Gale Warning 419, NWS Anchorage, AK

042 
FZAK52 PAFC 030001
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
401 PM AKDT Sat Sep 2 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-031300-
401 PM AKDT Sat Sep 2 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 972 mb low 210 nm south of Dutch Harbor maintains strength as it 
moves to 240 nm south of Sand Point late Sun afternoon, then weakens
to 990 mb as it moves to 150 nm south of Sand Point Mon afternoon.
Sunday night a 963 mb low 450 nm west of Shemya moves a front to 
the western Aleutians by early Mon morning, then pushes the front
further north as it moves to 240 nm west of Shemya Mon afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-031300-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
401 PM AKDT Sat Sep 2 2017

...STORM WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt becoming E 50 kt after midnight. Seas 17 ft
building to 23 ft. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 50 kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain showers.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ155-031300-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
401 PM AKDT Sat Sep 2 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain.
.SUN...NE wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
21 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain showers.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ160-031300-
Bristol Bay-
401 PM AKDT Sat Sep 2 2017

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ165-031300-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
401 PM AKDT Sat Sep 2 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind increasing to 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.SUN...NE wind 35 kt except NE 45 kt from Port Moller E. Seas 13
ft. Rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ170-031300-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
401 PM AKDT Sat Sep 2 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...N wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ171-031300-
Unalaska Bay-
401 PM AKDT Sat Sep 2 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind increasing to 35 kt. Seas 6 ft building to 10 ft
after midnight. Rain.
.SUN...N wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain showers.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-031300-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
401 PM AKDT Sat Sep 2 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.SUN...N wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...N wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ173-031300-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
401 PM AKDT Sat Sep 2 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...N wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ174-031300-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
401 PM AKDT Sat Sep 2 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ175-031300-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
401 PM AKDT Sat Sep 2 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ176-031300-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
401 PM AKDT Sat Sep 2 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ177-031300-
Adak to Kiska-
401 PM AKDT Sat Sep 2 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ178-031300-
Kiska to Attu-
401 PM AKDT Sat Sep 2 2017

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt becoming variable 10 kt after midnight. Seas
7 ft. Patchy fog.
.SUN...Se wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.SUN NIGHT...Se wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas 
6 ft building to 11 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.MON...S wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 28 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 29 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ179-031300-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
401 PM AKDT Sat Sep 2 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind increasing to 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ180-031300-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
401 PM AKDT Sat Sep 2 2017

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt except NE 20 kt N of Cape Newenham. Seas 7 
ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...NE wind 40 kt except NE 30 kt N of Cape Newenham. Seas 10 ft.
Widespread rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt except NE 25 kt N of Cape Newenham. Seas 
10 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ181-031300-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
401 PM AKDT Sat Sep 2 2017

.TONIGHT...NE wind increasing to 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ185-031300-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
401 PM AKDT Sat Sep 2 2017

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...S 15 kt W of 
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 20 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...S 15 kt W of 
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

425 
FZAK52 PAFC 031133
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
333 AM AKDT Sun Sep 3 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-040100-
333 AM AKDT Sun Sep 3 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
Bogoslof Volcano, located 53 nm NW of Dutch Harbor, is currently 
active.

A 968 mb low 290 nm south of Sand Point will move to 200 nm south
of Chignik at 975 mb tonight, then shift to 230 nm south of 
Chignik at 994 mb Mon night. A 960 mb low near Kamchatka tonight 
will move a front to the western Aleutians early Mon morning, then
will push the front to the central Bering as the low moves to 200
nm west of Shemya at 969 mb Mon night.

$$

PKZ150-040100-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
333 AM AKDT Sun Sep 3 2017

