Gale Warning 477, NWS Anchorage, AK

943 
FZAK62 PAFC 152341
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
341 PM AKDT Sun Oct 15 2017

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-161230-
341 PM AKDT Sun Oct 15 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 1006 mb low at 53N 172W will move near 53N 163W and dissipate 
by Mon morning. A 991 mb low near 52N 169E will move to 53N 179W 
at 982 mb by Mon evening...it will then move near 53N 157W at 974 
mb by Tue evening.

$$

PKZ411-161230-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
341 PM AKDT Sun Oct 15 2017

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...E to N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft. Rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...W wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.

$$

PKZ412-161230-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
341 PM AKDT Sun Oct 15 2017

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.TUE...N wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ413-161230-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
341 PM AKDT Sun Oct 15 2017

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...E to N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.WED...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.
.THU...NE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft.

$$

PKZ414-161230-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
341 PM AKDT Sun Oct 15 2017

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SW wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

922 
FZAK62 PAFC 161148
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
348 AM AKDT Mon Oct 16 2017

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-170130-
348 AM AKDT Mon Oct 16 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 987 mb low at 53N 172E moves to 54N 159W at 969 mb Tue 
afternoon and continues to 55N 148W at 974 mb Wed morning.

$$

PKZ411-170130-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
348 AM AKDT Mon Oct 16 2017

.TODAY...SE wind 10 to 25 kt becoming NE in the afternoon.
Seas 5 to 10 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.

$$

PKZ412-170130-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
348 AM AKDT Mon Oct 16 2017

.TODAY...S wind 10 to 20 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.THU...NE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ413-170130-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
348 AM AKDT Mon Oct 16 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft. Widespread rain
showers.
.TUE...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.WED...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.THU...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft.

$$

PKZ414-170130-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
348 AM AKDT Mon Oct 16 2017

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft. Widespread rain
showers.
.TUE...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

194 
FZAK62 PAFC 162347
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
347 PM AKDT Mon Oct 16 2017

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-171300-
347 PM AKDT Mon Oct 16 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 978 mb low at 54N 180E will move to 55N 163W at 972 mb Tue
morning...then it will move to 55N 150W at 970 mb by Tue evening.
A front will advance toward the western Aleutians Wed afternoon. 

$$

PKZ411-171300-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
347 PM AKDT Mon Oct 16 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.

$$

PKZ412-171300-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
347 PM AKDT Mon Oct 16 2017

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...NE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ413-171300-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
347 PM AKDT Mon Oct 16 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.WED...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.

$$

PKZ414-171300-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
347 PM AKDT Mon Oct 16 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

076 
FZAK62 PAFC 170111 AAA
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast...UPDATED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
511 PM AKDT Mon Oct 16 2017

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-171415-
511 PM AKDT Mon Oct 16 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 978 mb low at 54N 180E will move to 55N 163W at 972 mb Tue
morning...then it will move to 55N 150W at 970 mb by Tue evening.
A front will advance toward the western Aleutians Wed afternoon. 

$$

PKZ411-171415-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
511 PM AKDT Mon Oct 16 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.

$$

PKZ412-171415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
511 PM AKDT Mon Oct 16 2017

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft. 
.TUE...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...NE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ413-171415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
511 PM AKDT Mon Oct 16 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE to NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft. 
.TUE...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. 
.WED...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. 
.THU...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.

$$

PKZ414-171415-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
511 PM AKDT Mon Oct 16 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Rain showers. 
.TUE...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

636 
FZAK62 PAFC 171126
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
326 AM AKDT Tue Oct 17 2017

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-180045-
326 AM AKDT Tue Oct 17 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 976 mb low at 54N 165W moves to 54N 149W at 968 mb Wed morning.
A 974 mb Kamchatka low will move to 51N 169E at 988 mb Thu morning.

