Gale Warning 467, NWS Anchorage, AK

500 
FZAK61 PAFC 041146
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
346 AM AKDT Wed Oct 4 2017

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-050200-
346 AM AKDT Wed Oct 4 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 1006 mb low at 55N 150W will quickly move into Prince William 
Sound and then weaken inland tonight. A weak trough of low 
pressure will remain over the southern Gulf of Alaska before a 
front moves into the western Gulf of Alaska Wed night.

$$

PKZ351-050200-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
346 AM AKDT Wed Oct 4 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft building to 13 ft in
the afternoon. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 18 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 21 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ352-050200-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
346 AM AKDT Wed Oct 4 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt increasing to 20 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 19 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.

$$

252 
FZAK61 PAFC 042258
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
258 PM AKDT Wed Oct 4 2017

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-051330-
258 PM AKDT Wed Oct 4 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A strong front will enter the western Gulf tonight then move to 
the eastern Gulf Thu afternoon. A 990 mb low will develop along 
the front near 60N 150W Thu morning then move inland near 61N 
147W Thu afternoon. A trough of low pressure will remain over the 
northern Gulf Thu through Fri. 

$$

PKZ351-051330-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
258 PM AKDT Wed Oct 4 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 14 to 19 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 17 to 22 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 21 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ352-051330-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
258 PM AKDT Wed Oct 4 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt increasing to 20 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 7 to 11 ft. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 20 ft.
.FRI...W wind 40 kt. Seas 17 to 24 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

410 
FZAK61 PAFC 051156
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
356 AM AKDT Thu Oct 5 2017

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-060045-
356 AM AKDT Thu Oct 5 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A strong front move across the Gulf into today. A trough of low 
pressure will remain over the northern Gulf tonight through Fri
night.

$$

PKZ351-060045-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
356 AM AKDT Thu Oct 5 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 21 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 18 to 23 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ352-060045-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
356 AM AKDT Thu Oct 5 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.FRI...W wind 45 kt. Seas 21 to 26 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 26 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

297 
FZAK61 PAFC 052339
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
339 PM AKDT Thu Oct 5 2017

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-061415-
339 PM AKDT Thu Oct 5 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A front along the northern Gulf coast will move inland and weaken 
this evening. A 985 mb low at 60N 146W will move inland tonight 
near 60N 143W at 986 mb. A trough of low pressure will persist
along the northern Gulf through Fri night. A front will approach
the southwest Gulf Sat afternoon.


$$

PKZ351-061415-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
339 PM AKDT Thu Oct 5 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 21 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 17 to 22 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 21 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ352-061415-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
339 PM AKDT Thu Oct 5 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft.
.FRI...W wind 45 kt. Seas 22 to 26 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 15 to 25 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

235 
FZAK61 PAFC 061148
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
348 AM AKDT Fri Oct 6 2017

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-070045-
348 AM AKDT Fri Oct 6 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 994 mb low at 55N 162W Sat afternoon will move into the 
southwestern Gulf Sat night, then to 58N 153W at 988 mb Sun 
morning.

$$

PKZ351-070045-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
348 AM AKDT Fri Oct 6 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 21 ft.
Isolated thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 20 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 29 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ352-070045-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
348 AM AKDT Fri Oct 6 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 35 to 45 kt. Seas 21 to 25 ft. 
Isolated thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 15 to 25 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 31 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

985 
FZAK61 PAFC 062256
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
256 PM AKDT Fri Oct 6 2017

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-071245-
256 PM AKDT Fri Oct 6 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A trough of low pressure along the northern Gulf coast will weaken
through Sat morning. A front will move into the southwestern Gulf
Sat morning and will move to the eastern Gulf Sun morning. The
associated 988 mb Aleutian low mb enters the western Gulf Sat 
night at 58N 152W and then moves to 60N 146W Sun afternoon at 
990 mb.

$$

PKZ351-071245-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
256 PM AKDT Fri Oct 6 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 19 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt becoming S 25 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 7 to 10 ft building to 9 to 17 ft after midnight.
Rain.
.SUN...SW wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 28 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 17 to 26 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ352-071245-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
256 PM AKDT Fri Oct 6 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt increasing to 30 to 45 kt after
midnight. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Rain.
.SUN...W wind 35 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 31 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 26 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 19 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

319 
FZAK61 PAFC 071144
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
344 AM AKDT Sat Oct 7 2017

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-080045-
344 AM AKDT Sat Oct 7 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A strong front will move into the southwestern Gulf today,
crossing to the northeastern Gulf through Sun morning. A 986 mb 
Aleutian low at 58N 152W and will move to 60N 146W at 991 mb by 
Sun afternoon then move to 59N 143W at 1001 mb by Mon morning.

$$

PKZ351-080045-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
344 AM AKDT Sat Oct 7 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 to 30 kt becoming 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
9 to 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt increasing to 35 to 45 kt after
midnight. Seas 7 to 11 ft building to 11 to 19 ft after midnight.
Rain.
.SUN...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 17 to 28 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 17 to 25 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ352-080045-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
344 AM AKDT Sat Oct 7 2017

