Gale Warning 277, NWS Anchorage, AK

681 
FZAK52 PAFC 081155
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
355 AM AKDT SAT APR 8 2017

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-090045-
355 AM AKDT SAT APR 8 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 986 MB LOW 150 NM EAST OF SAND POINT WEAKENS TO 1000 MB BY SUN 
EVENING WHILE REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY. A 978 MB LOW 210 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA MOVES TO 50 NM EAST OF ADAK AT 990 MB BY SUN 
AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL 
PUSH INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BY LATE THIS MORNING...THEN INTO 
THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS BY SUN MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING BY MON 
MORNING.

$$

PKZ150-090045-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
355 AM AKDT SAT APR 8 2017

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ155-090045-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
355 AM AKDT SAT APR 8 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ160-090045-
BRISTOL BAY-
355 AM AKDT SAT APR 8 2017

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 1 FOOT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 1 FOOT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ165-090045-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
355 AM AKDT SAT APR 8 2017

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ170-090045-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
355 AM AKDT SAT APR 8 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ171-090045-
UNALASKA BAY-
355 AM AKDT SAT APR 8 2017

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-090045-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
355 AM AKDT SAT APR 8 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ173-090045-
NIKLOSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
355 AM AKDT SAT APR 8 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6
FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ174-090045-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
355 AM AKDT SAT APR 8 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8
FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.

$$

PKZ175-090045-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
355 AM AKDT SAT APR 8 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ176-090045-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
355 AM AKDT SAT APR 8 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT BUILDING TO 17 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT.

$$

PKZ177-090045-
ADAK TO KISKA-
355 AM AKDT SAT APR 8 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT BERING SIDE...15 FT PACIFIC 
SIDE. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT BERING SIDE...22 FT PACIFIC 
SIDE. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT BERING SIDE...21 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.

$$

PKZ178-090045-
KISKA TO ATTU-
355 AM AKDT SAT APR 8 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT BERING SIDE...W WIND 35 KT PACIFIC SIDE. 
SEAS 14 FT BERING SIDE...21 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.

$$

PKZ179-090045-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
355 AM AKDT SAT APR 8 2017

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ180-090045-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
355 AM AKDT SAT APR 8 2017

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT.

$$

PKZ181-090045-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
355 AM AKDT SAT APR 8 2017

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT.

$$

PKZ185-090045-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
355 AM AKDT SAT APR 8 2017

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...NE 15 KT W 
OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...NE 20 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
539 AM AKDT Fri Apr 7 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A nearly stationary vertically stacked low over the Gulf south of
Kodiak Island continues to be the dominant feature controlling the
weather over all of southern mainland Alaska this morning. All
steering flow has abandoned the low, meaning drifting and
meandering will continue. As a result, the weather has been fairly
steady state in Southcentral. A persistent easterly flow around
the low continues to bring shower activity into Prince William
Sound and the southern Kenai Peninsula. Meanwhile the Turnagain
Arm and Knik winds continued today as their orientations remain
aligned with the broad flow.

The Anchorage sounding continues to show an impressively unstable
atmospheric regime over the area. Thus, it is no surprise that all
precipitation activity is in the form of rain showers at lower
elevations and snow showers at higher elevations. The freezing
level is about 3,000 feet. Another important point on the sounding
is much of the atmosphere remains dry, so this has limited the
coverage of shower activity in coastal areas with a good amount of
sunshine in inland locations. The meltdown of the snow pack
continued yesterday as many areas of the Susitna Valley got well
above 50 degrees once again with more plentiful sunshine
yesterday. Much of the rest of Southcentral was in the mid to
upper 40s.

A fairly similar pattern was also in place in Southwest Alaska.
Dry north to east flow kept precipitation activity minimal, though
cloud cover was widespread yesterday. For the most part
temperatures were cooler than in Southcentral with most areas in
the lower 40s, though Sleetmute got above 50 yesterday, while the
coastal Kuskokwim Delta remained chilly, near the freezing mark.

