Gale Warning 146, NWS Anchorage, AK

820 
FZAK52 PAFC 120025
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
325 PM AKST SAT FEB 11 2017

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-121300-
325 PM AKST SAT FEB 11 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

BOGOSLOF VOLCANO 53 NM WEST OF DUTCH HARBOR REMAINS ACTIVE. AN ELONGATED 
NORTH PACIFIC LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS WILL MOVE TO 300
NM SOUTH OF CHIGNIK AT 965 MB SUN AFTERNOON...THEN TO 200 NM
SOUTHEAST OF CHIGNIK AT 965 MB MON AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN BERING THROUGH MON.

$$

PKZ150-121300-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
325 PM AKST SAT FEB 11 2017

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N OF
CHIRIKOF ISLAND.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N OF CHIRIKOF ISLAND. SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ155-121300-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
325 PM AKST SAT FEB 11 2017

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ160-121300-
BRISTOL BAY-
325 PM AKST SAT FEB 11 2017

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT.
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 15 KT.

$$

PKZ165-121300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
325 PM AKST SAT FEB 11 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7
FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ170-121300-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
325 PM AKST SAT FEB 11 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ171-121300-
UNALASKA BAY-
325 PM AKST SAT FEB 11 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ172-121300-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
325 PM AKST SAT FEB 11 2017

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ173-121300-
NIKLOSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
325 PM AKST SAT FEB 11 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ174-121300-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
325 PM AKST SAT FEB 11 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ175-121300-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
325 PM AKST SAT FEB 11 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ176-121300-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
325 PM AKST SAT FEB 11 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ177-121300-
ADAK TO KISKA-
325 PM AKST SAT FEB 11 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ178-121300-
KISKA TO ATTU-
325 PM AKST SAT FEB 11 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ179-121300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
325 PM AKST SAT FEB 11 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ180-121300-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
325 PM AKST SAT FEB 11 2017

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...N WIND 35 KT.

$$

PKZ181-121300-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
325 PM AKST SAT FEB 11 2017

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT.
.MON...N WIND 30 KT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...N WIND 40 KT.

$$

PKZ185-121300-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
325 PM AKST SAT FEB 11 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
445 PM AKST Fri Feb 10 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

An arctic trough encompasses much of mainland Alaska today. At the
base of the longwave trough is a closed upper-low centered over
the southern Kenai Peninsula. This low is providing the upper-level
support for some light snow showers across Southcentral. With cold
dry air wrapping around the low, moisture has been fairly limited
in the snow growth zone through the morning hours. This resulted
in mainly light snow over the western Kenai, Anchorage, and the
southern Mat-Su Valleys this morning. Slightly further east, a
surface low is moving into Prince William Sound from the northern
Gulf. Cold air transported over the warmer water around the east
side of the low is supporting convective showers over the northern
Gulf Coast. As this unstable air makes its way northwestward over
the coastal mountains, lighter snow showers over Anchorage and the
western Kenai are intensifying this afternoon as they become more
convective in nature.

Behind the arctic trough axis, cold dry northerly air moving into
the Southwest Mainland will continue the below normal
temperatures with bitter windchills. An occluding North Pacific
low spins south of the central Aleutians. An associated frontal
boundary is stretched across the Aleutians and southern Bering,
with gale force winds and rain and snow showers being the main
impacts over the islands and surrounding waters.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models are in good agreement through Saturday night, however they
start to diverge Sunday with the timing of a warm front moving
northward through the Gulf. This leads to some uncertainty in the
timing of the precipitation spreading along the Gulf Coast Sunday
through Monday. There is additional uncertainty on the degree of
downsloping that will occur as the front approaches the Chugach
Mountains Sunday evening. This leads to lower confidence on the
timing and amount of precipitation forecasted through Sunday
night, particularly in the western shadow of the Chugach
Mountains.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Mainly MVFR conditions are expected this afternoon,
transitioning to VFR this evening as snowfall diminishes and then
ends. Winds will be generally light and from the north.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2...Sat and Sun)...
Light snow will continue across much of the area through the
evening before cold dry air sets in for the weekend. A 978 mb low
is sitting just south of the classic "sweet spot" in Prince
William Sound. This is allowing a healthy amount of moisture to
wrap over the mountains and spread into much of the area. There
has been light snow across much of the Cook Inlet and Matanuska
Valley through the day, but there will likely be a break this
evening as some dry air works into the area. The exception to
this break is with the banding out over the Cook Inlet and along
the Western Kenai Peninsula. These bands are very narrow but
continue to put down heavy snow where they do line up in places
like Seldovia. The other spot that will not see much reprieve is
the Portage Valley through Whittier. Gusty westerly winds continue
to blow through there. When coupled with the moderate to heavy
snow, visibilities have dropped to near zero at times. A winter
weather advisory for blowing snow remains in effect for those
areas.