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 50 kt diminishing to 35 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 24 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ155-040100-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
333 AM AKDT Sun Sep 3 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 21 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 kt except NE 20 kt from the Shumagin Islands E.
Seas 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ160-040100-
Bristol Bay-
333 AM AKDT Sun Sep 3 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind increasing to 40 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight.
Seas 8 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ165-040100-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
333 AM AKDT Sun Sep 3 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ170-040100-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
333 AM AKDT Sun Sep 3 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ171-040100-
Unalaska Bay-
333 AM AKDT Sun Sep 3 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt in the morning. Seas 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-040100-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
333 AM AKDT Sun Sep 3 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...N wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ173-040100-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
333 AM AKDT Sun Sep 3 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 kt becoming NW 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 12 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ174-040100-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
333 AM AKDT Sun Sep 3 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ175-040100-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
333 AM AKDT Sun Sep 3 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt except 15 kt W of Atka. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight.
W of Atka...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft.
Patchy fog.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ176-040100-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
333 AM AKDT Sun Sep 3 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt W of Atka in the
afternoon. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt except 15 kt W of Atka. Seas 10 ft.
Patchy fog.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft.
Patchy fog.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ177-040100-
Adak to Kiska-
333 AM AKDT Sun Sep 3 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON...S wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 5 ft building to 9 ft in the afternoon. Patchy fog.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ178-040100-
Kiska to Attu-
333 AM AKDT Sun Sep 3 2017

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt after midnight.
Seas 9 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ179-040100-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
333 AM AKDT Sun Sep 3 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ180-040100-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
333 AM AKDT Sun Sep 3 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 35 kt except 25 kt N of Cape Newenham.
Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt except 25 kt N of Cape Newenham.
Seas 10 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ181-040100-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
333 AM AKDT Sun Sep 3 2017

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ185-040100-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
333 AM AKDT Sun Sep 3 2017

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt except S 15 kt W of Saint Matthew Island. 
Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt except SW 20 kt W of Saint Matthew Island. 
Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON...N wind 15 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...S 20 kt W of Saint
Matthew Island. Seas 5 ft. Areas of fog.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
509 PM AKDT Fri Sep 1 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A long-wave trough is centered over the Alaska region with two
strong jet streaks on either side of the trough; one driving
eastward along the Aleutians then southward into the north central
Pacific and the other extending northeastward out of the base of
the trough up to Southeast Alaska. There are multiple closed lows
embedded within the trough. One is lifting northward up Cook Inlet
and the Susitna Valley producing scattered to numerous showers
across Southcentral. A larger deeper low is nearly stationary off
the west coast of Alaska, with a short-wave trough on the south
side rotating eastward into the Kuskokwim Delta, with a few
showers headed inland.

All eyes are on the third upper level low over the southwest
Bering Sea. A strong short-wave on the back side of this low is
digging southeastward toward the north Pacific. This will amplify
the flow and lead to rapid development of what is now a weak
surface low tracking eastward along the subtropical jet. This
interaction is expected to begin tonight and continue through
Saturday. The end result will be a highly amplified pattern with
a storm force surface low south of the Alaska. Ultimately this
will lead to development of an atmospheric river in the Northeast
Pacific/Gulf of Alaska, which is the main forecast challenge for
early next week.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models continue to shift with details of the development/track
of the deep low and placement of the atmospheric river. In
particular, after a trend toward more progressive upper level
pattern on Thursday, the models have all shifted back toward a
solution more similar to Tuesday's runs. This would lead to an
atmospheric river pointed toward Cordova or areas just to the
east Monday through Tuesday. There is still some spread among
the various models, but all indications are increased confidence
in a heavy rain event for eastern Prince William Sound.

Aside from the uncertainty in the exact placement of the
atmospheric river (and heaviest rainfall), guidance is much more
consistent with the overall strength and location of the storm
system south of the Alaska Peninsula. Thus, forecast confidence
is generally very high with the expected weather from this system.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions will persist. Showers will remain in the
vicinity through this evening, so ceilings could briefly drop
below 5000 ft. With unstable low levels and favorable up Inlet
flow, expect gusty southerly winds to persist through the
overnight hours. Winds should then cut off sometime Saturday
morning as flow shifts to down Cook Inlet out ahead of the deep
low forming south of the Alaska Peninsula.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

