Gale Warning 298, NWS Anchorage, AK

140 
FZAK61 PAFC 012320
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
320 PM AKDT MON MAY 1 2017

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-021415-
320 PM AKDT MON MAY 1 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 996 MB LOW AT 55N 163W WILL MOVE TO 54N 160W AND DISSIPATE TUE. A 
996 MB LOW AT 44N 153W TONIGHT MOVES TO 56N 147W AND STRENGTHENS TO 
967 MB TUE NIGHT. THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE TO 57N 149W AND WEAKEN TO 
980 MB WED AFTERNOON. 

$$

PKZ351-021415-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
320 PM AKDT MON MAY 1 2017

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 35 TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 8 TO 11 FT BUILDING TO 12 TO 19 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.
.THU...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 FT.

$$

PKZ352-021415-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
320 PM AKDT MON MAY 1 2017

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT BECOMING W 25 TO 40 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 TO 19 FT. RAIN.
.WED...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

834 
FZAK61 PAFC 021146
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
346 AM AKDT TUE MAY 2 2017

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-030130-
346 AM AKDT TUE MAY 2 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 965 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW ENTERS THE GULF NEAR 55N 146W 
WED EVENING AND MOVES TO 55N 148W AT 989 MB BY THU MORNING.

$$

PKZ351-030130-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
346 AM AKDT TUE MAY 2 2017

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT INCREASING TO 35 TO 50 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT BUILDING TO 13 TO 21 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE TO SE WIND 35 TO 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 TO 40 KT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 17 TO 23 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE TO SE WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 15 TO 26 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.

$$

PKZ352-030130-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
346 AM AKDT TUE MAY 2 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W OF 146W...N WIND 30 TO 45 KT. E OF 146W...E WIND 
25 TO 35 KT BECOMING S 30 TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT.
RAIN.
.WED...S TO W WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S TO W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.

$$

395 
FZAK61 PAFC 022351
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
351 PM AKDT TUE MAY 2 2017

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-031300-
351 PM AKDT TUE MAY 2 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A STORM FORCE 965 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW ENTERS THE WESTERN GULF NEAR 
55N 146W THIS EVENING AND MOVES TO 57N 148W AT 998 MB BY THU EVENING.

$$

PKZ351-031300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
351 PM AKDT TUE MAY 2 2017

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 TO 55 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 TO 40 KT AFTER 
MIDNIGHT...EXCEPT BECOMING SE 25 TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT E OF 147W. 
SEAS 16 TO 23 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED...SE WIND 30 TO 45 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE UP TO 25 KT W OF 147W. 
SEAS 15 TO 26 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.

$$

PKZ352-031300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
351 PM AKDT TUE MAY 2 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W OF 147W...NE WIND 30 TO 45 KT. E OF 147W...S WIND 30 TO
45 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED...W OF 147W...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. E OF 147W...S WIND 30 TO 45 
KT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...W OF 147W...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. E OF 147W...S WIND 15 
TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT.
.THU...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT.

$$

291 
FZAK61 PAFC 031135
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
335 AM AKDT WED MAY 3 2017

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-040115-
335 AM AKDT WED MAY 3 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 969 MB LOW AT 57N 147W WILL WEAKEN TO 990 MB NEAR 58N 149W
TONIGHT...THEN MOVE TO 57N 146W AT 1005 MB THU NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ351-040115-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
335 AM AKDT WED MAY 3 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E OF 147W...SE WIND 30 TO 45 KT. W OF 147W...N WIND 
25 TO 35 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
15 TO 23 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 30 KT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT.

$$

PKZ352-040115-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
335 AM AKDT WED MAY 3 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW TO NW WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT.
.THU...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT.

$$

356 
FZAK61 PAFC 032333
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
333 PM AKDT WED MAY 3 2017

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-041330-
333 PM AKDT WED MAY 3 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 980 MB LOW AT 57N 148W WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND WEAKEN
TO 998 MB THU AFTERNOON...THEN TRACK EASTWARD TO 56N 141W AT 1011
MB BY FRI AFTERNOON. 