As the upper level support pivots over the Kenai Peninsula,
Anchorage up through Palmer could see some more light snow work
back in. But we do not expect much in the way of accumulations
with snow ratios running closer to 1:10 and colder/drier air
starting to mix in. We have lowered amounts across that area with
this forecast package. Snow and winds will also diminish across
the Kachemak Bay and Whittier areas Saturday morning. Cold air
will then start to filter in as skies start to clear across the
area through Saturday. Snow showers will hang on a bit longer
across the eastern Prince William Sound over towards Cordova on
Sat. But these too will diminish as dry air takes over.

Sunday will bring a pattern shift from cold and dry to warmer and
moist. There could be some patchy fog Sun morning along open water
and in low-lying valleys. By late in the day, flow switches to
more southerly and clouds will increase. Snow will start along the
Gulf Coast by late Sun morning and in Kodiak by Sun afternoon as a
strong front moves northward.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

An arctic trough will continue to dive southward over the next
several days and bring the return of well below normal temperatures
to the region. This very cold air mass will be very dry as it
originated not too far from the north pole and has no interactions
with an atmospheric river beginning to set up over the northern
Pacific Ocean. Based on several climate sites across Southwest
Alaska, both high and low temperatures will range from 20 to 30
degrees below normal. On Sunday, an area of low pressure south of
the Alaska Peninsula will move into the Gulf of Alaska and bring
snow chances back to the Aleutian Range but the remainder of
Southwest Alaska should remain on the dry side through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

As the upper level trough over the Bering Sea amplifies in the
coming days, a series of low pressure systems will track south of
the Aleutian Islands. Upslope snow showers will continue across
the Bering side of the Alaska Peninsula and eastern Aleutians
over the next 24 to 48 hours. This shower activity should wane
heading into Sunday as storms track further south as the upper
level pattern amplifies. Some blowing snow could be seen at the
Pribilof Islands tonight with scattered snow showers continuing
with winds gusting near gale force.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
Confidence continues to increase in the significant pattern change
early next week as warm, moist southerly flow and an active storm
track pushes into the Gulf of Alaska. The initial surface low
pushing into the southwestern Gulf Sunday afternoon will continue
north-northeast Monday night to track along the outer coast of
Kodiak Island Tuesday morning. This surface low track, combined
with an inverted trough extending north across the Kenai
Peninsula and into the Susitna Valley will act to reduce
downsloping as the front lifts north Sunday night and Monday.
Both the inverted trough and the surface low's eventual path
north across the Barren Islands and up Cook Inlet as it weakens
have the potential bring a good bit of snow further inland into
Southcentral Alaska on Monday if temperatures remain cold enough
long enough.

For the Anchorage area and Matanuska Valley, light snow will start
Sunday night with the potential for significant accumulations on
Monday. Temperatures however will be warming Monday so the snow
will become heavy and wet possibly mixing with rain at the lowest
elevations in the afternoon and evening. With cold northerly winds
increasing out of Broad Pass and into the Susitna Valley as the
low approaches on Monday, confidence is higher in precipitation
remaining snow with amounts in the range of a foot or more
possible at higher elevations. The second low coming up Tuesday
looks warmer with strong downsloping southeasterly winds also
increasing temperatures, so rain rather than snow looks more
likely for most low elevation locations. A third deep low follows
a similar track for a round of strong winds and rain. Areas along
the Gulf coast will get hit hardest in terms of precipitation
totals with between 5 and 7 inches of rain possible between Sunday
night and Wednesday.

Along the coast snow will quickly turn over to rain at the lower
elevations but there are concerns in the Coastal Mountains for
snow becoming increasingly wet and heavy on top of significant new
accumulations. Snow levels will increase to around 1500 ft along
the immediate Gulf Coast on Monday and then to 1500 to 2000 ft
over a broader area Monday night. Tuesday looks to be the warmest
portion of the storm with snow levels around 2500 ft. By the third
frontal system Wednesday snow levels will fall back to around 2000
ft and then return to sea level as cooler air pushes back in by Thursday.

Southwest Alaska and the Bering Sea will remain on the cold side
of the baroclinic zone through much of the time period with
temperatures solidly in the snow range. As the various frontal
systems from Southcentral Alaska rotate west across the
Alaska/Aleutian Range and into Southwest Alaska, periods of snow
will be likely through the week with moderate to heavy snow
possible at times where deformation bands set up. Over the
Bering, persistent northerly flow will continue instability driven
snow showers from the contrast between the cold air temperatures
and warmer sea surface.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Wind chill Advisory 155.
		 Winter Weather Advisory for Blowing Snow 125.

MARINE...Gale 129-132 138 170 172-176.
		 Heavy Freezing Spray 121 126-139 141 150 160 165 179 180 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MC
LONG TERM...JR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1100 PM AKST FRI FEB 10 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 PM     SNOW             2 NE HOMER              59.65N 151.48W
02/10/2017  M6.0 INCH                           AK   PUBLIC

            6 INCHES OVER 4 HRS. SNOWFALL HEAVY AT AT TIMES.

1030 PM     SNOW             1 WNW HOMER             59.64N 151.55W
02/10/2017  E8.0 INCH                           AK   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            7-8 INCHES OVER PAST 14 HRS.

&&

KUTZ