Gale Warning 388, NWS Anchorage, AK

496 
FZAK51 PAFC 231326 AAA
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast...UPDATED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
526 AM AKDT Wed Aug 23 2017

Coastal waters forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-240315-
526 AM AKDT Wed Aug 23 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 1002 mb low 200 nm southwest of Sitka will move eastward and 
then dissipate by Thur night. A front will enter the southwest 
Gulf Wed evening and move to the northern Gulf by Thu morning.

$$

PKZ119-240315-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
526 AM AKDT Wed Aug 23 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain. 
.THU...SE wind 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain. 
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ120-240315-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
526 AM AKDT Wed Aug 23 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt after midnight. Seas
5 ft. Rain. 
.THU...E wind 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain. 
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ121-240315-
Resurrection Bay-
526 AM AKDT Wed Aug 23 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain. 
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain. 
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Higher winds and seas S of Caines Head.
Rain. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-240315-
Prince William Sound-
526 AM AKDT Wed Aug 23 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers. 
.THU...E wind 30 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Seas 4 ft building to
7 ft  in the afternoon. Rain. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 30 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-240315-
Port Valdez-
526 AM AKDT Wed Aug 23 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers. 
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable
less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers. 
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain. 
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-240315-
Valdez Narrows-
526 AM AKDT Wed Aug 23 2017

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
Rain showers. 
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers. 
.THU...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Rain. 
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-240315-
Valdez Arm-
526 AM AKDT Wed Aug 23 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW wind 10 kt in
the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers. 
.THU...NE wind 10 kt becoming NE 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Rain. 
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-240315-
Passage Canal-
526 AM AKDT Wed Aug 23 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers. 
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-240315-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
526 AM AKDT Wed Aug 23 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SE 15 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 3 ft. Rain. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain. 
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain. 
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ131-240315-
Barren Islands East-
526 AM AKDT Wed Aug 23 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain. 
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain. 
.THU NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ132-240315-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
526 AM AKDT Wed Aug 23 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain. 
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain. 
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ136-240315-
Chiniak Bay-
526 AM AKDT Wed Aug 23 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after
midnight. Rain. 
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain. 
.THU NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-240315-
Marmot Bay-
526 AM AKDT Wed Aug 23 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Rain. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain. 
.THU...W wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain. 
.THU NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-240315-
Shelikof Strait-
526 AM AKDT Wed Aug 23 2017

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain. 
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain. 
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ139-240315-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
526 AM AKDT Wed Aug 23 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming NE after midnight. Seas 4 ft.
Rain. 
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain. 
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-240315-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
526 AM AKDT Wed Aug 23 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain. 
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Rain. 
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain. 
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-240315-
Kachemak Bay-
526 AM AKDT Wed Aug 23 2017

.TODAY...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain. 
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain. 
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

976 
FZAK51 PAFC 232258
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
258 PM AKDT Wed Aug 23 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-241130-
258 PM AKDT Wed Aug 23 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A front will enter the southwest Gulf of Alaska near Sitkinak
Island on Wednesday evening. It will strengthen to gale force and
move to a line between 36nm south of Seward and 31nm W of Yakutat
by Thursday night. Thursday night an area of low pressure will 
form over Kodiak Island at 991 mb. It will move to 75nm north of 
Kodiak by Friday morning.

$$

PKZ119-241130-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
258 PM AKDT Wed Aug 23 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. 
Seas 6 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt becoming S 15 kt by midnight. 
Near the coast, E wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt toward 
morning. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ120-241130-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
258 PM AKDT Wed Aug 23 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt toward morning. 
Seas 6 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ121-241130-
Resurrection Bay-
258 PM AKDT Wed Aug 23 2017

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Higher winds and S of Caines Head. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...N wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Higher S of 
Caines Head. Rain.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-241130-
Prince William Sound-
258 PM AKDT Wed Aug 23 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.THU...E wind increasing to 30 kt. Gusts to 40 kt near Hinchinbrook
Entrance late. Seas 4 ft building to 7 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt near Hinchinbrook Entrance
in the evening. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-241130-
Port Valdez-
258 PM AKDT Wed Aug 23 2017

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
Widespread rain showers.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI THROUGH MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-241130-
Valdez Narrows-
258 PM AKDT Wed Aug 23 2017

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming NE by midnight. 
Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-241130-
Valdez Arm-
258 PM AKDT Wed Aug 23 2017

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming NE late. Seas 3 ft. 
Widespread rain showers.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-241130-
Passage Canal-
258 PM AKDT Wed Aug 23 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.THU...E wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-241130-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
258 PM AKDT Wed Aug 23 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming E 30 kt after midnight. 
Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-241130-
Barren Islands East-
258 PM AKDT Wed Aug 23 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt by midnight. 
Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.THU...E wind 25 kt becoming S 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft. 
Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ132-241130-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
258 PM AKDT Wed Aug 23 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ136-241130-
Chiniak Bay-
258 PM AKDT Wed Aug 23 2017

