Gale Warning 145, NWS Anchorage, AK

038 
FZAK51 PAFC 111243
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
343 AM AKST SAT FEB 11 2017

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-120130-
343 AM AKST SAT FEB 11 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 985 MB LOW 60 NM EAST OF SEWARD WILL MOVE ONSHORE NEAR 35 NM
WEST OF YAKUTAT SAT EVENING. A 981 MB LOW 300 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK
CITY MOVES ONSHORE 60 NM NORTHWEST OF YAKUTAT SUN MORNING. THE
ASSOCIATED FRONT SWEEPS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA BY SUN MORNING. A
989 MB LOW FORMS 25 NM SOUTHEAST OF SEWARD SUN MORNING AND MERGES
WITH A 965 MB LOW 245 NM SOUTHEAST OF CHIGNIK MON MORNING.

$$

PKZ119-120130-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
343 AM AKST SAT FEB 11 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 8
FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.

$$

PKZ120-120130-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
343 AM AKST SAT FEB 11 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT NEAR THE COAST THIS
MORNING. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...WINDS BECOMING W 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT.

$$

PKZ121-120130-
RESURRECTION BAY-
343 AM AKST SAT FEB 11 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT THIS MORNING. SEAS 4 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY DURING THE EVENING.
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ125-120130-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
343 AM AKST SAT FEB 11 2017

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ126-120130-
PORT VALDEZ-
343 AM AKST SAT FEB 11 2017

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-120130-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
343 AM AKST SAT FEB 11 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY THIS MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. WIDESPREAD SNOW
SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-120130-
VALDEZ ARM-
343 AM AKST SAT FEB 11 2017

.TODAY...NE WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. WIDESPREAD SNOW
SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-120130-
PASSAGE CANAL-
343 AM AKST SAT FEB 11 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IN THE EVENING.
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ130-120130-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
343 AM AKST SAT FEB 11 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ131-120130-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
343 AM AKST SAT FEB 11 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY EXCEPT HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY NEAR THE BARREN ISLANDS. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IN THE EVENING NEAR THE BARREN
ISLANDS. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ132-120130-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
343 AM AKST SAT FEB 11 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT EXCEPT N 20 KT NORTH OF DANGEROUS CAPE.
SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY EXCEPT HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY NORTH OF
DANGEROUS CAPE.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10
FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ136-120130-
CHINIAK BAY-
343 AM AKST SAT FEB 11 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ137-120130-
MARMOT BAY-
343 AM AKST SAT FEB 11 2017

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ138-120130-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
343 AM AKST SAT FEB 11 2017

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3
FT BUILDING TO 12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ139-120130-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
343 AM AKST SAT FEB 11 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY AND SUNDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO
2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ140-120130-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
343 AM AKST SAT FEB 11 2017

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.  SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT.

$$

PKZ141-120130-
KACHEMAK BAY-
343 AM AKST SAT FEB 11 2017

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
510 AM AKST Fri Feb 10 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
Water vapor satellite imagery shows a broad trough over the state
this morning with a closed upper low digging south over the
Kuskokwim Valley. Another lobe of energy is rounding the base of
this trough and approaching the Southeast. Two other closed lows
are located to the west, with one south of Atka and the other
southwest of Shemya. At the surface, snow showers are developing
around a low in the northern gulf with light snow activity across
a weak convergent zone which stretches along a broad line from
Palmer to the southern Cook Inlet. Offshore winds increased
overnight as the gulf low tightened it's core, with the gustiest
conditions along the western coastal areas of the gulf.

