Gale Warning 309, NWS Anchorage, AK

836 
FZAK51 PAFC 021152
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
352 AM AKDT TUE MAY 2 2017

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-030100-
352 AM AKDT TUE MAY 2 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 965 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW ENTERS THE GULF 300 NM SOUTHEAST OF 
KODIAK CITY WED EVENING AND MOVES TO 170 NM EAST OF KODIAK AT 
989 MB BY THU MORNING.

$$

PKZ119-030100-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
352 AM AKDT TUE MAY 2 2017

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 21 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 26 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.THU...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ120-030100-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
352 AM AKDT TUE MAY 2 2017

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ121-030100-
RESURRECTION BAY-
352 AM AKDT TUE MAY 2 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF 
CAINES HEAD. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. 
RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT AND THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-030100-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
352 AM AKDT TUE MAY 2 2017

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-030100-
PORT VALDEZ-
352 AM AKDT TUE MAY 2 2017

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-030100-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
352 AM AKDT TUE MAY 2 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT AND THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-030100-
VALDEZ ARM-
352 AM AKDT TUE MAY 2 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-030100-
PASSAGE CANAL-
352 AM AKDT TUE MAY 2 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS 
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING VARIABLE WIND 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-030100-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
352 AM AKDT TUE MAY 2 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.WED...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ131-030100-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
352 AM AKDT TUE MAY 2 2017

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED...N WIND 40 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 18 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ132-030100-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
352 AM AKDT TUE MAY 2 2017

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 50 KT. SEAS 23 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ136-030100-
CHINIAK BAY-
352 AM AKDT TUE MAY 2 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ137-030100-
MARMOT BAY-
352 AM AKDT TUE MAY 2 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ138-030100-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
352 AM AKDT TUE MAY 2 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT SUBSIDING TO 9 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ139-030100-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
352 AM AKDT TUE MAY 2 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT AND WED...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ140-030100-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
352 AM AKDT TUE MAY 2 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-030100-
KACHEMAK BAY-
352 AM AKDT TUE MAY 2 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT AND THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
446 AM AKDT Mon May 1 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The broad low pressure system over the Eastern Aleutians continues
to gradually move southward into the North Pacific ocean. This is
resulting in northerly winds from the northern Bering extending
southward through the Central/Western Aleutians. Therefore, the
majority of the Bering and the Aleutians will remain under a
showery regime. Meanwhile, the Gulf has an upper level trough
swinging through the northern Gulf producing showers across the
northern coastal communities. This synoptic feature is reflected
by the radar imagery with showers moving through the Prince
William Sound, and along the Eastern Kenai Peninsula. Some of the
showers are spreading over the Aleutian Range into the Bristol Bay
interior. Meanwhile, the Anchorage Bowl, and portions of the
Western Kenai Peninsula remains with downsloped drier conditions.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The models remain in good agreement heading into the midweek.
There is a North Pacific low tracking into the lower Gulf by
Tuesday afternoon. The NAM is faster with the progression of this
system, and the GFS/ECMWF are slower with this feature. The
GFS/ECMWF storm track coincides with the jet stream transitioning
to a southerly meridional flow heading into Tuesday. Therefore,
the GFS/ECMWF were the preferred models of choice resulting in
above average forecast confidence through the midweek time-frame.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions with light northwesterly wind this morning,
but will shift around to southeasterly flow by this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A new upper level wave pushing through Kodiak Island this morning
will support precipitation across Southcentral today, and tonight
as it pushes northward. The morning sounding at Kodiak indicates
a slightly more moist airmass, and steep lapse rates. With little
CAPE to work with, thunderstorms are not likely, but a strike or
two cannot be ruled out due to easterly flow and orographic
enhancement. Persistent onshore flow will continue to support
shower development throughout the day even as the wave pushes
northward.

While Currently the wave is fairly weak, it is expected to
intensify as it pushes northward toward the northern Gulf of
Alaska coast throughout the day. Showers are expected to form
across the west Kenai Peninsula and Susitna Valley generally south
of Talkeetna by this evening. Models indicate weak CAPE mainly
over mountainous areas in the Susitna Region. The Anchorage
sounding this morning indicates more available moisture at mid-levels
than it has over the past several days and steep lapse rates. As
a result, a lightning strike or two cannot be ruled out for the
Susitna Valley or Kenai Peninsula, but is not likely.

A pattern change is expected by late Tuesday as an unseasonably strong
low pressure system moves from the eastern Gulf into the central
Gulf. The concern with this system is gusty winds nearing storm
force strength, with seas greater than 20 ft. The current track
of the storm does not favor a stronger coastal jet, but a more
northern track could support sustained storm winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The large upper level low has slid east to be centered over the
Alaska Peninsula with its associated cold air aloft extending into
Southwest Alaska, and keeping the area under an unstable and
showery regime. A trough rotating around this low will swing
across Southwest Alaska this afternoon, and evening bringing an
increase in showers and the potential for a few isolated
thunderstorms. The diurnal shower activity will taper off on
Tuesday as the upper low drops south in response to a very strong
low tracking into the Gulf. While precipitation will remain
predominantly to the east of the Alaska, and Aleutian Ranges
northerly winds will increase rapidly Tuesday night and Wednesday
in response to the presence of the deep Gulf low.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
As the upper low over the Alaska Peninsula drops south tonight and
a rather deep surface low tracks north into the Gulf Tuesday and
Wednesday, northerly winds will increase across the eastern
Bering, Bristol Bay and the Alaska Peninsula. Sustained winds
will increase into the 30 to 35 knot range with stronger gusts out
of the gaps, and passes in the Alaska Peninsula Tuesday night and
Wednesday.

Further west, a ridge building into the Western Aleutians today
and tonight will shift east to the Central Aleutians and Bering
Tuesday and Tuesday night. The next incoming low pressure system
will reach the Western Aleutians Tuesday afternoon then proceed
slowly east following behind the ridge. By Wednesday Night, the
ridge will reach the Eastern Aleutians, and then continue to
amplify over the Alaska Peninsula on Thursday as a frontal system
from the south lifts north into the Central Aleutians.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
There is fair agreement amongst the models of a deep low moving
into the Gulf around Tuesday evening. However, they are struggling
with the intensity of the low which could be the difference
between a gale force low and a storm force low. For now there is
higher confidence in the low remaining gale force. Regardless,
this system looks to bring rain to areas around Southcentral
Alaska into Thursday, with the heaviest for the north Gulf coast.
Meanwhile ridging will have moved in over the Bering with another
system trying to approach the Aleutians from the west, but being
largely held at bay by the ridge.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...gale...119 120 125 131 351 352.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EN
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JR
LONG TERM...DK