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt becoming SW 35 to 50 kt after
midnight. Seas 9 to 16 ft building to 15 to 23 ft after midnight.
.SUN...W wind 35 to 45 kt. Seas 18 to 28 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 17 to 24 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
459 AM AKDT Tue Oct 3 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A fairly active pattern continued over much of Southcentral and
western Alaska today. A surface front lingering over much of
southwest Alaska continues to spread rain across much of the area,
while a surface low tracking northward into the Gulf will begin
to enhance the rainfall along the northern Gulf coast and
southcentral Alaska today. Further west over the Bering Sea and
Aleutians, there is a weakening frontal band tracking into the
eastern Bering and Aleutians associated with a low entering the
northwestern Bering. Westerly gale force gusts are starting to be
observed over the western half over the Bering and Aleutians.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The models remain in general synoptic agreement, with some minor
differences in timing an intensity with the low and associated
front tracking through the Bering/Aleutians today through
Wednesday. It seems reasonable as the two main features which
affect alaska develop under fairly strong upper jets. The first
feature traveling north into the Gulf today appears best captured
by the NAM/GFS models. The next big storm moving across the Bering
Sea today through Thursday is also best captured by the NAM/GFS,
bringing strong winds and higher seas to much of the Bering and
Aleutians..

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will continue through today, but will likely drop
to marginal VFR conditions (3500ft) this afternoon as rain begins
to fall over the Anchorage bowl.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A low developing over the southern Gulf will move northeast today
and reach the Gulf coast this evening and move inland tonight. The
"atmospheric river" holding most of the moisture will push into
the panhandle, but the occluded portion of the front will bring a
brief bout of rain into Southcentral later today into tonight. The
low will push inland Wednesday morning, but showers will remain as
the associated upper trough moves through the area from the
southwest. The next front to impact the area will arrive from the
west Wednesday night. This front is associated with a large and
powerful low over the eastern Bering Sea. This front will rapidly
cross Southcentral on Thursday, with a triple-point low forming
near Kodiak Thursday morning that moves inland near Cordova
Thursday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The forecast begins on Tuesday as the remnants of a surface low
over the Kuskokwim Delta continues to dissipate while slowly
drifting north. Showers will continue through the day over most of
SW Alaska as the low departs before a shortwave ridge moves in
tonight between systems leading to a quick break in precipitation.

Beginning Wednesday, a strong triple point low pressure system
developing over the Bering begins to approach the mainland. A warm
front out ahead of the low will reach the coast by Wednesday
afternoon spreading a wide swath of heavy rain across the area. A
low level southerly jet will accompany the front bringing strong
winds across the area, with winds between 30-40 mph and gusts up
to 50 mph, especially along the coast on Wednesday evening. A
strong cold front will follow closely behind the warm front
reaching the coast by Wednesday night. Cold air advection on the
backside of the low will aid in mixing down stronger winds to the
surface, leading to wind gusts up to 60 mph along the coast. A
long fetch of strong westerly winds will also lead to increased
surge and the potential of minor coastal flooding and beach
erosion. Right now, the highest potential for flooding looks to be
for locations along Kuskokwim Bay, including Quinhagak and
Goodnews Bay, where water levels could be 2-3 feet above high
astronomical tide (grass level) on Thursday. See SPS issued
yesterday for more information.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
A low over the Western Bering will dissipate today as a secondary
low forms just west of Shemya this afternoon. A very strong 190
kt zonal jet will set up over the southern Bering Wednesday
leading to rapid cyclogenesis of the low, with numerous model
solutions depicting a minimum central pressure of around 960 mb by
Wednesday night. The low will traverse across the Northern Bering
on Wednesday drawing cold air south on the backside of the low,
leading to strong storm force winds mixing down to the surface
over the Pribilofs by early Thursday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The extended forecast period begins Wednesday night. The dominant
weather maker will be a strong storm force low over the Northern
Bering Sea with the associated gale force front moving inland
across Southwest Alaska and the into Southcentral during the day
Thursday. Eventually strong gale to low end storm force winds are
expected to move toward the Southwest coast on the back side of
the strong surface low. Expect the potential for coastal erosion
and high surf conditions across parts of the Southwest coast given
the strength of the low and the length of the wind fetch. See the
Special Weather Statement regarding this aspect of the latter
week Bering Sea storm.

Eventually the low and associated front will quickly weaken and
de-amplify, with the general upper air pattern becoming a fast
westerly regime aloft. What this means is by Friday, precipitation
will generally become more favored along the mountains with more
showery/drier conditions for lower elevation regions. By Saturday
evening, another low moving toward the Gulf of Alaska will bring
another shot of rain to parts of Southern Alaska, but much
uncertainty exists with this low as the ECMWF favors a faster and
farther east solution compared to the GFS and Canadian models. For
now, a WPC blend approach was favored by Sunday and Monday as
model uncertainty regarding a potential re-amplification of the
upper flow pattern becomes disparate among the global models.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning 119 155 165 170 172>181 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PEPE
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KVP
LONG TERM...JA