Gale Warning 235, NWS Anchorage, AK

885 
FZAK52 PAFC 192307
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
307 PM AKDT SUN MAR 19 2017

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-201200-
307 PM AKDT SUN MAR 19 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

BOGOSLOF VOLCANO 53 NM WEST OF DUTCH HARBOR REMAINS ACTIVE. A 
BROAD 977 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN 
ALEUTIANS THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-201200-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
307 PM AKDT SUN MAR 19 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ155-201200-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
307 PM AKDT SUN MAR 19 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ160-201200-
BRISTOL BAY-
307 PM AKDT SUN MAR 19 2017

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT.
.MON...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT.
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 15 KT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT.

$$

PKZ165-201200-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
307 PM AKDT SUN MAR 19 2017

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ170-201200-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
307 PM AKDT SUN MAR 19 2017

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ171-201200-
UNALASKA BAY-
307 PM AKDT SUN MAR 19 2017

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ172-201200-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
307 PM AKDT SUN MAR 19 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ173-201200-
NIKLOSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
307 PM AKDT SUN MAR 19 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ174-201200-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
307 PM AKDT SUN MAR 19 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.

$$

PKZ175-201200-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
307 PM AKDT SUN MAR 19 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ176-201200-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
307 PM AKDT SUN MAR 19 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.

$$

PKZ177-201200-
ADAK TO KISKA-
307 PM AKDT SUN MAR 19 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.

$$

PKZ178-201200-
KISKA TO ATTU-
307 PM AKDT SUN MAR 19 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.

$$

PKZ179-201200-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
307 PM AKDT SUN MAR 19 2017

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ180-201200-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
307 PM AKDT SUN MAR 19 2017

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT.
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 20 KT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT.

$$

PKZ181-201200-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
307 PM AKDT SUN MAR 19 2017

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT.

$$

PKZ185-201200-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
307 PM AKDT SUN MAR 19 2017

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...E 20 KT
W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. FREEZING 
SPRAY.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...E 20 KT W
OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. FREEZING 
SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND... SE
20 KT W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
341 PM AKDT Sat Mar 18 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The blocking pattern continues across the forecast area and is
evident by an upper ridge over the Bering Sea with upper low
centers southwest of the Aleutians and over the eastern
mainland/eastern Gulf. At the surface, high pressure remains over
the mainland with a persistent low pressure trough over the
northern Gulf. Out west, a strong surface low is evident southwest
of the Aleutians with a weak front stretching across the southern
Bering Sea to the eastern Aleutians.

Satellite imagery indicated shower activity over the Gulf
associated with the surface trough. Fair skies were generally
observed across much of the mainland, though clouds were starting
to blossom over western Prince William Sound this afternoon. A
broad band of stratus with flurries was pushing south across the
Kuskokwim Delta and into the eastern Bering Sea. Cloudy
conditions with some light precipitation, mainly rain west of
Unalaska, was observed along the surface frontal boundary. Gusty
easterly winds were observed along and in advance of the frontal
boundary out west. In Southcentral, pressure gradients continued
gusty outflow winds over the North Gulf Coast and along the
eastern Kenai Peninsula.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are in excellent agreement. The NAM Nest will be used
across Southcentral with the GFS out west.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
An upper level closed low drops down from the north into the
Southcentral Alaska region heading into Sunday. This is reflected
at the surface with a 1000 mb low located just offshore of the
eastern Kenai Peninsula. This will bring increased cloud cover to
the Anchorage Bowl. The northern Gulf coastal communities from
Seward northward into the Prince William Sound region will have
snow showers by early Sunday morning through Sunday night. By
Monday this system continues to remain stationary as it fills with
continued showery regime, but dissipates by late Monday evening
with offshore flow through the Southcentral Region.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Dry northerly flow will dominate the region through Monday as
upper level troughing remains over the area. Breezy winds will
redevelop in the afternoon hours as sunshine deepens the
atmospheric boundary layer which then decouples in the evening.
Expect continued well below normal temps for the overnight
periods.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
A closed upper low will remain over the far Western bering Sea
with a series of weak fronts intermittently moving through the
Western and Central Aleutians through Monday. High pressure will
continue to dominate the remainder of the Bering Sea.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The southern mainland will continue with dry conditions
throughout the extended forecast as ridging dominates over the
central and eastern Bering. A slow warming trend can be expected
throughout next week as the polar jet weakens along the western
coast. The most active weather will focus in the western Bering
and Aleutians as a parent low near the Kamchatka Peninsula moves
several fronts up from the Pacific. Snow showers are also expected
to continue over the gulf as a weaker surface low becomes better
organized mid week due to a strong upper level wave progged to
dive from the arctic and re-invigorate the weakening low. The
biggest challenge for the next week is the anticipation of the
ridge breaking down as the subtropical jet migrates north. There
is still a bit of uncertainty on this evolution since model
consistency lacks from run to run. A blend of the ECMWF and GFS
ensembles were used for the extended range.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Heavy Frz Spray 121 130 138 139 141 150 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...PD
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JA
LONG TERM...KH