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming S 10 kt late. Seas 4 ft 
subsiding to 2 ft after midnight. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less 
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable 
less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.FRI...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ137-241130-
Marmot Bay-
258 PM AKDT Wed Aug 23 2017

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt late. 
Seas 6 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight. Rain.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt 
after midnight. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ138-241130-
Shelikof Strait-
258 PM AKDT Wed Aug 23 2017

.TONIGHT...Variable wind to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SW 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-241130-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
258 PM AKDT Wed Aug 23 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming NE 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft building to 5 ft after midnight. Rain.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-241130-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
258 PM AKDT Wed Aug 23 2017

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt 
after midnight. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU...NE wind increasing to 20 kt. Seas building to 5 ft. 
Rain.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-241130-
Kachemak Bay-
258 PM AKDT Wed Aug 23 2017

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming E 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
446 PM AKDT Tue Aug 22 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The upper level longwave trough remains over the mainland part of
the state as it extends southward out of the Arctic. The cut-off
low that broke off this trough is in the central Gulf of Alaska
and will be moving eastward overnight. The upper level ridge is
over the eastern Bering sea and Eastern Aleutians today producing
a tight NW gradient and jet streak over Southwest mainland Alaska
and the Alaska Peninsula. The next upper level low is just north
of Attu and providing more moisture and lifting in the Bering
Sea. This system will merge with the digging trough in the
Interior to bring in solid southwest flow aloft to Southwest
Alaska by tomorrow morning and Southcentral Alaska late tomorrow
afternoon.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models remain in good agreement over the next few days. The ECMWF
is slightly slower and more southerly with the way the low exits
Bristol Bay into the Gulf of Alaska on Friday. A GFS/NAM blend was
the preferred guidance.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Skies should mostly clear this evening and there is a
chance for some patchy fog to develop overnight before the cloud
cover moves back in. Conditions are expected to remain VFR
through tomorrow. Southeast Turnagain Arm winds are expected to
move over the airport Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3, through
Thursday)...

As the current surface low in the Gulf of Alaska moves off to the
southeast, weak ridging is in place over south central Alaska
resulting a break in the rainy weather. We have a low now over the
Bering Sea pushing a front east toward the mainland. This front
will be approaching Kodiak Island by tomorrow morning. As it does,
a sharp ridge will build in along the North Gulf Coast resulting
in accelerating in the wind along the coast and through Turnagain
Arm by Wednesday afternoon and evening. Moist southwest flow aloft
in support of this incoming front will return the southern
mainland to the rainy pattern Wednesday afternoon. The low
supporting the front will move over southwest Alaska by Thursday
morning then drift to Kodiak Island through Friday. This will keep
the region under the cool wet conditions through Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A weak disturbance traversing the northern part of the area will
bring light rain showers to parts of the Kuskokwim Delta and
Valley tonight. Otherwise, most of Southwest AK will remain dry
through late Wednesday morning as a transient upper level ridge
shifts east of the region. Steady rain will then move back into
the area during the afternoon, spreading from southwest to
northeast as the Bering front arrives along the coast and pushes
inland. The front will quickly move east of the area by Wednesday
night, however widespread stratiform rain is expected to continue
as an upper trough racing across the Bering partially phases with
the next trough digging down from the Arctic. This should keep
the rain going through Thursday night as a closed upper low forms
along the Southwest coast and slowly tracks towards the Alaska
Peninsula.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
Rain and gusty winds will impact much of the Bering through
Wednesday night as the broad low pressure system rapidly tracks
eastward from near Attu to Bristol Bay over the course of the
next 24 hours. A more tranquil pattern will settle over the region
on Thursday in the wake of the low, with northerly flow perhaps
generating a few showers over the eastern Bering on the backside
of the trough digging over the southwest mainland. Meanwhile,
benign cloudy conditions will return to the western Bering as high
pressure builds over the area.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...

Beginning the extended period forecast Friday night, there will be
a large upper trough carved out across Alaska with a thin by
amplified upper level ridge axis over the Bering Sea. Another
arctic trough will be digging across Southwest Alaska and
reinforcing another low over the Gulf of Alaska. Rain will be
along the coast with showery, cooler, and cloudy conditions
inland. Eventually, the low in the Gulf of Alaska will weaken and
move east by Sunday, with diminishing precipitation through about
Monday. In the meantime, the upper level pattern will be in
transition as now all global numerical guidance undercuts the
Bering ridge with a series of low amplitude shortwave troughs as
they cross the Aleutian Chain and amplify somewhere over the
North-central Pacific Ocean. This evolution will begin to unfold
Monday night with the development of a larger low approximately
south of the Alaska Peninsula. As usual, there is uncertainty on
the track, strength, and orientation of the eventual low, but the
possibility exists for heavy coastal rain (since this low will be
tapping subtropical moisture) and strong/gusty southeast winds
impacting inland areas. Rain is also likely inland, but the extent
of which east of the Alaska Range is more uncertain as the global
models differ in how strongly the Yukon ridge axis builds
westward. Either way, more active weather looks likely by midweek
across parts of Southern Alaska and the eastern Bering Sea.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SA
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CB
LONG TERM...JA