Gale Warning 389, NWS Anchorage, AK

976 
FZAK51 PAFC 232258
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
258 PM AKDT Wed Aug 23 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-241130-
258 PM AKDT Wed Aug 23 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A front will enter the southwest Gulf of Alaska near Sitkinak
Island on Wednesday evening. It will strengthen to gale force and
move to a line between 36nm south of Seward and 31nm W of Yakutat
by Thursday night. Thursday night an area of low pressure will 
form over Kodiak Island at 991 mb. It will move to 75nm north of 
Kodiak by Friday morning.

$$

PKZ119-241130-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
258 PM AKDT Wed Aug 23 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. 
Seas 6 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt becoming S 15 kt by midnight. 
Near the coast, E wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt toward 
morning. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ120-241130-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
258 PM AKDT Wed Aug 23 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt toward morning. 
Seas 6 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ121-241130-
Resurrection Bay-
258 PM AKDT Wed Aug 23 2017

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Higher winds and S of Caines Head. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...N wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Higher S of 
Caines Head. Rain.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-241130-
Prince William Sound-
258 PM AKDT Wed Aug 23 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.THU...E wind increasing to 30 kt. Gusts to 40 kt near Hinchinbrook
Entrance late. Seas 4 ft building to 7 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt near Hinchinbrook Entrance
in the evening. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-241130-
Port Valdez-
258 PM AKDT Wed Aug 23 2017

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
Widespread rain showers.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI THROUGH MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-241130-
Valdez Narrows-
258 PM AKDT Wed Aug 23 2017

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming NE by midnight. 
Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-241130-
Valdez Arm-
258 PM AKDT Wed Aug 23 2017

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming NE late. Seas 3 ft. 
Widespread rain showers.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-241130-
Passage Canal-
258 PM AKDT Wed Aug 23 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.THU...E wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-241130-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
258 PM AKDT Wed Aug 23 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming E 30 kt after midnight. 
Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-241130-
Barren Islands East-
258 PM AKDT Wed Aug 23 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt by midnight. 
Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.THU...E wind 25 kt becoming S 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft. 
Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ132-241130-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
258 PM AKDT Wed Aug 23 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ136-241130-
Chiniak Bay-
258 PM AKDT Wed Aug 23 2017

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming S 10 kt late. Seas 4 ft 
subsiding to 2 ft after midnight. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less 
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable 
less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.FRI...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ137-241130-
Marmot Bay-
258 PM AKDT Wed Aug 23 2017

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt late. 
Seas 6 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight. Rain.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt 
after midnight. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ138-241130-
Shelikof Strait-
258 PM AKDT Wed Aug 23 2017

.TONIGHT...Variable wind to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SW 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-241130-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
258 PM AKDT Wed Aug 23 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming NE 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft building to 5 ft after midnight. Rain.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-241130-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
258 PM AKDT Wed Aug 23 2017

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt 
after midnight. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU...NE wind increasing to 20 kt. Seas building to 5 ft. 
Rain.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-241130-
Kachemak Bay-
258 PM AKDT Wed Aug 23 2017

