Gale Warning 107, NWS Anchorage, AK

652 
FZAK62 PAFC 071704 CCA
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
804 AM AKST TUE FEB 7 2017

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-080515-
804 AM AKST TUE FEB 7 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
BOGOSLOF VOLCANO AT 54N 168W REMAINS ACTIVE. A WEAK FRONT MOVES
INTO THE SOUTHWEST BERING AND DISSIPATES WED MORNING. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE LINGERS AROUND BRISTOL BAY THROUGH THU MORNING. A 965 MB
NORTH PACIFIC LOW EXTENDS A NEW FRONT OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS FROM WED MIDDAY THROUGH THU MORNING.

$$

PKZ411-080515-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
804 AM AKST TUE FEB 7 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.WED...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.

$$

PKZ412-080515-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
804 AM AKST TUE FEB 7 2017

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ413-080515-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
804 AM AKST TUE FEB 7 2017

.TODAY...SE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ414-080515-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
804 AM AKST TUE FEB 7 2017

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...N WIND 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.

$$

681 
FZAK62 PAFC 080033
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
333 PM AKST TUE FEB 7 2017

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-081515-
333 PM AKST TUE FEB 7 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

BOGOSLOF VOLCANO AT 54N 168W REMAINS ACTIVE. A NEW FRONT MOVES
INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS LATE TONIGHT AND MERGES WITH A WEAK
FRONT IN THE WESTERN BERING AND REMAINS THROUGH FRI. A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER BRISTOL BAY THROUGH FRI. 

$$

PKZ411-081515-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
333 PM AKST TUE FEB 7 2017

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.WED...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

PKZ412-081515-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
333 PM AKST TUE FEB 7 2017

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N OF
57N.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ413-081515-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
333 PM AKST TUE FEB 7 2017

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT.

$$

PKZ414-081515-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
333 PM AKST TUE FEB 7 2017

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE AFTERNOON.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

056 
FZAK62 PAFC 081244
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
344 AM AKST WED FEB 8 2017

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-090200-
344 AM AKST WED FEB 8 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
BOGOSLOF VOLCANO AT 54N 168W REMAINS ACTIVE. A FRONT ALONG THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN BERING
EARLY THU MORNING THEN DIMINISHES EARLY FRI MORNING. A 978 MB NORTH
PACIFIC LOW MOVES TO 46N 173W EARLY FRI MORNING PUSHING A FRONT
TOWARD THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS.

$$

PKZ411-090200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
344 AM AKST WED FEB 8 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ412-090200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
344 AM AKST WED FEB 8 2017

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ413-090200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
344 AM AKST WED FEB 8 2017

.TODAY...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT.

$$

PKZ414-090200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
344 AM AKST WED FEB 8 2017

.TODAY...N WIND 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
435 PM AKST Mon Feb 6 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

Southcentral Alaska remains under the influence of an upper-
level ridge with high pressure at the surface. This is allowing
for a persistence of cold and dry weather to start the work week.
Areas of dense fog in the upper Cook Inlet vicinity continue to
pose a forecast challenge this morning, however lack of moisture
over the rest of Southcentral is keeping skies clear and
temperatures colder in the Mat-Su Valleys and the Copper River
Basin. Over the southwestern Mainland, an upper-level arctic low
advancing southwestward along the coast is cutting into the ridge.
With a relatively dry airmass in place over the Mainland however,
the main effect of this upper-low is a slight increase in cloud
cover today over the Kuskokwim Delta and Bristol Bay region.
Further west, a weakening front remains stretched along the
southwestern Bering and the central Aleutians, while surface high
pressure holds steady over the eastern Bering.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models are in very good agreement in the short term with the
surface ridge holding through Tuesday then starting to break down
Wednesday. With a fairly quiet synoptic pattern, fog and local
effects have been the main forecast challenge through Wednesday
before precipitation chances return Wednesday night. High
resolution models were used in the short term to best capture the
local effects.

&&

.AVIATION...
Fog has cleared out more dramatically this afternoon than it has
over the past few days. However, fog will push back in by this
evening bringing back LIFR conditions through Tuesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Freezing fog with low visibility will be the main short term
concern over the area. The remnants of Cook Inlet/Turnagain and
Knik Arm stratus/fog are eroding in places but still expansive and
thick enough that they will likely build back in tonight.
Conditions remain conducive for that scenario as weak high
pressure will sit over the region and allow for the surface/fog
top to radiate out. Most of the region will enjoy cloud-free sky
and colder minimum temperatures as the only clouds will be the
fog/stratus around Cook Inlet. The story is the same for Tuesday
and Tuesday night. While ridging remains over head, upper level
heights are falling, so the subsidence inversions shouldn't be
quite as pronounced. The fog threat ends on Wednesday as an upper
low drifts toward the area bringing in a new flow pattern aloft.
Overall, expect light winds and below normal temperatures with no
precipitation.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Clear skies and weak winds will continue overnight until flow
over the Bristol Bay area becomes southwesterly as the low drops
down into the eastern Bering from the north. This setup looks to
bring very light snow to the area that will linger into Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
Most of the activity over the Bering and Aleutians will stay near
the Western and Central Aleutians with two different fronts. The
first is over the area and will continue to diminish into
tomorrow. As this front fades another will approach from the
North Pacific. It will bring more rain and stronger winds to the
area Tuesday night into Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
Snow shower activity will be on the rise on Wednesday ahead of a
cut off upper level low meandering through Southwest Alaska, and
into Southcentral Alaska by Thursday morning. On Wednesday
afternoon, this cut off low will merge with a trough dropping out
of the arctic (actually has some polar origin) and help bring down
some colder air to much of the state. The trough will bring quite
a punch of upper level lift while cold air advection behind the
trough looks quite promising to bring snowfall to portions of
Southcentral Alaska on Thursday. Following this first push of cold
air on Wednesday and Thursday, a reinforcing shot of cold air will
drop out of the arctic once again on Friday to help bring back
some well below normal temperatures to much of the state.

At the same time, a pretty significant pattern change will start
to take place over the Bering Sea and northern Pacific Ocean. A
series of shortwaves will propagate eastward along the upper
level trough situated between Kamchatka and Attu on Wednesday
which will in turn amplify the upper level pattern. This will help
set up a moisture tap well into the subtropics that will start
pushing toward the gulf coast of Alaska late Saturday into Sunday.
The forecast gets very tricky this weekend as the upper levels
become quite a mess with multiple shortwaves embedded in the
amplified flow which impacts the location and propagation of
surface features. One can say with high confidence that several
areas of low pressures will move into the Gulf of Alaska this
weekend through early next week, but it's nearly impossible to
even imagine where these features may track.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Dense fog advisory 101.
MARINE...Gale 177 178 Heavy Freezing Spray 180.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...ML
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DK
LONG TERM...PEPE