Gale Warning 302, NWS Anchorage, AK

161 
FZAK62 PAFC 051134
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
334 AM AKDT FRI MAY 5 2017

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-060100-
334 AM AKDT FRI MAY 5 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 977 MB COMPLEX LOW CENTERED NEAR 50N 174W WILL SPIN IN PLACE
WITH TWO CENTERS THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON THEN SHIFT TO 51N 163W LATE
SAT NIGHT. A 990 MB LOW WILL APPROACH 56N 156W LATE SAT NIGHT.

$$

PKZ411-060100-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
334 AM AKDT FRI MAY 5 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ412-060100-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
334 AM AKDT FRI MAY 5 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.

$$

PKZ413-060100-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
334 AM AKDT FRI MAY 5 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 12 TO 19 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.

$$

PKZ414-060100-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
334 AM AKDT FRI MAY 5 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

398 
FZAK62 PAFC 052356
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
356 PM AKDT FRI MAY 5 2017

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-061415-
356 PM AKDT FRI MAY 5 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 977 MB LOW AT 51N 172W MOVES TO 56N 161W AT 991 MB BY SUN
AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND 
NORTHERN BERING INTO THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND AND GULF OF ALASKA 
THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE WESTERN 
ALEUTIANS BY SUN AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-061415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
356 PM AKDT FRI MAY 5 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.SUN...N WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.

$$

PKZ412-061415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
356 PM AKDT FRI MAY 5 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SAT...N WIND 25 TO 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.

$$

PKZ413-061415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
356 PM AKDT FRI MAY 5 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...N WIND 25 TO 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.

$$

PKZ414-061415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
356 PM AKDT FRI MAY 5 2017

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.MON...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...SE WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.

$$

985 
FZAK62 PAFC 061149
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
349 AM AKDT SAT MAY 6 2017

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-070130-
349 AM AKDT SAT MAY 6 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 981 MB LOW AT 53N 171W MOVES TO 52N 165W AT 988 MB BY SUN 
MORNING. A 987 MB LOW CROSSES THE ALASKA PENINSULA INTO BRISTOL
BAY SUN MORNING. THIS LOW THEN MERGES WITH THE PREVIOUS LOW AT 
997 MB NEAR 54N 163W MON MORNING. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE 
WESTERN ALEUTIANS BY MON MORNING.

$$

PKZ411-070130-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
349 AM AKDT SAT MAY 6 2017

.TODAY...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT EXCEPT S 10 TO 20 KT W OF 175E.
SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ412-070130-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
349 AM AKDT SAT MAY 6 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.

$$

PKZ413-070130-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
349 AM AKDT SAT MAY 6 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.MON...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.

$$

PKZ414-070130-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
349 AM AKDT SAT MAY 6 2017

.TODAY...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.MON...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4 FT.
.WED...SE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
454 AM AKDT Thu May 4 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The closed low in the western Gulf is now spinning in place and
rapidly weakening. There's little left in the way of dynamic lift,
while upslope flow against the Kenai mountains keeps rain going in
that area. Otherwise the fronts have dissipated from a thermal
perspective and the wind field is weakening pretty fast as surface
pressures fill. The next system to catch our attention is a
deepening trough south of the Aleutians. A decent 100+ kt jet is
energizing the system while stretching a gale-force front from the
southern Bering Sea, approaching the eastern Aleutians. These two
systems will be the source of active weather in the short-term.

From a sensible weather perspective, the Gulf system has spread
mid and high level clouds over much of Southcentral AK while
keeping any rain confined to the coast. Gap winds have tapered
down overnight with the loss of heating, otherwise mostly down-Inlet
flow exists. Temperatures are remaining elevated (in the 40s most
places) under cloud cover.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Guidance is finally in lockstep with the weakening of the current
surface low as it moves eastward in the Gulf. The next feature
models are struggling with is the system out west. Different
handling of individual waves moving around the low are causing
discrepancies further out in time, the biggest being a frontal
wave that approaches the western Gulf by the weekend. How this
wave develops into a surface low pressure will have an effect on
how far the front moves northward in the Gulf, as well as the
strength of the low-level wind field. For the very short term no
major differences in guidance.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Turnagain wind will again be the TAF section with the most
uncertainty. The scenario looks very similar to yesterday, but
with the surface low weakening and pulling away the down-Inlet
gradient will be weakening as the Susitna Valley heats up. Winds
should be similar to yesterday, though the Turnagain wind should
be weakening as the TAF period moves on.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Clouds, precipitation, and wind will all diminish across the
region today through tonight as the low over the northwest Gulf
exits to the southeast. With ridging over-top of the low tight
pressure gradients will remain in place for today. Thus, expect
the usual gap winds through Turnagain Arm into Anchorage, Knik Arm
into Palmer, and along the Copper River.

Pressure gradients will slacken significantly by tomorrow. With
abundant sunshine across Southcentral this means sea breezes will
dominate. High temperatures the next couple days will tick upward
from previous days due to the increased sunshine. However, with a
fairly cool air mass still in place and light winds/mostly clear
skies at night, early morning temps will still feel quite cool -
with inland valleys dropping down to freezing or below.

Rain and stronger winds will move back into the western Gulf and
Kodiak Island Friday night as an elongating front approaches from
the southwest.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A trough extending from the low in the Gulf of Alaska across the
Aleutian range and stretching north into the Kuskokwim Valley will
continue to bring clouds and showers to those areas. Further to
the west, cool northwesterly flow has brought low stratus over the
Kuskokwim Delta to as far inland as Kalskag. With northwesterly
flow diminishing only gradually and continuing to push stratus
onshore today, solar heating will be the primary mechanism to
counteract it so thinking it will be slow to mix out with mostly
cloudy conditions likely over the Kuskokwim Delta through midday.

Showers will taper off tonight through Friday as a transient ridge
builds over Southwest Alaska. An incoming frontal system will
reach Bristol Bay Friday afternoon and push inland Friday night.
In addition to spreading precipitation onshore, this frontal
system will increase east to southeasterly winds, particularly
through gaps and passes in the Aleutian Range.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
A Gale force frontal system is lifting north into the central
Aleutians this morning. Ridging out ahead of it over the eastern
Aleutians will shift east over the Alaska Peninsula today and
tonight. A frontal wave with a strengthening triple point low will
swing east into the eastern Aleutians tonight and Alaska Peninsula
Friday. The large vertically stacked parent low will track to just
south of the Aleutians tonight, where it will remain and spin
troughs and surface low across the central and eastern Aleutians
through Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
Saturday a low forms along the front southwest of Kodiak Island
while another low forms south of the Gulf of Alaska. That low then
moves to the North Gulf Coast Sunday while the main anchor low
remains over the Alaska Peninsula and Eastern Bering Sea. This
will hold the southern mainland in this cloudy moist pattern
through the weekend.

Moving into the early part of next week we expect a continuation
of the cool cloudy pattern over the southern mainland due to the
low moving into the southern Gulf of Alaska along with the trough
of low pressure extending across the interior. As this low moves
to south of the Gulf of Alaska, another low moves into the western
Bering Sea pushing a front across the western Aleutians Tuesday.
Weak high pressure forms between these two lows over the eastern
Bering Sea.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale Warning 119 120 131 150 155 165 170 171 172 173 174
					  175 176 177 178 179 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MTL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JR
LONG TERM...SS