Brisk Wind Advisory 42, NWS Anchorage, AK

897 
FZAK52 PAFC 291146
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
346 AM AKDT WED MAR 29 2017

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-300100-
346 AM AKDT WED MAR 29 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
BOGOSLOF VOLCANO 53 NM WEST OF DUTCH HARBOR REMAINS ACTIVE. A 966 MB
NORTH PACIFIC LOW 600 NM SOUTH OF ADAK WILL MOVE TO 125 NM SOUTHEAST
OF SAND POINT AT 999 MB BY FRI MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES
JUST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS BY FRI MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER THE BERING SEA THROUGH FRI MORNING. 

$$

PKZ150-300100-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
346 AM AKDT WED MAR 29 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6
FT BUILDING TO 11 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW.
.THU...E WIND 45 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15
FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ155-300100-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
346 AM AKDT WED MAR 29 2017

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. FROM
THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN 
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW.
.THU...NE WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ160-300100-
BRISTOL BAY-
346 AM AKDT WED MAR 29 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT.
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT.

$$

PKZ165-300100-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
346 AM AKDT WED MAR 29 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.THU...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ170-300100-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
346 AM AKDT WED MAR 29 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ171-300100-
UNALASKA BAY-
346 AM AKDT WED MAR 29 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
.THU...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ172-300100-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
346 AM AKDT WED MAR 29 2017

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT BUILDING TO 19 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 50 KT BECOMING N 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 19
FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ173-300100-
NIKLOSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
346 AM AKDT WED MAR 29 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ174-300100-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
346 AM AKDT WED MAR 29 2017

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
20 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 45 KT BECOMING N 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 19
FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ175-300100-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
346 AM AKDT WED MAR 29 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ176-300100-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
346 AM AKDT WED MAR 29 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ177-300100-
ADAK TO KISKA-
346 AM AKDT WED MAR 29 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ178-300100-
KISKA TO ATTU-
346 AM AKDT WED MAR 29 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ179-300100-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
346 AM AKDT WED MAR 29 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ180-300100-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
346 AM AKDT WED MAR 29 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT.

$$

PKZ181-300100-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
346 AM AKDT WED MAR 29 2017

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT.