$$

PKZ411-180045-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
326 AM AKDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.TODAY...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ412-180045-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
326 AM AKDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.TODAY...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ413-180045-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
326 AM AKDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.TODAY...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ414-180045-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
326 AM AKDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.TODAY...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
403 PM AKDT Sat Oct 14 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
Similar to yesterday, the upper level low is anchored over eastern
Russia with westerly flow across the Bering Sea. The jet stream
remains west to east from Asia to just south of the Aleutians
running from 150 kt to 165 kt at the 250 mb height. It then
decreases in speed and bends northeast over the Gulf of Alaska and
into Southeast Alaska. At the surface, a low is rapidly moving
eastward and is currently south of Kodiak Island. Another low is
rapidly developing a little east of this low and is in the
favorable location of the left front exit region of the jet stream
which will allow it to become the main low overnight as the
original low dissipates.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models have converged on a very reasonable solution for the low in
the Gulf of Alaska. The very prominent one, as seen on satellite
this afternoon, will be absorbed into a rapidly developing low
that is a little to the east of this low. The path the new low
takes into the northeast Gulf and then inland near Yakutat is
also similar on all models. The rest of the weekend shows good
agreement with most details...and then Monday arrives in the
Bering Sea. On Monday there is agreement on a large low moving
along the Aleutians from west to east but the structure is
different between models. The low will likely elongate in a
similar manner to the one in the Gulf tonight. However, the ECMWF
is keeping the energy consolidated in a single stronger center
which does not look to be as likely a solution in the current
pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist. Mid to high
level clouds over the area will prevent and fog or stratus from
developing overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Mild conditions will continue across much of Southcentral Alaska
through tonight, as the upper level trough and associated surface
features quickly track through the Gulf. The developing surface
low tracking through the eastern Bering tonight will track far
enough to the east, where precipitation impacts will remain
confined to the Gulf and northern Gulf coast this evening.

By Sunday morning, the low will have pushed into the northern
Panhandle, establishing a drier offshore flow pattern over the
area through the beginning of next week. This will set up
favorable pressure gradients for renewed offshore/outflow winds,
especially with the first deep cold airmass of the season making
continued progress southward through the Alaska Range. Thus,
expect gusty outflow winds to develop along the typical gaps
surrounding the northern Gulf and Prince William Sound area
overnight tonight. However, the interior areas will see light
northwest winds and continued dry conditions throughout the
weekend, with increasing amounts of sunshine breaking out during
the day Sunday. With clearing skies and a cooling airmass,
temperatures Sunday night will likely be the coldest of the season
so far at most locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2...Sun and Mon)...
The main area of low pressure will pull away into the Gulf of AK
leaving the area in slightly cooler and showery conditions. The
surface low itself is just south of Kodiak Island this evening and
moving quickly to the east. Numerous wrap-around showers continue
to linger across the southwest mainland and the eastern portion of
the Alaska Peninsula. As weak high pressure starts to slide
towards the area from the eastern Bering, a weak band of
precipitation will get "trapped" stretching from the northern YK
Delta down through Port Heiden. Otherwise, showers will taper off
across the area, persisting along northwest facing slopes the
longest. Weak westerly flow will set up across much of the
mainland tonight. This will allow fog to develop right around dawn
for places like Bethel and the Bristol Bay coastline. Isolated showers
will continue into Monday as some slightly colder temperatures
spread into the area. There will be another chance for fog on
Monday morning, though it is expected to be much less dense and
more isolated.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2...Sun and
Mon)...
After last week, the Bering is in for a much quieter start to this
upcoming week. We will start things out with broad westerly (most
sub-small craft) flow for most of the area. This will actually
make for rather fair conditions for much of the time, with just
isolated showers bringing brief periods of rain and some gusty
winds. One weak, compact low will track from Shemya late this
evening to Dutch Harbor by Sun evening. It will then weaken and
fall apart as it skirts the southern portion of the Alaska
Peninsula on Mon. A bigger, stronger area of low pressure will
strengthen as it approaches the Western Aleutians late Sun. This
will bring the next round of gales to the area early Mon spreading
to the Central Aleutians by midday. The exact track of this low
remains somewhat uncertain, but if it brings down enough cold air,
it could produce some storm-force winds on its western flank into
Tue. This system will also hug the Aleutian chain (versus going
into the central Bering like the storms of early October).

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The mid and long term forecast, starting Monday night, will have
a storm track south of mainland Alaska. This setup will have a
series of lows moving across the Aleutians but staying south of
the mainland. There is somewhat decent agreement amongst the
models with these lows but exact placement and intensity is still
a struggle. For the southern mainland, this pattern would leave
the area in primarily cold, dry outflow for much of the week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...TP
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MSO
LONG TERM...DK