A lot of active weather continued over the Bering yesterday as a
front and an attendant low pressure system zipped through the
western Bering and central Aleutians. Meanwhile a deformation zone
on the western side of the Gulf low set up over the southern
Alaska Peninsula, where Cold Bay reported snowfall activity well
into the night, though the 24 hour total only amounted to 0.8
inches. The ridging between the two lows continues to get
squeezed out so very few areas saw much in the way of sunshine
today.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

The models continue to remain in very good agreement, with subtle
differences continuing between the models as to how far west the
Gulf low goes once the low over the Central Aleutians begins
kicking it westward. With the pattern in steady state, other than
in local effects, those differences will be negligible regardless
of the low position. Elsewhere the weakening of the Gulf low
should continue to temper down the winds area wide as the gradient
relaxes. A couple forecast challenges will be how long the
deformation zone over Cold Bay will persist, and if the Turnagain
Arm and Knik winds will redevelop this afternoon with peak
heating. A shortwave trough looks to skim near the Kuskokwim Delta
Saturday night from the northeast, and the models are in
relatively poor agreement on how far south that feature goes,
which will have potential implications on temperatures, cloud
cover, and potentially even a little bit of snow. So for most of
the area the forecast confidence remains high, but those details
in some areas locally lower the confidence.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Satellite imagery this morning continues to indicate a low
spinning south of Kodiak Island that is gradually weakening.
Along the northern portion of this low, there is a low level jet
with east winds that is supported by the baroclinicity as cold air
pushes along the northern periphery of the low. As a result gusty
winds and rain are expected across much of Kodiak Island and
Shelikof Straight today. Showers and wind gusts will diminish
through Saturday as the low weakens and drifts to the southwest.
In addition, any gap winds across Southcentral will continue to
diminish as pressure gradients relax over the next few days. The
sounding this morning once more indicates steep lapse rates and
fairly dry air. While a few showers are occurring in Prince
William Sound this morning, there is just enough cross barrier
flow and dry air to prevent any showers in downsloped areas.

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will persist throughout the day today. A few
isolated showers are expected along the mountains, but currently
no showers are expected at PANC itself. Winds will generally be
light and variable, with light southeasterly winds developing in
the afternoon and evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
Low pressure remains nearly stationary south of Kodiak Island
while filling through the weekend. Upper level waves rotating
through the flow keeps isolated to scattered rain and snow
showers across the southwest. Patchy fog is expected to develop
tonight across much of the Kuskokwim as the surface flow goes
calm and cooler air advects aloft with a new low center forming
near the Seward Peninsula. Fog conditions may need to be adjusted
for lower visibilities and perhaps spreading into Bristol Bay late
Saturday into Sunday; however kept conservative trends for the current
package as models have generally trended toward a conditionally
unstable environment.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...
The next front moves into the western Aleutians tonight bringing
gale strength winds accompanied by a mix of rain and snow along
the boundary. The front is expected to push across Shemya early
this evening and then track quickly north and east through the
weekend. Ridging across the central Bering shunts the front to the
south of the Pribilof Islands; however, weak short waves aloft
are expected to initiate isolated snow showers across the northern
Bering through the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

Beginning the extended forecast period Saturday night, the main
Pacific storm track will remain well south of the area of
operations as high latitude blocking remains strong over the
Beaufort Sea. Weak troughing will remain over Alaska, however,
without a deep moisture tap or well defined Pacific moisture
connection, precipitation activity inland looks sparse. With the
continued weak onshore flow pattern, expect temperatures to
continue to run at or slightly above average with many areas
seeing freeze/thaw diurnal patterns.

Late Monday the large scale synoptic pattern will shift with the
Pacific storm track shifting into the Bering. The first strong
gale force low looks to move through most of the Bering Sea by
Tuesday. A brief period of dry inland weather will become
dominated by the eastward progression of the Bering front, first
into Southwest Alaska as early as Tuesday night. At this juncture,
overall confidence drops quickly as there remains much
uncertainty with the strength of NPAC ridging extending into NW
Canada. Climatology would favor increased heights inland and a
slower eastward progression of the front--an idea supported by the
GFS, Canadian, and the respective ensembles. The ECMWF
deterministic remains an outlier as this solution moves the front
east and stalls it over the Alaska Range--the net effect being
robust moisture/precipitation will be possible across much of
Southcentral through most of the week after Tuesday. For now, this
forecast favors the former approach (i.e., stronger inland
ridging) which will keep the bulk of moisture across the Bering
and coastal SW AK into Kodiak Island. Should the ECMWF look to
verify in the coming days, then the latter scenario will need to
be reflected in upcoming forecasts. However, for now, the WPC
ensemble approach is favored.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gales...138 177 178.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PEPE
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...ELN
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KH
LONG TERM...JA