Gale Warning 194, NWS Anchorage, AK

282 
FZAK62 PAFC 192307
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
307 PM AKDT SUN MAR 19 2017

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-201330-
307 PM AKDT SUN MAR 19 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

BOGOSLOF VOLCANO AT 54N 168W REMAINS ACTIVE. A BROAD 977 MB NORTH
PACIFIC LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS THROUGH TUE
AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-201330-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
307 PM AKDT SUN MAR 19 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.

$$

PKZ412-201330-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
307 PM AKDT SUN MAR 19 2017

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY NEAR
THE ICE EDGE.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY NEAR
THE ICE EDGE.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY NEAR
THE ICE EDGE.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ413-201330-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
307 PM AKDT SUN MAR 19 2017

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.

$$

PKZ414-201330-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
307 PM AKDT SUN MAR 19 2017

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 0 TO 5 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 0 TO 5 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 0 TO 5
FT.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 0 TO 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 0 TO 4 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3
TO
6 FT.

$$

120 
FZAK62 PAFC 201139
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
339 AM AKDT MON MAR 20 2017

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-210130-
339 AM AKDT MON MAR 20 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

BOGOSLOF VOLCANO AT 54N 168W REMAINS ACTIVE. A 981 MB NORTH 
PACIFIC LOW PUSHES A FRONT INTO NORTHERN KAMCHATKA BY WED MORNING.
THE LOW WEAKENS TO 1001 MB AS IT MOVES TO 53N 166E BY WED MORNING.
A TRAILING FRONT APPROACHES THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS BY WED MORNING.

$$

PKZ411-210130-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
339 AM AKDT MON MAR 20 2017

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.

$$

PKZ412-210130-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
339 AM AKDT MON MAR 20 2017

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY NEAR THE ICE 
EDGE.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY NEAR THE ICE
EDGE.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY NEAR THE ICE
EDGE.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.

$$

PKZ413-210130-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
339 AM AKDT MON MAR 20 2017

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...SE WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.

$$

PKZ414-210130-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
339 AM AKDT MON MAR 20 2017

.TODAY...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 TO 5 FT. 
FREEZING SPRAY NEAR THE ICE EDGE.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 TO 5 FT. 
FREEZING SPRAY NEAR THE ICE EDGE.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 1 TO 4 FT. FREEZING 
SPRAY NEAR THE ICE EDGE.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 0 TO 4 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 0
TO 4 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 TO 9 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
341 PM AKDT Sat Mar 18 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The blocking pattern continues across the forecast area and is
evident by an upper ridge over the Bering Sea with upper low
centers southwest of the Aleutians and over the eastern
mainland/eastern Gulf. At the surface, high pressure remains over
the mainland with a persistent low pressure trough over the
northern Gulf. Out west, a strong surface low is evident southwest
of the Aleutians with a weak front stretching across the southern
Bering Sea to the eastern Aleutians.

Satellite imagery indicated shower activity over the Gulf
associated with the surface trough. Fair skies were generally
observed across much of the mainland, though clouds were starting
to blossom over western Prince William Sound this afternoon. A
broad band of stratus with flurries was pushing south across the
Kuskokwim Delta and into the eastern Bering Sea. Cloudy
conditions with some light precipitation, mainly rain west of
Unalaska, was observed along the surface frontal boundary. Gusty
easterly winds were observed along and in advance of the frontal
boundary out west. In Southcentral, pressure gradients continued
gusty outflow winds over the North Gulf Coast and along the
eastern Kenai Peninsula.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are in excellent agreement. The NAM Nest will be used
across Southcentral with the GFS out west.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
An upper level closed low drops down from the north into the
Southcentral Alaska region heading into Sunday. This is reflected
at the surface with a 1000 mb low located just offshore of the
eastern Kenai Peninsula. This will bring increased cloud cover to
the Anchorage Bowl. The northern Gulf coastal communities from
Seward northward into the Prince William Sound region will have
snow showers by early Sunday morning through Sunday night. By
Monday this system continues to remain stationary as it fills with
continued showery regime, but dissipates by late Monday evening
with offshore flow through the Southcentral Region.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Dry northerly flow will dominate the region through Monday as
upper level troughing remains over the area. Breezy winds will
redevelop in the afternoon hours as sunshine deepens the
atmospheric boundary layer which then decouples in the evening.
Expect continued well below normal temps for the overnight
periods.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
A closed upper low will remain over the far Western bering Sea
with a series of weak fronts intermittently moving through the
Western and Central Aleutians through Monday. High pressure will
continue to dominate the remainder of the Bering Sea.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The southern mainland will continue with dry conditions
throughout the extended forecast as ridging dominates over the
central and eastern Bering. A slow warming trend can be expected
throughout next week as the polar jet weakens along the western
coast. The most active weather will focus in the western Bering
and Aleutians as a parent low near the Kamchatka Peninsula moves
several fronts up from the Pacific. Snow showers are also expected
to continue over the gulf as a weaker surface low becomes better
organized mid week due to a strong upper level wave progged to
dive from the arctic and re-invigorate the weakening low. The
biggest challenge for the next week is the anticipation of the
ridge breaking down as the subtropical jet migrates north. There
is still a bit of uncertainty on this evolution since model
consistency lacks from run to run. A blend of the ECMWF and GFS
ensembles were used for the extended range.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Heavy Frz Spray 121 130 138 139 141 150 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...PD
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JA
LONG TERM...KH