Gale Warning 499, NWS Anchorage, AK

924 
FZAK51 PAFC 041148
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
348 AM AKDT Wed Oct 4 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-050100-
348 AM AKDT Wed Oct 4 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 1006 mb low 175 nm southeast of Kodiak City will quickly move 
into Prince William Sound and then weaken inland tonight. A weak 
trough of low pressure will remain over the southern Gulf of 
Alaska before a front moves into the western Gulf of Alaska Wed 
night.

$$

PKZ119-050100-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
348 AM AKDT Wed Oct 4 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Near the coast, SE wind 20 kt becoming S 10 kt
in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
8 ft. Rain.
.THU...S wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
13 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ120-050100-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
348 AM AKDT Wed Oct 4 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming S 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.THU...S wind 30 kt becoming W 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 12 ft.
Rain.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ121-050100-
Resurrection Bay-
348 AM AKDT Wed Oct 4 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt becoming N 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3
ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ125-050100-
Prince William Sound-
348 AM AKDT Wed Oct 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt diminishing to 10 kt by late morning. Seas 6
ft subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft building to 6 ft after midnight. Widespread rain showers.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-050100-
Port Valdez-
348 AM AKDT Wed Oct 4 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain
showers.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread
rain showers.
.THU...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-050100-
Valdez Narrows-
348 AM AKDT Wed Oct 4 2017

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-050100-
Valdez Arm-
348 AM AKDT Wed Oct 4 2017

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Near the southern entrance, SE wind 20 kt becoming variable 10
kt or less by late morning. Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt becoming Variable wind 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-050100-
Passage Canal-
348 AM AKDT Wed Oct 4 2017

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt becoming variable less than 10 kt by late
morning. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft. Rain.
.THU...E wind 20 kt becoming Variable wind 15 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-050100-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
348 AM AKDT Wed Oct 4 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
5 ft building to 12 ft after midnight. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ131-050100-
Barren Islands East-
348 AM AKDT Wed Oct 4 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...W wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ132-050100-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
348 AM AKDT Wed Oct 4 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas
7 ft building to 12 ft after midnight. Rain.
.THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...W wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ136-050100-
Chiniak Bay-
348 AM AKDT Wed Oct 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 10 kt becoming S 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2
ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
4 ft. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-050100-
Marmot Bay-
348 AM AKDT Wed Oct 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft building to 7 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ138-050100-
Shelikof Strait-
348 AM AKDT Wed Oct 4 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ139-050100-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
348 AM AKDT Wed Oct 4 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas
4 ft building to 8 ft after midnight. Rain.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ140-050100-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
348 AM AKDT Wed Oct 4 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Rain.
.THU...E wind 10 kt becoming S 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft
building to 4 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ141-050100-
Kachemak Bay-
348 AM AKDT Wed Oct 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft building to 4 ft after midnight. Rain.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

901 
FZAK51 PAFC 042312
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
312 PM AKDT Wed Oct 4 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-051145-
312 PM AKDT Wed Oct 4 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A strong front will enter the western Gulf tonight then move to 
the eastern Gulf Thu afternoon. A 990 mb low will develop along 
the front 40 nm south of Seward Thu morning then move inland near 
Valdez Thu afternoon. A trough of low pressure will remain over the 
northern Gulf Thu through Fri. 

$$

PKZ119-051145-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
312 PM AKDT Wed Oct 4 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
8 ft. Rain.
.THU...S wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
13 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ120-051145-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
312 PM AKDT Wed Oct 4 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming S 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.THU...S wind 30 kt becoming W 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 12 ft.
Rain.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...W wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ121-051145-
Resurrection Bay-
312 PM AKDT Wed Oct 4 2017

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU...S wind 20 kt becoming N 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft.
Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 10 kt becoming N after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ125-051145-
Prince William Sound-
312 PM AKDT Wed Oct 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft building to 4 ft after midnight. Rain showers.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 7 ft in the afternoon.
Rain.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-051145-
Port Valdez-
312 PM AKDT Wed Oct 4 2017

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-051145-
Valdez Narrows-
312 PM AKDT Wed Oct 4 2017

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-051145-
Valdez Arm-
312 PM AKDT Wed Oct 4 2017

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-051145-
Passage Canal-
312 PM AKDT Wed Oct 4 2017

