Gale Warning 317, NWS Anchorage, AK

486 
FZAK51 PAFC 042336
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
336 PM AKDT THU MAY 4 2017

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-051215-
336 PM AKDT THU MAY 4 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1001 MB LOW 165 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK WILL MOVE TO AROUND 200
NM SOUTHWEST OF PORT ALEXANDER MIDDAY FRIDAY THEN DISSIPATE FRI
EVENING. A FRONT WILL ENTER THE SOUTHWEST GULF FRI NIGHT AS A 990
MB LOW MOVES TO 100 NM SOUTHEAST OF SITKINAK LATE SATURDAY. 

$$

PKZ119-051215-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
336 PM AKDT THU MAY 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ120-051215-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
336 PM AKDT THU MAY 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ121-051215-
RESURRECTION BAY-
336 PM AKDT THU MAY 4 2017

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT BY MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ125-051215-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
336 PM AKDT THU MAY 4 2017

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-051215-
PORT VALDEZ-
336 PM AKDT THU MAY 4 2017

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-051215-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
336 PM AKDT THU MAY 4 2017

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-051215-
VALDEZ ARM-
336 PM AKDT THU MAY 4 2017

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-051215-
PASSAGE CANAL-
336 PM AKDT THU MAY 4 2017

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-051215-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
336 PM AKDT THU MAY 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ131-051215-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
336 PM AKDT THU MAY 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ132-051215-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
336 PM AKDT THU MAY 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ136-051215-
CHINIAK BAY-
336 PM AKDT THU MAY 4 2017

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ137-051215-
MARMOT BAY-
336 PM AKDT THU MAY 4 2017

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-051215-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
336 PM AKDT THU MAY 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ139-051215-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
336 PM AKDT THU MAY 4 2017

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-051215-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
336 PM AKDT THU MAY 4 2017

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-051215-
KACHEMAK BAY-
336 PM AKDT THU MAY 4 2017

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
431 PM AKDT Wed May 3 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The upper level pattern remains similar to yesterday with the
large low in the Gulf of Alaska and ridging over the southern part
of the Bering Sea. A second upper level low developed over
Kamchatka last night and is moving southeast. This low will
become the main weather feature for the later part of this week.
The low in the Gulf has become vertically stacked with the surface
low now directly underneath the upper level low. The low is past
its peak strength and will slowly weaken in place over the next
day before moving southeastward and then out of the Gulf Friday.

The atmosphere over the Kuskokwim Delta is much more stable this
afternoon compared to yesterday and no afternoon convection is
expected there. The Kuskokwim Valley southward to Bristol Bay is
where there is a little instability which will lead to some
afternoon and evening showers. Satellite imagery is showing some
locally heavy showers developing over the Susitna Valley as is the
Copper River Basin.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models remain in excellent agreement overall with the two large
lows. The most difficult part of the Southcentral forecast will be
the winds around Cook Inlet as the Turnagain Arm wind, as well as
winds through other gaps, are being pulled southward by the
pressure gradient and northward by daytime heating in the Susitna
Valley. This may cause some variable directions for winds coming
through the gaps in the Kenai, Chugach, and Talkeetna mountains
which even the high resolution models are having a hard time
resolving.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions will persist through Thursday. Winds will be
the main concern as the Turnagain Arm winds will be on the edge of
the area. The main gradient remains down the Inlet but Susitna
Valley heating may draw the Turnagain Arm wind into PANC this
afternoon and evening which would cause some Southeasterly wind at
the airport. Tomorrow afternoon looks like a better chance of
this happening with stronger gusts than today,

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Winds and precipitation will begin to diminish late tonight as the
Gulf low continues to dissipate and drift south of the area. To
the north of this low, showers that passed over the Anchorage
Bowl/Matanuska Valley earlier this morning have moistened the low
levels enough for a few rain showers to pass overhead as cyclonic
flow remains aloft. Further north over the Susitna Valley,
daytime heating that has brought temperatures into the low 60's
may also provide enough instability to produce a few thunderstorms
this evening, especially along the western slopes of the
Talkeetna Mountains. Clouds and precipitation will begin to
dissipate throughout the area on Thursday, and likely allow for
for sunny skies and above normal temperatures for much of the day
as weak high pressure moves into the area. This period of good
weather will continue into Friday for much of Southcentral and the
Gulf Coast. This will be a different story further south near
Kodiak Island where the next frontal system will approach late
Friday-Saturday, providing widespread rain and sub-gale force
winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

The winds across the area will begin to subside overnight as the
low across the Gulf drifts and weakens with time. Due to extensive
upper level cloud cover from the Lower Kuskokwim Valley southward
through Bristol Bay, relative humidity values have been well above
critical values due to increased moisture from the Gulf low and
lower temperatures. Shower activity is expected to develop tonight
across this area as an atmospheric wave moves through. Any wetting
rains will further increase relative humidity values. The shower
activity will continue into Thursday as the axis of heavier shower
activity moves back to the Alaska Range, which is a more typical
pattern for May.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

The front over the northern Bering will continue to weaken
overnight tonight. The next front will move in from the south into
the central Aleutians tonight, then move into the central Bering
through Friday. The strongest winds with the front will be
when it first moves through the Aleutians, with gradual weakening
thereafter. The front will approach the Pribilofs by Friday
morning.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The main issue beginning Friday is the front pushing into the
southwest mainland supported by a moderately strong low over the
central Aleutians. This will establish a more typical fall like
pattern over the southern mainland as we will see a ridge rapidly
build in along the Gulf coast in advance of the incoming front and
also will see the intensification of the trough over the
interior. This is a classic setup for the stronger cross mountain
downslope drying and southerly winds up into the Copper River
Basin along with moist flow into the Alaska Range.

Saturday a low forms along the front southwest of Kodiak Island
while another low forms south of the Gulf of Alaska. That low then
moves to the North Gulf Coast Sunday while the main anchor low
remains over the Alaska Peninsula and Eastern Bering Sea. This
will hold the southern mainland in this cloudy moist pattern
through the weekend.

Moving into the early part of next week we expect a continuation
of the cool cloudy pattern over the southern mainland due to the
low moving into the southern Gulf of Alaska along with the trough
of low pressure extending across the interior. As this low moves
to south of the Gulf of Alaska, another low moves into the western
Bering Sea pushing a front across the western Aleutians Tuesday.
Weak high pressure forms between these two lows over the eastern
Bering Sea.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gales 119 120 125 130-132 139 150 155 160 172-178 351 352 413.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DEK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JW
LONG TERM...SA