Gale Warning 485, NWS Anchorage, AK

196 
FZAK62 PAFC 251212
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
412 AM AKDT Wed Oct 25 2017

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-260315-
412 AM AKDT Wed Oct 25 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 956 mb low at 52N 176W Wed morning will move to 55N 165W at 980
mb Thu morning, and then to 64N 165W at 990 mb Fri morning. A 
Kamchatka low will deepen to 989 mb and move to 52N 167E Fri 
morning, with a front moving north from the western Aleutians into
the western Bering Sea.

$$

PKZ411-260315-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
412 AM AKDT Wed Oct 25 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 21 to 30 ft. Rain. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 to 35 kt diminishing to 10 to 25 kt after
midnight. Seas 15 to 23 ft. 
.THU...NE wind up to 20 kt becoming E 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 10 to 14 ft. Rain showers. 
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ412-260315-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
412 AM AKDT Wed Oct 25 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N to E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 18 to 29 ft. Rain. Isolated
 thunderstorms in the morning.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 to 40 kt diminishing to 20 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 14 to 22 ft. 
.THU...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ413-260315-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
412 AM AKDT Wed Oct 25 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N to E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 25 ft. Rain. Isolated
thunderstorms in the morning.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft. 
.THU...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ414-260315-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
412 AM AKDT Wed Oct 25 2017

.TODAY...S to E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 19 ft. 
Rain. Isolated thunderstorms in the morning.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft. 
.THU...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

045 
FZAK62 PAFC 252347
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
347 PM AKDT Wed Oct 25 2017

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-261315-
347 PM AKDT Wed Oct 25 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 970 mb low near 53N 168W weakens to 985 mb as moves to near 61N
166W Thu afternoon then continues to weaken to 994 mb as it moves
north of the Bering Strait Fri. A 990 mb low develops near 53N 
168E Thu night and tracks to 40N 170E at 998 mb Fri afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-261315-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
347 PM AKDT Wed Oct 25 2017

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.THU...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 14 ft. Widespread rain and
snow showers.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ412-261315-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
347 PM AKDT Wed Oct 25 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 to 40 kt diminishing to 15 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.THU...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind up to 20 kt becoming E after midnight. Seas
9 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.FRI...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.MON...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ413-261315-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
347 PM AKDT Wed Oct 25 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft. Widespread rain
showers.
.FRI...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.MON...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ414-261315-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
347 PM AKDT Wed Oct 25 2017

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.THU...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.SUN...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

862 
FZAK62 PAFC 261137
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
337 AM AKDT Thu Oct 26 2017

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-270045-
337 AM AKDT Thu Oct 26 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 979 mb low near 55N 165W Thu morning moves to 988 mb near 62N 
167W Fri morning then to 1002 mb near 64N 165W by Sat morning.

A 985 mb low over the Kamchatka Peninsula Thu morning moves to 
990 mb near 54N 174E Fri morning then to 1001 mb near 54N 179E 
Sat morning.

$$

PKZ411-270045-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
337 AM AKDT Thu Oct 26 2017

.TODAY...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 14 ft. Widespread rain and
snow showers.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft. Widespread rain
showers.
.FRI...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ412-270045-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
337 AM AKDT Thu Oct 26 2017

.TODAY...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind up to 20 kt becoming E after midnight. Seas 8
ft. Rain showers.
.FRI...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ413-270045-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
337 AM AKDT Thu Oct 26 2017

.TODAY...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.FRI...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.MON...NE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ414-270045-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
337 AM AKDT Thu Oct 26 2017

.TODAY...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
459 PM AKDT Tue Oct 24 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
Water Vapor satellite imagery shows the parent upper low along
the Kuskokwim Delta this morning, is now moving north across the
Bering Strait. A sharp negatively tilted trough axis associated
with this low is lifting across the Kenai and central Gulf of
Alaska. A broad area of low pressure associated with this system
is supporting rain along the Gulf. This is bringing a mix of snow
and rain along the Kenai and snow along a sharp axis that
stretches along western Cook Inlet to western Susitna Valley.
Gusty winds developed late this morning with a tighter pressure
gradient along this axis.

