AKDT Mon Oct 16 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt becoming W 15 kt after midnight. Seas 11 ft.
Rain.
.TUE...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ174-171245-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
354 PM AKDT Mon Oct 16 2017

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft building to 25 ft after 
midnight. Rain.
.TUE...NW wind 50 kt. Seas 30 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft subsiding to 15 ft after 
midnight.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ175-171245-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
354 PM AKDT Mon Oct 16 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt becoming NW 45 kt after midnight. Seas 9
ft building to 14 ft after midnight.
.TUE...NW wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
16 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ176-171245-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
354 PM AKDT Mon Oct 16 2017

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 60 kt. Seas 34 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 50 kt becoming W 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 30 ft
subsiding to 22 ft in the afternoon.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ177-171245-
Adak to Kiska-
354 PM AKDT Mon Oct 16 2017

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 60 kt. Seas 18 ft Bering side...32 ft Pacific 
side.
.TUE...W wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
18 ft subsiding to 13 ft in the afternoon.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...N wind 35 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ178-171245-
Kiska to Attu-
354 PM AKDT Mon Oct 16 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 45 kt becoming W 30 kt after midnight. Seas 20
ft subsiding to 15 ft after midnight.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ179-171245-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
354 PM AKDT Mon Oct 16 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ180-171245-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
354 PM AKDT Mon Oct 16 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt becoming E 20 kt after midnight. Seas 4
ft.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. North of Cape Newenham...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7
ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ181-171245-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
354 PM AKDT Mon Oct 16 2017

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ185-171245-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
354 PM AKDT Mon Oct 16 2017

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
420 AM AKDT Sun Oct 15 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The latest satellite images depicts a series of lows south of the
Aleutians and into southeast AK. The jet stream which is steering
theses lows remains zonal with a 150+ kt core. Over the Gulf of
Alaska, the remnants of an upper level circulation continue to
churn with a surface low near Yakutat. Meanwhile, the latest
ASCAT pass depicts a new low of interest off the northeast coast
of Russia.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

The GFS and the NAM initialized well pinging into the lows near SE
Alaska and NE Russia. Through 24 hrs, the models are in lock step
with the major synoptic features. Beyond that time frame, the
solutions start to diverge with the timing of the next low to
impact the Aleutians and the frontal structure. But all of the
models depict the transition from zonal to meridional flow as the
ridge/trough couplet over the north Pacific evolves.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Clouds are diminishing steadily this morning across the southern
mainland in response to strengthening high pressure to our west.
This has allowed temperatures to drop to near or just a few
degrees below our morning low temperatures from yesterday. Some
localized fog has formed in the Matanuska Valley, but this should
diminish quickly this morning shortly after sunrise. A very nice
day with occasional high clouds will unfold for much of the area.
The exception to this sunshine will be eastern sections of the
Copper River Basin, where clouds will persist for much of the day
associated with the storm centered near Yakutat.

Temperatures tonight will again drop to new seasonal lows for many
locations as cold air and mostly clear skies continue to move
into the area. Some showers may try to move into the Cordova area
as the storm near Yakutat breaks apart and general instability
spreads westward, but nothing significant is expected in the way
of precipitation.

For the start of the week, cold and mostly clear conditions will
continue, though there is some uncertainty with how much mid- and
high- level cloudiness moves into the population centers as a
large and diffuse upper level low begins to set up shop over
northern Cook Inlet. For now, have leaned toward the
clearer/sunnier end of things in the morning forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A decaying area of low pressure over the southern portions of the
Gulf of Anadyr will continue to bring onshore flow that will usher
in moisture and slightly above normal temperatures to the region.
Colder air filtering in aloft will create some steep low-level
lapse rates that will interact with the moisture to create
scattered showers all across Southwest Alaska. Onshore flow will
weaken Monday night which will allow temperatures to slowly cool
off to more normal temperatures midweek while shower activity
diminishes with a drier pattern engulfing the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

The Bering Sea will continue to see an active period of weather
thanks to the placement of the arctic jet which is situated along
the Aleutian Islands. Due to the location of the jet, any
shortwave propagating the longwave pattern will spin up across
the northern Pacific Ocean or Southern Bering Sea. Saying this,
two disturbances are slated to move across the southern Bering Sea
through the day 3 period (Tuesday). The first is an open wave
with a weak surface reflection that is currently located just to
the west of Adak. This wave will intensity into a closed low this
afternoon with 20 to 30 kt winds and some light to moderate
rainfall being observed across the central and eastern Aleutians.
The more potent low will move near Shemya late Sunday night around
992 mb and will strengthen as it moves across the Aleutian Chain
through Tuesday. At this time, it looks like some storm force
winds will be possible south of Adak Monday night. There does
appear that there will be some subtropical influences so there
could be some fairly heavy rainfall that falls along the Aleutians
on Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The mid and long term forecast, starting Monday night, will have
a storm track south of mainland Alaska. This setup will have a
series of lows moving across the Aleutians but staying south of
the mainland. There is somewhat decent agreement amongst the
models with these lows but exact placement and intensity is still
a struggle. For the southern mainland, this pattern would leave
the area in primarily cold, dry outflow for much of the week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...GALE 413...175-178.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PJS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AD
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MC
LONG TERM...DK