$$

PKZ185-300100-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
346 AM AKDT WED MAR 29 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY ALONG THE ICE EDGE.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
420 AM AKDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
Upper level ridging persists over the Bering with a cold upper
level trough running north to south across mainland Alaska. A
surface low to the southwest of Shemya is extending a weak frontal
system across the western Aleutians. The surface low south of the
eastern Aleutians has dropped far enough south that its
associated surface front remains south of the Alaska Peninsula. A
broad surface trough containing several small low pressure
circulations extend from the southwestern Gulf north to the Kenai
Peninsula. Another trough/front stretches from Prince William
Sound along the northern Gulf Coast.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models continue to be challenged in the short term by the array
of various weak troughs and small lows rippling through the Gulf.
The EC appears to have the best initialization of the low east of
Kodiak based on scatterometer winds, while the 06Z NAM looks
closest with the low currently in Prince William Sound. Based on
the weakness of the forcing and continued diversity of model
solutions, confidence continues to remain low on the on the
forecast details through around Wednesday. As a deep north
Pacific low and strong frontal system approach Wednesday night,
models come into significantly better agreement with increased
forecast confidence from Thursday through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...With some light precipitation overrunning the Chugach
mountains this morning, periods of light snow are possible at
PANC, however with a dry air mass in place, accumulations should
be minimal with VFR conditions prevailing. A better chance for
accumulating snow will start after midnight tonight and continue
through through Wednesday morning...however confidence remains low
on both the timing of onset of overnight/Wednesday morning snow
and where exactly the snow band will set up.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Numerous weak features and subtle differences in model solutions
make for a challenging snow forecast for Southcentral. A weak low
over Western Prince William Sound weakens through this morning.
Snow with this feature is expected to be concentrated over the
north Gulf (mixed or rain in Cordova), eastern Kenai. Light snow
however is expected across the Anchorage Bowl and Matanuska Valley
through today. Yet another low heads north tonight and ends up
near the Southern Coast of the Kenai Peninsula and eventually into
Western Prince William Sound or there abouts during the early
morning hours Wednesday. Overall, tonight through Wednesday
afternoon appears to be the best chance for moderate accumulating
snow across the Anchorage Bowl and Matanuska Valley. Wednesday
night, the flow aloft takes a more southwesterly shift and should
push the heavier snow potential north of the Anchorage Bowl.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The majority of the Southwest Alaska region remains with offshore
flow resulting in drier conditions. The Gulf of Alaska has a weak
low tracking into the northern Gulf before moving inland near
Prince William Sound region by Wednesday morning. Therefore, look
for wrap-around moisture from this system to spread over into the
Lower Kuskokwim Valley southward into the Bristol Bay interior.
The majority of the aforementioned moisture will remain along the
Alaska/Aleutian Range through the midweek as the weak low exits
north into the central Alaska interior.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
The blocking high pressure over the Bering Sea continues to keep
low pressure systems on the periphery south of the Aleutian Chain.
By Wednesday, the jet stream transitions from zonal to meridional
southwesterly flow into the Gulf. While upstream a 170 knot
northwesterly jet streak digs into the base of the longwave
trough over the North Pacific ocean. This results in a storm force
low kicking out from the base of the longwave trough northward
towards the Central Aleutians. By Wednesday evening a 967 mb low
tracks near 47N 170W with an associated weather front stretching
through the Central/Eastern Aleutians. This brings gale force
northeasterly winds along the aforementioned region with
widespread moisture accompanied by warmer temperatures. As this
system intensifies, the pressure gradient will strengthen
resulting in storm force northeasterly winds on the Pacific side
from Dutch Harbor eastward towards the Shumagin Islands by
Thursday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The extended forecast looks to be quite an active one for much of
Alaska. Starting late Wednesday into Thursday, an upper level
trough extending over the Bering Sea and northern Pacific Ocean
will continue to amplify and elongate as an influx of energy from
the coast of Russia moves into the Pacific Ocean. As the trough
amplifies, a warmer and more moist air mass originating in the
subtropics will begin to be advected north toward the gulf coast
of Alaska. While models have struggled recently with the pattern
change, models are in near lock-step through Friday before some
discrepancies begin to develop.

The big story on Thursday and Friday will be a powerful low
pressure system moving northward toward the Alaska Peninsula which
will likely slam the gulf coast with a mixture of rain and snow.
Model guidance shows sfc to 500 mb thicknesses increasing and 850
mb temperatures approaching 0 degrees C which indicates a change
to rainfall along the coast. However, interior locations that see
precipitation will likely remain snow. The low track will be
important as this far west track will likely keep Anchorage and
normal downsloped locations on the dry side. Heading into the
weekend, models begin to struggle with the orientation of the
upper level trough as the ECMWF tries to flatten the trough out
which brings all the energy toward Juneau while the GFS keeps the
energy in the Gulf of Alaska. The take-away story here is that
this active pattern looks to be here to stay for the next 7 to 10
days but it's difficult to see as of now which areas may see the
most rainfall/snowfall. Stay tuned.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gales 172 174 176.
         Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 179 185 412 414.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JER
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PD
LONG TERM...MC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1059 AM AKDT TUE MAR 28 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0606 PM     SNOW             VALDEZ                  61.08N 146.30W
03/27/2017  M7.0 INCH                           AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            7 INCHES NEW SNOW FELL BETWEEN 6AM AND 6PM MONDAY.

0552 AM     SNOW             2 SE EAGLE RIVER        61.30N 149.52W
03/28/2017  M0.7 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

0821 AM     SNOW             1 NW GLEN ALPS          61.12N 149.72W
03/28/2017  M1.5 INCH                           AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

1000 AM     SNOW             6 SW ANCHORAGE          61.16N 149.98W
03/28/2017  M0.9 INCH                           AK   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

1002 AM     SNOW             VALDEZ                  61.08N 146.30W
03/28/2017  E15.0 INCH                          AK   PUBLIC

            12-15 INCH STORM TOTAL

&&

RDUELL