Cold air is advecting across the Southwest on the backside of the
low. Light snow showers are also noted along the east Bering and
surrounding coast as a several weak shortwaves are moving south
along the western side of the trough. A mix of rain and snow
showers are occurring along a weak frontal boundary across the
Aleutian chain.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are relatively good agreement through the weekend, however
they are all struggling with snow amounts and timing. Models have
continued with the trend that moisture would develop and spread
west through today and then taper off by Saturday as the strong
polar wave shifts into the gulf. The associated surface low in
the gulf is expected to diminish as it moves south on Saturday.
Two fast moving waves approach the gulf late Saturday and will
need to be monitored as they have the potential to bring
additional precipitation; one dives from the Northwest and the
other races in from the North Pacific.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...MVFR conditions are expected to improve to VFR late this
afternoon as a dry and colder air mass advects from the interior.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2...Fri and Sat)...

The main forecast challenge and also the greatest degree of
uncertainty will be with the areal coverage and snowfall amounts
inland through tonight.

General synoptic setup: A strong surface low complex over the
northern Gulf retrogrades westward this afternoon as a strong
upper low drops southeast across the southern Kenai Pen. The
surface low then moves south overnight as the upper center moves
north and weakens across the Copper River Basin.

Snow should become more widespread across much of Southcentral
through the day with the heavier snowfall along the coasts and
over western Prince William Sound/Eastern Kenai. Snowfall west of
the Chugach, particularly across the Anchorage Bowl/MAT Valley,
should increase in intensity through the day. QPF (liquid Water
Content) will be fairly low, but cooler air moving in should boost
snow amounts as snow ratios increase. Current thinking is that
snowfall will be measurable, but should remain below advisory
levels. With the exception of the eastern Copper River Basin, snow
should taper of over most areas overnight tonight/Saturday
morning.

Cold advection with strong pressure gradients will continue
westerly gales to local storms (Barren Islands) with strong gap
flows over the eastern Kenai and Thompson Pass. Winds should
diminish across the western Gulf tonight, but will linger into Sat
elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A frigid arctic air mass and offshore flow will remain entrenched
over the southwest mainland through Sunday morning as the main
upper low shifts east of the Alaska Range while the longwave
trough axis remains overhead. This will keep temperatures well
below zero across most of the area, with the exception of
locations along the coast where temperatures may climb to around
zero during the day. The combination of these cold temperatures
and persistent northerly winds will continue to produce advisory
level wind chills across the Kuskokwim Delta through Saturday
morning before winds begin to diminish in response to a weakening
pressure gradient.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
A compact and relatively deep North Pacific low passing south of
Atka will bring gale force winds to the Central and Eastern
Aleutians through tonight as an associated front brushes the
Pacific side of the chain. Otherwise, cold northeast flow will
encompass much of the Bering through the weekend. This will yield
widespread Small Craft Advisory level winds and freezing spray
along with scattered convective snow showers across much of the
region.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
Significant pattern changes begin this weekend as a more active
southerly storm track pushes into the western Gulf. The first in a
series of deep lows bringing abundant warm and moist air, will
enter the western Gulf south of the Alaska Peninsula Sunday. While
the surface low tracks to just south of Kodiak Island Sunday
night, the accompanying front will lift north to stretch across
the entire Gulf Coast bringing windy conditions and snow quickly
changing over to rain along the immediate coast. Further inland
over Southcentral Alaska, the snow will last longer with the location
of the rain/snow line a rather tricky forecast. The potential for
some areas to receive significant snow fall followed by warming
temperatures and abundant rain has the potential to make for a
rather messy weather pattern.

This general flow pattern will continue through midweek with at
least two additional lows tracking through the western or central
Gulf. Each of these systems will bring the stream of warm, moist
air further inland across Southcentral Alaska. To the west, a
colder air mass will persist over the Bering with Southwest
Alaska on along the boundary between the two air masses. As
frontal systems swing from Southcentral Alaska to the west over
the Alaska and Aleutian Ranges, periodic snow will be likely in
Southwest Alaska with heavy snow possible at times where favorable
deformation bands set up and persist.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Blowing snow advisory 125.
MARINE...Storm 130.
         Heavy Freezing Spray 130 137 138 139 141 150 160 165 170
         179 180 185.
         Gales 131 132 138 150 170 172 173 174 175 176 177 .

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KH
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CB
LONG TERM...TP