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft. Rain.
.THU...E wind 20 kt becoming Variable wind 15 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-051145-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
312 PM AKDT Wed Oct 4 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
5 ft building to 12 ft after midnight. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt becoming W 40 kt after midnight. Seas
11 ft.
.FRI...W wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-051145-
Barren Islands East-
312 PM AKDT Wed Oct 4 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft building to 10 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ132-051145-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
312 PM AKDT Wed Oct 4 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas
7 ft building to 12 ft after midnight. Rain.
.THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.FRI...W wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ136-051145-
Chiniak Bay-
312 PM AKDT Wed Oct 4 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
4 ft. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
4 ft building to 7 ft after midnight.
.FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-051145-
Marmot Bay-
312 PM AKDT Wed Oct 4 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft building to 7 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
8 ft.
.FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ138-051145-
Shelikof Strait-
312 PM AKDT Wed Oct 4 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ139-051145-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
312 PM AKDT Wed Oct 4 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas
5 ft building to 8 ft after midnight. Rain.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-051145-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
312 PM AKDT Wed Oct 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 5 
ft subsiding to 3 ft. Rain.
.THU...E wind 10 kt becoming S 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft
building to 5 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-051145-
Kachemak Bay-
312 PM AKDT Wed Oct 4 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt increasing to SE 25 kt after midnight. Seas 
2 ft building to 5 ft after midnight. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt becoming W 35 kt after midnight. Seas 7 
ft building to 11 ft after midnight.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
459 AM AKDT Tue Oct 3 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A fairly active pattern continued over much of Southcentral and
western Alaska today. A surface front lingering over much of
southwest Alaska continues to spread rain across much of the area,
while a surface low tracking northward into the Gulf will begin
to enhance the rainfall along the northern Gulf coast and
southcentral Alaska today. Further west over the Bering Sea and
Aleutians, there is a weakening frontal band tracking into the
eastern Bering and Aleutians associated with a low entering the
northwestern Bering. Westerly gale force gusts are starting to be
observed over the western half over the Bering and Aleutians.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The models remain in general synoptic agreement, with some minor
differences in timing an intensity with the low and associated
front tracking through the Bering/Aleutians today through
Wednesday. It seems reasonable as the two main features which
affect alaska develop under fairly strong upper jets. The first
feature traveling north into the Gulf today appears best captured
by the NAM/GFS models. The next big storm moving across the Bering
Sea today through Thursday is also best captured by the NAM/GFS,
bringing strong winds and higher seas to much of the Bering and
Aleutians..

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will continue through today, but will likely drop
to marginal VFR conditions (3500ft) this afternoon as rain begins
to fall over the Anchorage bowl.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A low developing over the southern Gulf will move northeast today
and reach the Gulf coast this evening and move inland tonight. The
"atmospheric river" holding most of the moisture will push into
the panhandle, but the occluded portion of the front will bring a
brief bout of rain into Southcentral later today into tonight. The
low will push inland Wednesday morning, but showers will remain as
the associated upper trough moves through the area from the
southwest. The next front to impact the area will arrive from the
west Wednesday night. This front is associated with a large and
powerful low over the eastern Bering Sea. This front will rapidly
cross Southcentral on Thursday, with a triple-point low forming
near Kodiak Thursday morning that moves inland near Cordova
Thursday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The forecast begins on Tuesday as the remnants of a surface low
over the Kuskokwim Delta continues to dissipate while slowly
drifting north. Showers will continue through the day over most of
SW Alaska as the low departs before a shortwave ridge moves in
tonight between systems leading to a quick break in precipitation.

Beginning Wednesday, a strong triple point low pressure system
developing over the Bering begins to approach the mainland. A warm
front out ahead of the low will reach the coast by Wednesday
afternoon spreading a wide swath of heavy rain across the area. A
low level southerly jet will accompany the front bringing strong
winds across the area, with winds between 30-40 mph and gusts up
to 50 mph, especially along the coast on Wednesday evening. A
strong cold front will follow closely behind the warm front
reaching the coast by Wednesday night. Cold air advection on the
backside of the low will aid in mixing down stronger winds to the
surface, leading to wind gusts up to 60 mph along the coast. A
long fetch of strong westerly winds will also lead to increased
surge and the potential of minor coastal flooding and beach
erosion. Right now, the highest potential for flooding looks to be
for locations along Kuskokwim Bay, including Quinhagak and
Goodnews Bay, where water levels could be 2-3 feet above high
astronomical tide (grass level) on Thursday. See SPS issued
yesterday for more information.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
A low over the Western Bering will dissipate today as a secondary
low forms just west of Shemya this afternoon. A very strong 190
kt zonal jet will set up over the southern Bering Wednesday
leading to rapid cyclogenesis of the low, with numerous model
solutions depicting a minimum central pressure of around 960 mb by
Wednesday night. The low will traverse across the Northern Bering
on Wednesday drawing cold air south on the backside of the low,
leading to strong storm force winds mixing down to the surface
over the Pribilofs by early Thursday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The extended forecast period begins Wednesday night. The dominant
weather maker will be a strong storm force low over the Northern
Bering Sea with the associated gale force front moving inland
across Southwest Alaska and the into Southcentral during the day
Thursday. Eventually strong gale to low end storm force winds are
expected to move toward the Southwest coast on the back side of
the strong surface low. Expect the potential for coastal erosion
and high surf conditions across parts of the Southwest coast given
the strength of the low and the length of the wind fetch. See the
Special Weather Statement regarding this aspect of the latter
week Bering Sea storm.

Eventually the low and associated front will quickly weaken and
de-amplify, with the general upper air pattern becoming a fast
westerly regime aloft. What this means is by Friday, precipitation
will generally become more favored along the mountains with more
showery/drier conditions for lower elevation regions. By Saturday
evening, another low moving toward the Gulf of Alaska will bring
another shot of rain to parts of Southern Alaska, but much
uncertainty exists with this low as the ECMWF favors a faster and
farther east solution compared to the GFS and Canadian models. For
now, a WPC blend approach was favored by Sunday and Monday as
model uncertainty regarding a potential re-amplification of the
upper flow pattern becomes disparate among the global models.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning 119 155 165 170 172>181 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PEPE
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KVP
LONG TERM...JA