The main focus for the upcoming Labor Day weekend is focused
around a storm system moving just south of the alaska Peninsula
late Saturday. Ahead of this system, a broad area of low pressure
centered over the southwest mainland will initiate a few showers
through Saturday. A cooler air mass will keep temperatures at or
below normal through Sunday with gusty diurnal winds expected. The
storm system of concern moves a front across the southern gulf and
Kodiak Island Saturday evening with rain and winds expected to
rapidly increase along the boundary. This system swings the front
to the northern coast by late Sunday. The heaviest precipitation
will be along the gulf and Prince William Sound coasts as strong
southeasterly flow downslopes rain across the mountain ranges.
Gustier winds are anticipated across channeled terrain as the
pressure gradient is squeezed with the frontal push Sunday through
Sunday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Southwest continues to be dominated by an upper level trough
centered over the northern part of the state. A shortwave swinging
along the base of trough will bring an area of rain and showers
through the Y-K Delta region and then east across the lower
Kuskokwim River Valley tonight. With increased cloud cover over
the region, tomorrow morning's temperatures will be warmer than
the previous morning, where temps dropped to near or below the
freezing mark in several locations.  There will be a brief break
in the weather on during the day on Saturday before the next
systems approaches the area overnight.

A very strong low pressure system moving in south of the
Aleutians will begin to pump in moisture to the area with SE flow
picking up and rain spreading into the Kuskokwim River Valley and
the Bristol Bay area by Saturday night. Strong SE winds will also
begin to pick up Saturday night and will increase through the day
on Sunday as a low level jet moves in ahead of the low. By Sunday
afternoon, winds are expected to be in the 30-40 mph range on the
west side of the AKPEN and the Bristol Bay coast, with gusts
reaching up to 50-60 mph as winds become accelerated through
terrain gaps. Downsloping is expected to develop on the lee side
of the Aleutian Range by Sunday afternoon and should help to taper
off precipitation in those areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
 A low just south of the Aleutians will rapidly deepen on Saturday
into a storm force, sub 970 mb low by the end of the day on
Saturday. The low will move east to about 250 mi south of Dutch
Harbor and bring widespread gale force winds to areas east of
Dutch Harbor by Saturday night. Heavy rain will also impact the
region and strong southerly flow will tap into subtropical
moisture. The low is expected to stall out on Sunday as high
pressure to the east blocks any further progression. This will
mean continued gales with areas of storm force winds along the
southern AKPEN south of Kodiak throughout the day on Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The remnants of the storm force low from this upcoming weekend
will remain parked just south over the Eastern Aleutians on Monday
through Tuesday afternoon. The models have struggled with this
system with the NAM being the outlier in pushing this system
farther north into the Eastern Aleutians. The GFS was the
preferred model of choice with keeping the aforementioned synoptic
system farther south of the Chain. The key feature is the
atmospheric river that will develop resulting from this system as
it coincides with the strong 130 knot southerly jet streak
located over the Gulf of Alaska as it streams northward through
the Southcentral Region. This provides abundant moisture which
will stream northward resulting in potential heavy rainfall issues
to occur along the northern coastal communities from Cordova
eastward to Yakutat during the early part of next week. Therefore,
a Flood Watch has been issued for the Southeast Prince William
Sound, and Cordova from Monday morning through late Tuesday night.
While the Anchorage Bowl looks to remain downsloped resulting in
drier conditions through Thursday, but there maybe a few isolated
showers making it over the mountains with continued cooler
temperatures with cloudy skies through the midweek. Meanwhile,
the remnants of Typhoon Sanvu approaches the Western Aleutians by
Monday morning. The models are struggling with the
timing/placement of this synoptic system. By Wednesday afternoon
this low pressure system looks to be located over the Central
Aleutians near Atka before crossing over into the North Pacific
Ocean by early Thursday morning. This will bring widespread gusty
winds accompanied by stratus/rain with the Bering/Aleutians to be
under the influence of strong gusty northeasterly to northerly
winds as it tracks eastward through the midweek.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gales 131 132 138 150 155 160 165 170 172 173 174 176 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SEB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...KH
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KVP
LONG TERM...PD