Gale Warning 134, NWS Anchorage, AK

095 
FZAK52 PAFC 071703 CCA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
803 AM AKST TUE FEB 7 2017

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-080515-
803 AM AKST TUE FEB 7 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
BOGOSLOF VOLCANO 53 NM WEST OF DUTCH HARBOR REMAINS ACTIVE. A WEAK
FRONT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST BERING AND DISSIPATES WED MORNING.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE LINGERS AROUND BRISTOL BAY THROUGH THU MORNING.
A 965 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW EXTENDS A NEW FRONT OVER THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS FROM WED MIDDAY THROUGH THU MORNING.

$$

PKZ150-080515-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
803 AM AKST TUE FEB 7 2017

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ155-080515-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
803 AM AKST TUE FEB 7 2017

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ160-080515-
BRISTOL BAY-
803 AM AKST TUE FEB 7 2017

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT.
.WED...W WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 20 KT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT.

$$

PKZ165-080515-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
803 AM AKST TUE FEB 7 2017

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ170-080515-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
803 AM AKST TUE FEB 7 2017

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ171-080515-
UNALASKA BAY-
803 AM AKST TUE FEB 7 2017

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ172-080515-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
803 AM AKST TUE FEB 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ173-080515-
NIKLOSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
803 AM AKST TUE FEB 7 2017

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ174-080515-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
803 AM AKST TUE FEB 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ175-080515-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
803 AM AKST TUE FEB 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ176-080515-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
803 AM AKST TUE FEB 7 2017

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ177-080515-
ADAK TO KISKA-
803 AM AKST TUE FEB 7 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT BERING SIDE... 22 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ178-080515-
KISKA TO ATTU-
803 AM AKST TUE FEB 7 2017

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. BERING SIDE...SEAS 15 FT. PACIFIC SIDE...SEAS
17 FT BUILDING TO 25 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.WED...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 26 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ179-080515-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
803 AM AKST TUE FEB 7 2017

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ180-080515-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
803 AM AKST TUE FEB 7 2017

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ181-080515-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
803 AM AKST TUE FEB 7 2017

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 25 KT.

$$

PKZ185-080515-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
803 AM AKST TUE FEB 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...NE 20 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

956 
FZAK52 PAFC 080032
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
332 PM AKST TUE FEB 7 2017

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-081315-
332 PM AKST TUE FEB 7 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

BOGOSLOF VOLCANO 53 NM WEST OF DUTCH HARBOR REMAINS ACTIVE. A NEW FRONT
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS LATE TONIGHT AND MERGES WITH A
WEAK FRONT IN THE WESTERN BERING AND REMAINS THROUGH FRI. A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER BRISTOL BAY THROUGH FRI.

$$

PKZ150-081315-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
332 PM AKST TUE FEB 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ155-081315-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
332 PM AKST TUE FEB 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ160-081315-
BRISTOL BAY-
332 PM AKST TUE FEB 7 2017

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT.
.WED...W WIND 10 KT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 25 KT.

$$

PKZ165-081315-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
332 PM AKST TUE FEB 7 2017

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ170-081315-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
332 PM AKST TUE FEB 7 2017

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ171-081315-
UNALASKA BAY-
332 PM AKST TUE FEB 7 2017

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ172-081315-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
332 PM AKST TUE FEB 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.

$$

PKZ173-081315-
NIKLOSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
332 PM AKST TUE FEB 7 2017

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ174-081315-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
332 PM AKST TUE FEB 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT.

$$

PKZ175-081315-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
332 PM AKST TUE FEB 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ176-081315-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
332 PM AKST TUE FEB 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT.

$$

PKZ177-081315-
ADAK TO KISKA-
332 PM AKST TUE FEB 7 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT BERING SIDE...21 FT PAC SIDE.
RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ178-081315-
KISKA TO ATTU-
332 PM AKST TUE FEB 7 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...BERING SIDE...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 FT. PAC SIDE...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT
BUILDING TO 22 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.WED...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT BERING SIDE...25 FT PAC SIDE.
RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ179-081315-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
332 PM AKST TUE FEB 7 2017

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ180-081315-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
332 PM AKST TUE FEB 7 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 1 FOOT.
.WED...NW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ181-081315-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
332 PM AKST TUE FEB 7 2017

