Gale Warning 196, NWS Anchorage, AK

230 
FZAK62 PAFC 291139
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
339 AM AKDT WED MAR 29 2017

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-300045-
339 AM AKDT WED MAR 29 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
BOGOSLOF VOLCANO AT 54N 168W REMAINS ACTIVE. A 966 MB NORTH
PACIFIC LOW AT 43N 177W WILL MOVE TO 54N 159W AT 999 MB BY FRI
MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES JUST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS BY
FRI MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE BERING SEA THROUGH FRI
MORNING. 

$$

PKZ411-300045-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
339 AM AKDT WED MAR 29 2017

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.

$$

PKZ412-300045-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
339 AM AKDT WED MAR 29 2017

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.

$$

PKZ413-300045-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
339 AM AKDT WED MAR 29 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ414-300045-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
339 AM AKDT WED MAR 29 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 0 TO 5 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 TO 8 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...NE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 TO 9 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 TO 10
FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS
4 TO 9 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 TO 7 FT.

$$

200 
FZAK62 PAFC 292332
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
332 PM AKDT WED MAR 29 2017

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-301330-
332 PM AKDT WED MAR 29 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
BOGOSLOF VOLCANO AT 54N 168W REMAINS ACTIVE. A 968 MB LOW AT 45N 
172W MOVES TO 52N 162W AT 967 MB THU...THEN MOVES TO 55N 157W AT 976 
MB FRI AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE BERING SEA THROUGH 
FRI MORNING. 

$$

PKZ411-301330-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
332 PM AKDT WED MAR 29 2017

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NW WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ412-301330-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
332 PM AKDT WED MAR 29 2017

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.

$$

PKZ413-301330-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
332 PM AKDT WED MAR 29 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.

$$

PKZ414-301330-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
332 PM AKDT WED MAR 29 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 TO 8 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 TO 10 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 TO 10
FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 TO 9 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 TO 7
FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 TO 7 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3
TO 7 FT.

$$

327 
FZAK62 PAFC 301129
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
329 AM AKDT THU MAR 30 2017

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-310100-
329 AM AKDT THU MAR 30 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
BOGOSLOF VOLCANO AT 54N 168W REMAINS ACTIVE. A 996 MB LOW AT 50N
165W MOVES TO 57N 151W AT 982 MB BY SAT MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED
FRONT PUSHES OVER THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS THROUGH
SAT MORNING. A 976 MB LOW FORMS NEAR 57N 159W FRI AFTERNOON
REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SAT MORNING.

$$

PKZ411-310100-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
329 AM AKDT THU MAR 30 2017

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ412-310100-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
329 AM AKDT THU MAR 30 2017

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT.

$$

PKZ413-310100-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
329 AM AKDT THU MAR 30 2017

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT.

$$

PKZ414-310100-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
329 AM AKDT THU MAR 30 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 TO 10 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 TO 10 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 TO 9 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 TO 7
FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3
TO 6 FT.

$$

865 
FZAK62 PAFC 302327
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
327 PM AKDT THU MAR 30 2017

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-311330-
327 PM AKDT THU MAR 30 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
BOGOSLOF VOLCANO AT 54N 168W REMAINS ACTIVE. A 968 MB LOW AT 53N 
160W WILL MOVE TO 55N 155W AT 978 MB FRI AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE TO THE
WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA SAT AT 990 MB. A 977 MB LOW WILL FORM NEAR 
58N 159W FRI AFTERNOON AND MOVE INLAND NEAR 59N 160W AT 980 MB FRI 
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN BERING THROUGH SAT. 

$$

PKZ411-311330-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
327 PM AKDT THU MAR 30 2017

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ412-311330-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
327 PM AKDT THU MAR 30 2017

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ413-311330-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
327 PM AKDT THU MAR 30 2017

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ414-311330-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
327 PM AKDT THU MAR 30 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 TO 12 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 TO 11 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 TO 9 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 TO 8 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 TO 7
FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3
TO 6 FT.

$$

754 
FZAK62 PAFC 311127
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
327 AM AKDT FRI MAR 31 2017

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-010045-
327 AM AKDT FRI MAR 31 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
BOGOSLOF VOLCANO AT 54N 168W REMAINS ACTIVE. A 971 MB LOW AT 55N 
158W SWINGS EAST OF KODIAK ISLAND TO 60N 153W AT 1001 MB BY SUN 
MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WRAPS TO THE EASTERN BERING WHILE 
THE TRAILING FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC. A 1012 MB LOW 
FORMS NEAR 50N 173E SAT AFTERNOON AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.

$$

PKZ411-010045-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
327 AM AKDT FRI MAR 31 2017

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ412-010045-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
327 AM AKDT FRI MAR 31 2017

.TODAY...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.

$$

PKZ413-010045-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
327 AM AKDT FRI MAR 31 2017