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming E 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
525 AM AKDT Wed Aug 23 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
An upper level longwave trough is centered over the northern part
of the state and an upper level ridge is located over west and
southcentral AK. To the south a cut-off low pressure system over
the southern Gulf weakens as it moves east, though moisture
wrapping around the top of the system is currently producing rain
showers along the Gulf Coast and into the Prince William Sound.
The upper level ridge is quickly transiting off to the east as
another upper level low over the Bering moves in rapidly behind
it. A frontal system associated with this low is currently
approaching the southwest coast with a band of rain moving ashore
as seen on radar.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are in good agreement regarding the low moving in from the
Bering Sea into western and southcentral Alaska today. There are
some differences regarding mesoscale features including the
amount of downsloping seen on leeward side of the Kenai and
Chugach mountains, with the NAM being more aggressive in drying
out the low levels across Anchorage and the Kenai Peninsula this
afternoon. Sided mostly with the GFS in keeping light
precipitation in these areas throughout the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions will prevail over the terminal throughout
the day today. Mid and high level clouds will begin to move into
the area this morning ahead of the incoming system to the
southwest. Rain will move into the area by at least 00Z which
looks to coincide with the development of southeast Turnagain Arm
winds over the terminal. Slight downsloping should dry out the low
levels some keeping the terminal VFR through the forecast period.
Possible LLWS conditions may develop tomorrow night as a strong
southeasterly low level jet moves over the area. Hi-res models
show strong ridgetop winds over the front range in the 30-40 kt
range with light northerly flow setting up over the Anchorage Bowl
at the same time. We will watch the development of this event
as more recent model runs come in today and update the forecast as
necessary.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Radar imagery this morning indicates a broad line of showers that
stretches from the Kuskokwim Delta to across Bristol Bay. This
rainfall is associated with a front that will progress quickly
across the Kenai Peninsula and towards the Anchorage Bowl this
afternoon and evening. While models are showing fairly decent
consistency in the progression of the front and intensity, there
is still uncertainty in conditions ahead of the front. Currently
models are indicating a low level southwesterly jet forming along
the Inlet ahead of the main front. This may result in a round of
showers along the mountains and within the Anchorage Bowl this
afternoon, and a convergence band may form as a southeasterly
Turnagain Arm jet forms. However, each model indicates a
different strength and location of this convergence and
precipitation amounts are uncertain.

Wet conditions across much of Southcentral will continue into
Thursday evening as the front lingers along the north Gulf coast.
Pressure gradients will favor a persistent low level jet along the
gulf coast and into Prince William Sound which will support gusts
well into the Gale category. Gusty winds are also anticipated
through Turnagain Arm and higher elevations as cross barrier flow
persists.

 &&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Cloudy and rainy conditions will begin to spread from west to east
this morning over the southwest mainland, as the front over the
eastern Bering tracks inland. Gusty winds are also expected to
pick up along the southwest coast and Aleutian range this
afternoon, as the pressure gradient remains tight over the area
through Thursday. As the parent low pushes inland over the Bristol
Bay area Thursday morning, rainfall will continue and gusty
northerly winds will ramp up along the Kuskokwim Delta coast
through Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
Rain and gusty winds will impact much of the Bering through
tonight as the broad low pressure system rapidly tracks eastward
from the central Bering to Bristol Bay over the course of the
next 24 hours. A more tranquil pattern will settle over the region
on Thursday in the wake of the low, with northerly flow perhaps
generating a few showers over the eastern Bering on the backside
of the trough digging over the southwest mainland. Meanwhile,
benign cloudy conditions will return to the western Bering as high
pressure builds over the area.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...

Beginning the extended period forecast Friday night, there will be
a large upper trough carved out across Alaska with a thin but
amplified upper level ridge axis over the Bering Sea. Another
arctic trough will be digging across Southwest Alaska and
reinforcing another low over the Gulf of Alaska. Rain will be
along the coast with showery, cooler, and cloudy conditions
inland. Eventually, the low in the Gulf of Alaska will weaken and
move east by Sunday, with diminishing precipitation through about
Monday. In the meantime, the upper level pattern will be in
transition as now all global numerical guidance undercuts the
Bering ridge with a series of low amplitude shortwave troughs as
they cross the Aleutian Chain and amplify somewhere over the
North-central Pacific Ocean. This evolution will begin to unfold
Monday night with the development of a larger low approximately
south of the Alaska Peninsula. As usual, there is uncertainty on
the track, strength, and orientation of the eventual low, but the
possibility exists for heavy coastal rain (since this low will be
tapping subtropical moisture) and strong/gusty southeast winds
impacting inland areas. Rain is also likely inland, but the extent
of which east of the Alaska Range is more uncertain as the global
models differ in how strongly the Yukon ridge axis builds
westward. Either way, more active weather looks likely by midweek
across parts of Southern Alaska and the eastern Bering Sea.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale warning 119 125.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KVP
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...ELN
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PEPE
LONG TERM...JA