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 25 KT.

$$

PKZ185-081315-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
332 PM AKST TUE FEB 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...NE 20 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
435 PM AKST Mon Feb 6 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

Southcentral Alaska remains under the influence of an upper-
level ridge with high pressure at the surface. This is allowing
for a persistence of cold and dry weather to start the work week.
Areas of dense fog in the upper Cook Inlet vicinity continue to
pose a forecast challenge this morning, however lack of moisture
over the rest of Southcentral is keeping skies clear and
temperatures colder in the Mat-Su Valleys and the Copper River
Basin. Over the southwestern Mainland, an upper-level arctic low
advancing southwestward along the coast is cutting into the ridge.
With a relatively dry airmass in place over the Mainland however,
the main effect of this upper-low is a slight increase in cloud
cover today over the Kuskokwim Delta and Bristol Bay region.
Further west, a weakening front remains stretched along the
southwestern Bering and the central Aleutians, while surface high
pressure holds steady over the eastern Bering.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models are in very good agreement in the short term with the
surface ridge holding through Tuesday then starting to break down
Wednesday. With a fairly quiet synoptic pattern, fog and local
effects have been the main forecast challenge through Wednesday
before precipitation chances return Wednesday night. High
resolution models were used in the short term to best capture the
local effects.

&&

.AVIATION...
Fog has cleared out more dramatically this afternoon than it has
over the past few days. However, fog will push back in by this
evening bringing back LIFR conditions through Tuesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Freezing fog with low visibility will be the main short term
concern over the area. The remnants of Cook Inlet/Turnagain and
Knik Arm stratus/fog are eroding in places but still expansive and
thick enough that they will likely build back in tonight.
Conditions remain conducive for that scenario as weak high
pressure will sit over the region and allow for the surface/fog
top to radiate out. Most of the region will enjoy cloud-free sky
and colder minimum temperatures as the only clouds will be the
fog/stratus around Cook Inlet. The story is the same for Tuesday
and Tuesday night. While ridging remains over head, upper level
heights are falling, so the subsidence inversions shouldn't be
quite as pronounced. The fog threat ends on Wednesday as an upper
low drifts toward the area bringing in a new flow pattern aloft.
Overall, expect light winds and below normal temperatures with no
precipitation.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Clear skies and weak winds will continue overnight until flow
over the Bristol Bay area becomes southwesterly as the low drops
down into the eastern Bering from the north. This setup looks to
bring very light snow to the area that will linger into Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
Most of the activity over the Bering and Aleutians will stay near
the Western and Central Aleutians with two different fronts. The
first is over the area and will continue to diminish into
tomorrow. As this front fades another will approach from the
North Pacific. It will bring more rain and stronger winds to the
area Tuesday night into Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
Snow shower activity will be on the rise on Wednesday ahead of a
cut off upper level low meandering through Southwest Alaska, and
into Southcentral Alaska by Thursday morning. On Wednesday
afternoon, this cut off low will merge with a trough dropping out
of the arctic (actually has some polar origin) and help bring down
some colder air to much of the state. The trough will bring quite
a punch of upper level lift while cold air advection behind the
trough looks quite promising to bring snowfall to portions of
Southcentral Alaska on Thursday. Following this first push of cold
air on Wednesday and Thursday, a reinforcing shot of cold air will
drop out of the arctic once again on Friday to help bring back
some well below normal temperatures to much of the state.

At the same time, a pretty significant pattern change will start
to take place over the Bering Sea and northern Pacific Ocean. A
series of shortwaves will propagate eastward along the upper
level trough situated between Kamchatka and Attu on Wednesday
which will in turn amplify the upper level pattern. This will help
set up a moisture tap well into the subtropics that will start
pushing toward the gulf coast of Alaska late Saturday into Sunday.
The forecast gets very tricky this weekend as the upper levels
become quite a mess with multiple shortwaves embedded in the
amplified flow which impacts the location and propagation of
surface features. One can say with high confidence that several
areas of low pressures will move into the Gulf of Alaska this
weekend through early next week, but it's nearly impossible to
even imagine where these features may track.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Dense fog advisory 101.
MARINE...Gale 177 178 Heavy Freezing Spray 180.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...ML
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DK
LONG TERM...PEPE