To the west, the extratropical storm system across the western
Bering picked up eastward momentum early this afternoon with gusty
winds and rain along the leading boundary which moved across to
the central Bering and eastern Aleutians.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are in good synoptic agreement with the overall pattern
shift. The NAM was primarily used to update the short term
forecast with some use of the GFS across Southcentral and the
Gulf. The impacts through Thursday include precipitation amounts
and type, gusty winds, and warming trends.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Some snow showers will persist in the area through the
night but generally VFR conditions will exist through the night
and into tomorrow. Winds will shift to the southeast by morning
with gusts developing as the pressure gradient increases along
Turnagain Arm.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

A negatively-tilted trough over the Kenai Peninsula will lift
northeastward tonight, spreading precipitation northward. The
heaviest precipitation associated with this system will fall along
the northern Gulf Coast as a rain/snow mix and as snow in the
western and northern portions of the Susitna Valley through the
evening hours. The western Kenai Peninsula, Anchorage area, and
Matanuska Valley will continue to see gusty southeasterly winds
this evening that will downslope out precipitation, keeping
conditions mainly dry. Overnight, expect winds to briefly taper
off, opening up Anchorage to the possibility of some overnight
snow showers.

A gale force front will move into the southwestern Gulf this
evening and move to the central Gulf/northern Gulf Coast by
Wednesday afternoon. This system has a long, southwesterly fetch
of moisture and warm air associated with it, so expect snow to
transition to rain throughout the day for lower elevations. The
northern Gulf Coast will see a prolonged period of rain Wednesday
morning through Thursday. Slightly further inland, gusty
southeasterly winds will ramp up once again along the Chugach
Mountains throughout the afternoon hours Wednesday and Thursday,
subsiding during the overnight hours. This will once again have
the effect of downsloping out the majority of the precipitation
in the lee of the Chugach Mountains. In addition to the gusty
winds and prolonged period of rain along the coast, expect
temperatures over most areas to climb into the 40s by midweek with
snow levels rapidly rising.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Wind and cloud cover will rapidly increase this evening as a
strong frontal system moves ashore this evening. Radar returns
show precipitation spreading NE towards the coast, already
showing up at Cape Newenham in the form of rain. As the warm front
continues to track inland snow will initially fall before quickly
changing over to rain along the coast. A quick 1-2" could
accumulate close to the coast before the transition while
locations further up the Kuskokwim River Valley could see 3-4"
through tonight. Higher accumulations will likely be seen in the
elevated terrain above 2000' through tomorrow morning before snow
levels further rise throughout the day. Another impact from this
system will be in the form of strong southerly winds over Bristol
Bay and along the coast, with gusts up to 50 mph expected before
midnight tonight. Winds and precip will subside Wednesday as the
warm front pushes off to the east. As the low center moves into
Bristol Bay Thursday morning, southerly winds will pick up again
and another round of precip will move inland, though warm air will
keep precipitation in the liquid form for all low elevation
locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

A very strong 940 mb low currently centered near Attu will
continue to wreck havoc across the Bering and Aleutians over the
next 24-36 hours with heavy precipitation and very strong winds.
A stout warm front well out ahead of the low is currently racing
east across the Eastern Aleutians and Bering bringing strong winds
and hurricane force gusts through channeled terrain, hence a high
wind warning is still in effect through this evening for the
AKPEN. The low will weaken quite a bit as it tracks east
following the Aleutian chain and loses some of its upper level
support, though a tight pressure gradient will remain intact
keeping strong winds across most of the region through Thursday.
The next system approaches the Western Aleutians by Thursday
morning bringing another round of rain and winds, though this
system is expected to be much weaker than the current one.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Saturday through Wednesday)...

The weekend forecast begins with a continuation of the very active
and progressive pattern, bringing more wet and unseasonably mild
conditions to most of southern Alaska. There remains considerable
model spread on timing, intensity, and placement of significant
weather systems, but sometime in the Sunday or Monday timeframe a
final storm will come in from the southwest and bring another round
of rain to the area.

By the middle of next week, there is surprisingly good model
agreement in the development of a large upper level high pressure
system developing somewhere over the western half of interior
Alaska. This should definitely dry things out across most of the
area, but it remains to be seen whether this weather pattern will
allow a plunge of cold air down into southcentral and the Copper
River Basin along with strong offshore winds (GFS and Canadian
models showing this) or much lighter winds and warmer conditions
and potential for widespread fog across the area (ECMWF solution).
A middle-ground solution is the most prudent at this point, which
shows a cool-down to seasonal norms but not a plunge of cold air
hinted at by some models.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High Wind Warning 181.
		 Winter Weather Advisory 145.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KH
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...RD
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KVP
LONG TERM...AMD