.TODAY...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ414-010045-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
327 AM AKDT FRI MAR 31 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 TO 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY ALONG THE ICE EDGE.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 TO 9 FT. 
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY ALONG THE ICE EDGE. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 TO 9 FT. SNOW 
SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 TO 6 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 TO 
6 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
420 AM AKDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
Upper level ridging persists over the Bering with a cold upper
level trough running north to south across mainland Alaska. A
surface low to the southwest of Shemya is extending a weak frontal
system across the western Aleutians. The surface low south of the
eastern Aleutians has dropped far enough south that its
associated surface front remains south of the Alaska Peninsula. A
broad surface trough containing several small low pressure
circulations extend from the southwestern Gulf north to the Kenai
Peninsula. Another trough/front stretches from Prince William
Sound along the northern Gulf Coast.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models continue to be challenged in the short term by the array
of various weak troughs and small lows rippling through the Gulf.
The EC appears to have the best initialization of the low east of
Kodiak based on scatterometer winds, while the 06Z NAM looks
closest with the low currently in Prince William Sound. Based on
the weakness of the forcing and continued diversity of model
solutions, confidence continues to remain low on the on the
forecast details through around Wednesday. As a deep north
Pacific low and strong frontal system approach Wednesday night,
models come into significantly better agreement with increased
forecast confidence from Thursday through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...With some light precipitation overrunning the Chugach
mountains this morning, periods of light snow are possible at
PANC, however with a dry air mass in place, accumulations should
be minimal with VFR conditions prevailing. A better chance for
accumulating snow will start after midnight tonight and continue
through through Wednesday morning...however confidence remains low
on both the timing of onset of overnight/Wednesday morning snow
and where exactly the snow band will set up.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Numerous weak features and subtle differences in model solutions
make for a challenging snow forecast for Southcentral. A weak low
over Western Prince William Sound weakens through this morning.
Snow with this feature is expected to be concentrated over the
north Gulf (mixed or rain in Cordova), eastern Kenai. Light snow
however is expected across the Anchorage Bowl and Matanuska Valley
through today. Yet another low heads north tonight and ends up
near the Southern Coast of the Kenai Peninsula and eventually into
Western Prince William Sound or there abouts during the early
morning hours Wednesday. Overall, tonight through Wednesday
afternoon appears to be the best chance for moderate accumulating
snow across the Anchorage Bowl and Matanuska Valley. Wednesday
night, the flow aloft takes a more southwesterly shift and should
push the heavier snow potential north of the Anchorage Bowl.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The majority of the Southwest Alaska region remains with offshore
flow resulting in drier conditions. The Gulf of Alaska has a weak
low tracking into the northern Gulf before moving inland near
Prince William Sound region by Wednesday morning. Therefore, look
for wrap-around moisture from this system to spread over into the
Lower Kuskokwim Valley southward into the Bristol Bay interior.
The majority of the aforementioned moisture will remain along the
Alaska/Aleutian Range through the midweek as the weak low exits
north into the central Alaska interior.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
The blocking high pressure over the Bering Sea continues to keep
low pressure systems on the periphery south of the Aleutian Chain.
By Wednesday, the jet stream transitions from zonal to meridional
southwesterly flow into the Gulf. While upstream a 170 knot
northwesterly jet streak digs into the base of the longwave
trough over the North Pacific ocean. This results in a storm force
low kicking out from the base of the longwave trough northward
towards the Central Aleutians. By Wednesday evening a 967 mb low
tracks near 47N 170W with an associated weather front stretching
through the Central/Eastern Aleutians. This brings gale force
northeasterly winds along the aforementioned region with
widespread moisture accompanied by warmer temperatures. As this
system intensifies, the pressure gradient will strengthen
resulting in storm force northeasterly winds on the Pacific side
from Dutch Harbor eastward towards the Shumagin Islands by
Thursday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The extended forecast looks to be quite an active one for much of
Alaska. Starting late Wednesday into Thursday, an upper level
trough extending over the Bering Sea and northern Pacific Ocean
will continue to amplify and elongate as an influx of energy from
the coast of Russia moves into the Pacific Ocean. As the trough
amplifies, a warmer and more moist air mass originating in the
subtropics will begin to be advected north toward the gulf coast
of Alaska. While models have struggled recently with the pattern
change, models are in near lock-step through Friday before some
discrepancies begin to develop.

The big story on Thursday and Friday will be a powerful low
pressure system moving northward toward the Alaska Peninsula which
will likely slam the gulf coast with a mixture of rain and snow.
Model guidance shows sfc to 500 mb thicknesses increasing and 850
mb temperatures approaching 0 degrees C which indicates a change
to rainfall along the coast. However, interior locations that see
precipitation will likely remain snow. The low track will be
important as this far west track will likely keep Anchorage and
normal downsloped locations on the dry side. Heading into the
weekend, models begin to struggle with the orientation of the
upper level trough as the ECMWF tries to flatten the trough out
which brings all the energy toward Juneau while the GFS keeps the
energy in the Gulf of Alaska. The take-away story here is that
this active pattern looks to be here to stay for the next 7 to 10
days but it's difficult to see as of now which areas may see the
most rainfall/snowfall. Stay tuned.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gales 172 174 176.
         Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 179 185 412 414.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JER
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PD
LONG TERM...MC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1059 AM AKDT TUE MAR 28 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0606 PM     SNOW             VALDEZ                  61.08N 146.30W
03/27/2017  M7.0 INCH                           AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            7 INCHES NEW SNOW FELL BETWEEN 6AM AND 6PM MONDAY.

0552 AM     SNOW             2 SE EAGLE RIVER        61.30N 149.52W
03/28/2017  M0.7 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

0821 AM     SNOW             1 NW GLEN ALPS          61.12N 149.72W
03/28/2017  M1.5 INCH                           AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

1000 AM     SNOW             6 SW ANCHORAGE          61.16N 149.98W
03/28/2017  M0.9 INCH                           AK   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

1002 AM     SNOW             VALDEZ                  61.08N 146.30W
03/28/2017  E15.0 INCH                          AK   PUBLIC

            12-15 INCH STORM TOTAL

&&

RDUELL