$$

PKZ351-041330-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
333 PM AKDT WED MAY 3 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ352-041330-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
333 PM AKDT WED MAY 3 2017

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.
.THU...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.FRI...W WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
600 PM AKDT Sun Apr 30 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A trough moving north across the Northern Gulf is kicking off
showers across Southcentral. In addition, gusty winds are evident
along Turnagain arm, Knik River Valley, and along the Copper
River. A weather front, associated with a pair of lows over the
central and eastern Bering Sea is bringing rain to Bristol Bay
and over the southern and western Gulf including Kodiak island.
Gusty easterly winds are evident in advance of this front from the
western Gulf to the eastern Kuskokwim Delta with fairly brisk Gap
flows through the Aleutian range.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
With the exception of a developing low heading north into the Gulf
Tuesday, the models are in good agreement through Tuesday
afternoon. The NAM is the weaker and farthest north of the model
solutions by taking the low into the southeastern offshore marine
zone Tuesday afternoon. The remaining models have a stronger low
much further south at this time (Tuesday Afternoon). For now will
lean closer to a GFS/EC with this feature.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Visibilities and ceiling will remain VFR. However, gusty
southeast winds this afternoon are expected continue through this
evening before diminishing. The surface wind direction should back
around to the northwest early Monday morning. On Monday afternoon
the surface winds shift back around to the southeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The frontal system currently moving over Kodiak Island will usher
in the beginning of a cloudier weather pattern for most of
the area that will last into mid-week. Ahead of this front, a
weakening pressure ridge along the gulf coast will bring gap winds
to Turnagain Arm and the Knik River Valley, which will also bring
gusty southeasterly winds to the Anchorage Bowl and Palmer areas
this evening. The front will then move into the northern Gulf on
Monday, bringing widespread rain to the southern Kenai/Gulf Coast.
Inland areas will remain largely dry from downsloping ahead of the
front, but downsloping will weaken as cold air moves in aloft,
which should allow for a few rain showers to develop. This cold
air aloft may also produce a few thunderstorms to Kodiak Island
overnight tonight, which would then spread northward into the
Kenai Peninsula in the afternoon/evening. Confidence is low on the
development of these thunderstorms as instability is quite
marginal with cool temperatures in the Gulf, but a few strikes
also can't be ruled out.

The active weather pattern will continue on Tuesday as a strong
gale force low moves into the central Gulf through Wednesday.
There still is some uncertainty in the exact placement of this
low, but there is increasing confidence that the low will remain
far enough south to keep much of the impacts over land limited to
the Gulf Coast. More importantly, there is very good agreement
that this low will bring widespread gale or potentially storm
force winds along with seas upwards of 20 ft to the Gulf that will
last into Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
With the main low hanging out in the vicinity of the Eastern
Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula, southwest Alaska will stay under
predominately southeast flow. This pattern will also keep the area
unstable with showers continuing into Tuesday. The strongest
showers will be Monday afternoon over the Bristol Bay area as a
trough pushes through from the south. It is borderline, but there
will be a slight chance of thunderstorms popping up around the
Bristol Bay area as it moves through Monday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
As the low near the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula slowly
tracks southeast it will bring northerly flow and showery
conditions to most areas of the Bering and Aleutians. The
exceptions will be areas under the effects of ridging that is
moving in over the Western Aleutians. This ridging looks to make
it to the Central Aleutians by Tuesday evening with another low
following behind from the west.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The storm in the Gulf on Thursday will slide inland into south
central Alaska by Friday. An upper level low south of the central
Aleutians on Friday will slowly move east through next weekend.
This will carry a surface low and frontal boundaries eastward and
northward through the period, focusing rainfall along the
Aleutians initially and then through south central Alaska on the
weekend. Blended towards the GFS early (Thursday into Thursday
night) then utilized the guidance from WPC, which was a blend of
the deterministic and ensemble means from the GFS and ECMWF.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale Warning 119 130 131.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DEK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DK